Distinct Body Mass Index Trajectories to Young-Adulthood Obesity and Their Different Cardiometabolic Consequences.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Norris T
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7610444 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Although much research has been conducted on the role adult body mass index (BMI) plays in mortality, there have been fewer studies that evaluated the associations of BMI in young adulthood and adult weight trajectory with mortality, and it remains uncertain whether associations differ by race or sex. We prospectively examined the relationships of BMI in young adulthood (21 years of age) and adult obesity trajectory with later-life mortality rates among 75,881 men and women in the Southern Community Cohort Study. Study participants were enrolled between 2002 and 2009 at ages 40-79 years and were followed through December, 2011. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. There were 7,301 deaths in the 474,970 person-years of follow-up. Participants who reported being overweight or obese as young adults had mortality rates that were 19% (95% confidence interval: 12, 27) and 64% (95% confidence interval: 52, 78) higher, respectively, than those of their normal weight counterparts. The results did not significantly differ by race or sex. Participants who reported being obese in young adulthood only or in both young and middle adulthood experienced mortality rates that were 40%-90% higher than those of participants who were nonobese at either time. These results suggest that obesity in young adulthood is associated with higher mortality risk regardless of race, sex, and obesity status in later life.
| S-EPMC4552269 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundReports on body mass index (BMI) trajectories from childhood into late adolescence, their determinants, and subsequent cardiometabolic risk markers, particularly among European populations have been few. Moreover, sex-specific investigation is necessary considering the sex difference in BMI, and the sex-specific association between BMI and some cardiometabolic risk markers.MethodsUsing a sample from the DOrtmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed study, we explored sex-specific trajectories of the BMI standard deviation score (SDS) from 4 to 18 years of age in 354 males and 335 females by latent (class) growth models. The determinants of trajectory were assessed by logistic regression. We identified cardiometabolic risk markers that were highly associated with BMI SDS trajectory by random forest regression, and finally we used generalized linear models to investigate differences in the identified cardiometabolic risk markers between pairs of trajectories.ResultsWe observed four: 'low-normal weight', 'mid-normal weight', 'high-normal weight', and 'overweight', and three: ''low-normal weight', 'mid-normal weight', and 'high-normal weight' trajectories in males and females, respectively. Higher maternal prepregnancy BMI was associated with the 'overweight' trajectory, and with 'high-normal weight' trajectory in both sexes. In addition, employed mothers and first-born status were associated with 'high-normal weight' trajectory in females. BMI SDS trajectory was associated with high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and interleukin-18 (IL-18) in males, and diastolic blood pressure and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in females. However, only males following the 'overweight' trajectory had significantly higher IL-18 when compared to their 'low-normal weight' counterpart.ConclusionsWe identified sex-specific distinct trajectories of BMI SDS from childhood into late adolescence, higher maternal prepregnancy BMI as a common determinant of the 'high-normal weight' and 'overweight' trajectories, and 'overweight' trajectory being associated with elevated IL-18 in late adolescence-young adulthood. This study emphasizes the role of maternal prepregnancy BMI in overweight, and highlights IL-18 as a cardiometabolic signature of overweight across life.
| S-EPMC6339359 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background This longitudinal study aims to characterize longitudinal body mass index ( BMI ) trajectories during young adulthood (20-40 years) and examine the impact of level-independent BMI trajectories on hypertension risk. Methods and Results The cohort consisted of 3271 participants (1712 males and 1559 females) who had BMI and blood pressure ( BP ) repeatedly measured 4 to 11 times during 2004 to 2015 and information on incident hypertension. Four distinct trajectory groups were identified using latent class growth mixture model: low-stable (n=1497), medium-increasing (n=1421), high-increasing (n=291), sharp-increasing (n=62). Model-estimated levels and linear slopes of BMI at each age point between ages 20 and 40 were calculated in 1-year intervals using the latent class growth mixture model parameters and their first derivatives, respectively. Compared with the low-stable group, the hazard ratios and 95% CI were 2.42 (1.88, 3.11), 4.25 (3.08, 5.87), 11.17 (7.60, 16.41) for the 3 increasing groups, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, the standardized odds ratios and 95% CI of model-estimated BMI level for incident hypertension increased in 20 to 35 years, ranging from 0.80 (0.72-0.90) to 1.59 (1.44-1.75); then decreased gradually to 1.54 (1.42-1.68). The standardized odds ratio s of level-adjusted linear slopes increased from 1.22 (1.09-1.37) to 1.79 (1.59-2.01) at 20 to 24 years; then decreased rapidly to 1.12 (0.95-1.32). Conclusions These results indicate that the level-independent BMI trajectories during young adulthood have significant impact on hypertension risk. Age between 20 and 30 years is a crucial period for incident hypertension, which has implications for early prevention.
| S-EPMC6507204 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Little research has addressed the heterogeneity and mortality risk in body mass index (BMI) trajectories among older populations. Applying latent class trajectory models to 9,538 adults aged 51 to 77 years from the US Health and Retirement Study (1992-2008), we defined 6 latent BMI trajectories: normal weight downward, normal weight upward, overweight stable, overweight obesity, class I obese upward, and class II/III obese upward. Using survival analysis, we found that people in the overweight stable trajectory had the highest survival rate, followed by those in the overweight obesity, normal weight upward, class I obese upward, normal weight downward, and class II/III obese upward trajectories. The results were robust after controlling for baseline demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, smoking status, limitations in activities of daily living, a wide range of chronic illnesses, and self-rated health. Further analysis suggested that BMI trajectories were more predictive of mortality risk than was static BMI status. Using attributable risk analysis, we found that approximately 7.2% of deaths after 51 years of age among the 1931-1941 birth cohort were due to class I and class II/III obese upward trajectories. This suggests that trajectories of increasing obesity past 51 years of age pose a substantive threat to future gains in life expectancy.
| S-EPMC3842899 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundObesity is a leading risk for poor health outcomes in England. We examined best- and worst-case scenarios for the future trajectory of the obesity epidemic.MethodsTaking the last 27 years of Health Survey for England data, we determined both position and shape of the adult body mass index (BMI) distribution and projected these parameters 20 years forward in time. For the best-case scenario, we fitted linear models, allowing for a quadratic relationship between the outcome variable and time, to reflect a potential reversal in upwards trends. For the worst-case scenario, we fitted non-linear models that applied an exponential function to reflect a potential flattening of trends over time. Best-fitting models were identified using Monte Carlo cross-validation on 1991-2014 data, and predictions of population prevalence across five BMI categories were then validated using 2015-17 data.ResultsBoth linear and non-linear models showed a close fit to observed data (mean absolute error <2%). In the best-case scenario, the proportion of the population at increased risk (BMI≥25kg/m2) is predicted to fall from 66% in 2017 to 53% (95% confidence interval: 41% to 64%) in 2035. In the worst-case scenario, this proportion is likely to remain relatively stable overall- 64% (37% to 90%) in 2035 -but with an increasing proportion of the population at highest risk (BMI≥35kg/m2).ConclusionsWhile obesity prediction depends on chosen modelling methods, even under optimistic assumptions it is likely that the majority of the English population will still be at increased risk of disease due to their weight until at least 2035, without greater allocation of resources to effective interventions.
| S-EPMC8172072 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND & AIMS:Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is an epidemic. Identifying modifiable risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease development is essential to design effective prevention programmes. We tested whether 25-year patterns of body mass index change are associated with midlife non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. METHODS:In all, 4423 participants from Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults, a prospective population-based biracial cohort (age 18-30), underwent body mass index measurement at baseline (1985-1986) and 3 or more times over 25 years. At Year 25, 3115 had liver fat assessed by non-contrast computed tomography. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was defined as liver attenuation ?40 Hounsfield Units after exclusions. Latent mixture modelling identified 25-year trajectories in body mass index per cent change (%?) from baseline. RESULTS:We identified four distinct trajectories of BMI%?: stable (26.2% of cohort, 25-year BMI %? = 3.1%), moderate increase (46.0%, BMI%? = 21.7%), high increase (20.9%, BMI%? = 41.9%) and extreme increase (6.9%, BMI%? = 65.9%). Y25 non-alcoholic fatty liver disease prevalence was higher in groups with greater BMI %?: 4.1%, 9.3%, 13.0%, and 17.6%, respectively (P-trend <.0001). In multivariable analyses, participants with increasing BMI%? had increasingly greater odds of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease compared to the stable group: OR: 3.35 (95% CI: 2.07-5.42), 7.80 (4.60-13.23) and 12.68 (6.68-24.09) for moderate, high and extreme body mass index increase, respectively. Associations were only moderately attenuated when adjusted for baseline or Y25 body mass index. CONCLUSIONS:Trajectories of weight gain during young adulthood are associated with greater non-alcoholic fatty liver disease prevalence in midlife independent of metabolic covariates and baseline or concurrent body mass index highlighting the importance of weight maintenance throughout adulthood as a target for primary non-alcoholic fatty liver disease prevention.
| S-EPMC5867197 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PURPOSE:We aimed to estimate group-based trajectories of body mass index (BMI) in a longitudinal cohort of young women and determine the association between sexual identity and BMI trajectory group, adjusting for obesity risk factors. METHODS:We analyzed data from females in waves I-IV of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. Sexual identity was categorized as heterosexual, mostly heterosexual, bisexual, or lesbian (homosexual/mostly homosexual). We conducted group-based trajectory modeling of BMI with a censored normal distribution and a cubic relationship with age to identify three BMI trajectory groups. Multinomial logit regressions predicted the risk of trajectory membership associated with sexual identity, adjusting for background characteristics. RESULTS:At wave I, the mean (n = 7,801) age was 15.9 years (95% confidence interval: 15.6-16.1). Subjects were 16.3% African-American; and 80.0% heterosexual, 15.9% mostly heterosexual, 2.5% bisexual, and 1.7% lesbian. Group-based trajectory modeling identified three BMI trajectory groups characterized as (1) minimal obesity (62.2%), (2) developing obesity (29.9%), and (3) progressive obesity (8.0%). In multinomial logit regressions adjusted for age, race, parental obesity and education, sexual abuse, household income, screen time, depressive symptoms, and rural residence, lesbian women had a nearly two-fold higher relative risk of being in the developing obesity trajectory group (relative risk ratio = 1.91, 95% confidence interval: 1.10-3.32) relative to the minimal obesity group, compared with heterosexual women. CONCLUSIONS:Lesbian women were at increased risk of membership in the developing obesity trajectory group compared with heterosexual women. Adjusting for obesity risk factors had minimal impact on the point estimates for this association.
| S-EPMC5701844 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo identify distinct body mass index (BMI) percentile trajectories during early childhood and examine adiposity levels in childhood and early adulthood according to the BMI percentile trajectories.MethodsIowa Fluoride Study cohort parents (n = 1,093) reported their child's anthropometric data on average six times between ages 0 and 23 months. A subset of the cohort underwent DXA scans at approximately age 8 years (n = 495) and again at approximately age 19 years (n = 314). Group-based trajectory analysis was conducted to identify distinct BMI percentile trajectories from ages 0 to 23 months. Sex-specific age-adjusted linear regression analyses were conducted to compare fat mass index in childhood and early adulthood among subgroups that follow the distinct BMI percentile patterns.ResultsFour BMI percentile patterns were identified: consistently low (group 1: 9.8%), increase in the second year (group 2: 33.7%), increase in the first year (group 3: 23.9%), and consistently high (group 4: 32.6%). Compared with group 2 females, groups 3 and 4 females had higher fat mass index in childhood and early adulthood (P < 0.05). However, no significant difference was found in males.ConclusionsFemales who experience a steep increase of BMI percentile in the first year of life, as opposed to a steep increase in the second year of life, may have higher body fat later in life, but this was not found in males.
| S-EPMC5182145 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study explored the relationship between BMI trajectories and the duration of obesity in Thai children diagnosed with hypertension. Demographic and blood pressure data from 536 children (270 boys, 50.3%) from a school in Bangkok, Thailand were collected. Hypertension was defined as blood pressure above the cutoff values specified in the 2017 American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines on 3 occasions. Records of BMI over the previous 3 years were reviewed. The prevalence of hypertension was 2.61% (14/536). Complete data on BMI trajectories were available in 421 non-hypertensive and 12 hypertensive children. The increase in BMI z-score over the previous 3 years was significantly greater in the hypertensive group than the non-hypertensive group, 1.45 (95% CI 0.42 to 1.88) versus 0.09 (95% CI: -0.35, 0.65), P = .008. In conclusion, children with a confirmed diagnosis of hypertension had a greater increase in BMI over the past 3 years than non-hypertensive children.
| S-EPMC8111269 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHistorically, cutoff points for childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity have been based on population-specific percentiles derived from cross-sectional data. To obtain cutoff points that might better predict overweight and obesity in young adulthood, we examined the association between childhood body-mass index (BMI) and young adulthood BMI status in a longitudinal cohort.MethodsIn this study, we used data from the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium (which included seven childhood cohorts from the USA, Australia, and Finland) to establish childhood overweight and obesity cutoff points that best predict BMI status at the age of 18 years. We included 3779 children who were followed up from 1970 onwards, and had at least one childhood BMI measurement between ages 6 years and 17 years and a BMI measurement specifically at age 18 years. We used logistic regression to assess the association between BMI in childhood and young adulthood obesity. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to assess the ability of fitted models to discriminate between different BMI status groups in young adulthood. The cutoff points were then compared with those defined by the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF), which used cross-sectional data, and tested for sensitivity and specificity in a separate, independent, longitudinal sample (from the Special Turku Coronary Risk Factor Intervention Project [STRIP] study) with BMI measurements available from both childhood and adulthood.FindingsThe cutoff points derived from the longitudinal i3C Consortium data were lower than the IOTF cutoff points. Consequently, a larger proportion of participants in the STRIP study was classified as overweight or obese when using the i3C cutoff points than when using the IOTF cutoff points. Especially for obesity, i3C cutoff points were significantly better at identifying those who would become obese later in life. In the independent sample, the AUROC values for overweight ranged from 0·75 (95% CI 0·70-0·80) to 0·88 (0·84-0·93) for the i3C cutoff points, and the corresponding values for the IOTF cutoff points ranged from 0·69 (0·62-0·75) to 0·87 (0·82-0·92). For obesity, the AUROC values ranged from 0·84 (0·75-0·93) to 0·90 (0·82-0·98) for the i3C cutoff points and 0·57 (0·49-0·66) to 0·76 (0·65-0·88) for IOTF cutoff points.InterpretationThe childhood BMI cutoff points obtained from the i3C Consortium longitudinal data can better predict risk of overweight and obesity in young adulthood than can standards that are currently used based on cross-sectional data. Such cutoff points should help to more accurately identify children at risk of adult overweight or obesity.FundingNone.
| S-EPMC8717810 | biostudies-literature