Dataset Information

Influence of socio-economic, demographic and climate factors on the regional distribution of dengue in the United States and Mexico.

ABSTRACT:

Background

This study examines the impact of climate, socio-economic and demographic factors on the incidence of dengue in regions of the United States and Mexico. We select factors shown to predict dengue at a local level and test whether the association can be generalized to the regional or state level. In addition, we assess how different indicators perform compared to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), an indicator that is commonly used to predict the future distribution of dengue.

Methods

A unique spatial-temporal dataset was created by collating information from a variety of data sources to perform empirical analyses at the regional level. Relevant regions for the analysis were selected based on their receptivity and vulnerability to dengue. A conceptual framework was elaborated to guide variable selection. The relationship between the incidence of dengue and the climate, socio-economic and demographic factors was modelled via a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), which also accounted for the spatial and temporal auto-correlation.

Results

The socio-economic indicator (representing household income, education of the labour force, life expectancy at birth, and housing overcrowding), as well as more extensive access to broadband are associated with a drop in the incidence of dengue; by contrast, population growth and inter-regional migration are associated with higher incidence, after taking climate into account. An ageing population is also a predictor of higher incidence, but the relationship is concave and flattens at high rates. The rate of active physicians is associated with higher incidence, most likely because of more accurate reporting. If focusing on Mexico only, results remain broadly similar, however, workforce education was a better predictor of a drop in the incidence of dengue than household income.

Conclusions

Two lessons can be drawn from this study: first, while higher GDP is generally associated with a drop in the incidence of dengue, a more granular analysis reveals that the crucial factors are a rise in education (with fewer jobs in the primary sector) and better access to information or technological infrastructure. Secondly, factors that were shown to have an impact of dengue at the local level are also good predictors at the regional level. These indices may help us better understand factors responsible for the global distribution of dengue and also, given a warming climate, may help us to better predict vulnerable populations on a larger scale.

SUBMITTER: Watts MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7607660 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Influence of socio-economic, demographic and climate factors on the regional distribution of dengue in the United States and Mexico.

Watts Matthew J MJ Kotsila Panagiota P Mortyn P Graham PG Sarto I Monteys Victor V Urzi Brancati Cesira C

International journal of health geographics 20201102 1

<h4>Background</h4>This study examines the impact of climate, socio-economic and demographic factors on the incidence of dengue in regions of the United States and Mexico. We select factors shown to predict dengue at a local level and test whether the association can be generalized to the regional or state level. In addition, we assess how different indicators perform compared to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), an indicator that is commonly used to predict the future distribution of den ...[more]

PMID: 33138827

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Project description:Background/objectivesUnderstanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon.MethodsWe used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections.ResultsThe spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3 °C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double.ConclusionIn New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries.

Project description:BackgroundDengue imposes a substantial economic and disease burden in most tropical and subtropical countries. Dengue incidence and severity have dramatically increased in Mexico during the past decades. Having objective and comparable estimates of the economic burden of dengue is essential to inform health policy, increase disease awareness, and assess the impact of dengue prevention and control technologies.Methods and findingsWe estimated the annual economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico for the years 2010-2011. We merged multiple data sources, including a prospective cohort study; patient interviews and macro-costing from major hospitals; surveillance, budget, and health data from the Ministry of Health; WHO cost estimates; and available literature. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to derive 95% certainty levels (CL) for our estimates. Results suggest that Mexico had about 139,000 (95%CL: 128,000-253,000) symptomatic and 119 (95%CL: 75-171) fatal dengue episodes annually on average (2010-2011), compared to an average of 30,941 symptomatic and 59 fatal dengue episodes reported. The annual cost, including surveillance and vector control, was US$170 (95%CL: 151-292) million, or $1.56 (95%CL: 1.38-2.68) per capita, comparable to other countries in the region. Of this, $87 (95%CL: 87-209) million or $0.80 per capita (95%CL: 0.62-1.12) corresponds to illness. Annual disease burden averaged 65 (95%CL: 36-99) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per million population. Inclusion of long-term sequelae, co-morbidities, impact on tourism, and health system disruption during outbreaks would further increase estimated economic and disease burden.ConclusionWith this study, Mexico joins Panama, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, and Thailand as the only countries or areas worldwide with comprehensive (illness and preventive) empirical estimates of dengue burden. Burden varies annually; during an outbreak, dengue burden may be significantly higher than that of the pre-vaccine level of rotavirus diarrhea. In sum, Mexico's potential economic benefits from dengue control would be substantial.

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Dataset Information

Influence of socio-economic, demographic and climate factors on the regional distribution of dengue in the United States and Mexico.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Influence of socio-economic, demographic and climate factors on the regional distribution of dengue in the United States and Mexico.

Similar Datasets

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