Dataset Information

Seasonal and Long-Term Groundwater Unloading in the Central Valley Modifies Crustal Stress.

ABSTRACT: Changes in terrestrial water content cause elastic deformation of the Earth's crust. This deformation is thought to play a role in modulating crustal stress and seismicity in regions where large water storage fluctuations occur. Groundwater is an important component of total water storage change in California, helping to drive annual water storage fluctuations and loss during periods of drought. Here we use direct estimates of groundwater volume loss during the 2007-2010 drought in California's Central Valley obtained from high resolution Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar-based vertical land motion data to investigate the effect of groundwater volume change on the evolution of the stress field. We show that GPS-derived elastic load models may not capture the contribution of groundwater to terrestrial water loading, resulting in an underestimation of nontectonic crustal stress change. We find that groundwater unloading during the drought causes Coulomb stress change of up to 5.5 kPa and seasonal fluctuations of up to 2.6 kPa at seismogenic depth. We find that faults near the Valley show the largest stress change and the San Andreas fault experiences only ~40 Pa of Coulomb stress change over the course of a year from groundwater storage change. Annual Coulomb stress change peaks dominantly in the fall, when the groundwater level is low; however, some faults experience peak stress in the spring when groundwater levels are higher. Additionally, we find that periods of increased stress correlate with higher than average seismic moment release but are not correlated with an increase in the number of earthquakes. This indicates groundwater loading likely contributes to nontectonic loading of faults, especially near the Valley edge, but is not a dominant factor in modulation of seismicity in California because the amplitude of stress change declines rapidly with distance from the Valley. By carefully quantifying and spatially locating groundwater fluctuations, we will improve our understanding of what drives nontectonic stress and forces that modulate seismicity in California.

SUBMITTER: Carlson G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7607378 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Seasonal and Long-Term Groundwater Unloading in the Central Valley Modifies Crustal Stress.

Carlson G G Shirzaei M M Werth S S Zhai G G Ojha C C

Journal of geophysical research. Solid earth 20200120 1

Changes in terrestrial water content cause elastic deformation of the Earth's crust. This deformation is thought to play a role in modulating crustal stress and seismicity in regions where large water storage fluctuations occur. Groundwater is an important component of total water storage change in California, helping to drive annual water storage fluctuations and loss during periods of drought. Here we use direct estimates of groundwater volume loss during the 2007-2010 drought in California's ...[more]

PMID: 33163318

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Project description:IntroductionLong-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4) that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data.MethodsWe studied 10 years (2000-2010) of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases.FindingsTransmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001-2007) then DENV-4 (2008-2010). After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼ 70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season.ConclusionsDengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

Dataset Information

Seasonal and Long-Term Groundwater Unloading in the Central Valley Modifies Crustal Stress.

Publications

Seasonal and Long-Term Groundwater Unloading in the Central Valley Modifies Crustal Stress.

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