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Acute-on-chronic liver failure as a major predictive factor for mortality in patients with variceal bleeding.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND/AIMS:This study examined the risk factors associated with mortality in cirrhotic patients hospitalized with variceal bleeding, and evaluated the effects of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) on the prognosis of these patients. METHODS:This study was retrospectively conducted on patients registered in the Korean acute-on-chronic liver failure study cohort, and on 474 consecutive cirrhotic patients hospitalized with variceal bleeding from January 2013 to December 2013 at 21 university hospitals. ACLF was defined as described by the European Association for the Study of Liver-Chronic Liver Failure Consortium. RESULTS:Among a total of 474 patients, 61 patients were diagnosed with ACLF. The cumulative overall survival (OS) rate was lower in the patients with ACLF than in those without (P<0.001), and patients with higher ACLF grades had a lower OS rate (P<0.001). The chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score was identified as a significant prognostic factor in patients hospitalized with variceal bleeding (hazard ratio [HR], 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-1.50; P<0.001), even in ACLF patients with variceal bleeding (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.19-1.46, P<0.001). Concerning the prediction of the mortality risk at 28- and 90-day using CLIF-SOFA scores, c-statistics were 0.895 (95% CI, 0.829-0.962) and 0.897 (95% CI, 0.842-0.951), respectively, and the optimal cut-off values were 6.5 and 6.5, respectively. CONCLUSION:In cirrhotic patients hospitalized with variceal bleeding, the prognosis was poor when accompanied by ACLF, especially depending upon CLIF-SOFA score. CLIF-SOFA model well predicted the 28-day or 90-day mortality for cirrhotic patients who experienced variceal bleeding.

SUBMITTER: Shin J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7641565 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Acute-on-chronic liver failure as a major predictive factor for mortality in patients with variceal bleeding.

Shin Jongbeom J Yu Jung Hwan JH Jin Young-Joo YJ Yim Hyung Joon HJ Jung Young Kul YK Yang Jin Mo JM Song Do Seon DS Kim Young Seok YS Kim Sang Gyune SG Kim Dong Joon DJ Suk Ki Tae KT Yoon Eileen L EL Lee Sang Soo SS Kim Chang Wook CW Kim Hee Yeon HY Jang Jae Young JY Jeong Soung Won SW

Clinical and molecular hepatology 20200917 4

<h4>Background/aims</h4>This study examined the risk factors associated with mortality in cirrhotic patients hospitalized with variceal bleeding, and evaluated the effects of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) on the prognosis of these patients.<h4>Methods</h4>This study was retrospectively conducted on patients registered in the Korean acute-on-chronic liver failure study cohort, and on 474 consecutive cirrhotic patients hospitalized with variceal bleeding from January 2013 to December 2013 ...[more]

PMID: 32937688

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Project description:In patients with acute liver failure (ALF), elevated prothrombin time and thrombocytopenia can fuel a perception of a bleeding tendency. However, the incidence, site, risk factors, and clinical significance of bleeding complications have not been quantified in a large cohort of patients with ALF. We studied 1,770 adult patients enrolled in the ALF Study Group Registry between 1998 and 2016. Bleeding complications and blood component transfusions were collected for 7 days after admission. The relationship of bleeding complications to 21-day mortality was assessed. Despite a median international normalized ratio of 2.7 and platelet count of 96 × 109 /L on admission, bleeding complications were observed in only 187 patients (11%), including 173 spontaneous and 22 postprocedural bleeding episodes. Eighty-four percent of spontaneous bleeding episodes were from an upper gastrointestinal source and rarely resulted in red blood cell transfusion. Twenty patients experienced an intracranial bleed; half of these occurred spontaneously and half after intracranial pressure monitor placement, and this was the proximate cause of death in 20% and 50%, respectively. Bleeders and patients who received red blood cell transfusions were more acutely ill from extrahepatic organ system failure but not from hepatocellular failure. Consistent with this observation, bleeding complications were associated with lower platelet counts but not higher international normalized ratio. Transfusion of any blood component was associated with nearly 2-fold increased death or need for liver transplantation at day 21, but bleeding complications were the proximate cause of death in only 5% of cases. CONCLUSIONS:Despite a perceived bleeding diathesis, clinically significant bleeding is uncommon in patients with ALF; bleeding complications in patients with ALF are markers of severe systemic inflammation rather than of coagulopathy and so portend a poor prognosis. (Hepatology 2018;67:1931-1942).

Project description:To validate prognostic scores for acute decompensation of cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure in Brazilian patients.This is a prospective cohort study designed to assess the prognostic performance of the chronic liver failure-consortium (CLIF-C) acute decompensation score (CLIF-C AD) and CLIF-C acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C ACLF), regarding 28-d and 90-d mortality, as well as to compare them to other prognostic models, such as Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD Sodium (MELD-Na), Child-Pugh (CP) score, and the CLIF-C Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OF). All participants were adults with acute decompensation of cirrhosis admitted to the Emergency Department of a tertiary hospital in southern Brazil. Prognostic performances were evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curves (AUC) and 95%CI.One hundred and thirteen cirrhotic patients were included. At admission, 18 patients had acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and 95 individuals had acute decompensation (AD) without ACLF, of which 24 eventually developed ACLF during the course of hospitalization (AD evolving to ACLF group). The AD group had significantly lower 28-d (9.0%) and 90-d (18.3%) mortality as compared to the AD evolving to ACLF group and to the ACLF group (both P < 0.001). On the other hand, 28-d and 90-d mortalities were not significantly different between AD evolving to ACLF group and ACLF group (P = 0.542 and P = 0.708, respectively). Among patients with ACLF, at 28 d from the diagnosis, CLIF-C ACLF was the only score able to predict mortality significantly better than the reference line, with an AUC (95%CI) of 0.71 (95%CI: 0.54-0.88, P = 0.021). Among patients with AD, all prognostic scores performed significantly better than the reference line regarding 28-d mortality, presenting with similar AUCs: CLIF-C AD score 0.75 (95%CI: 0.63-0.88), CP score 0.72 (95%CI: 0.59-0.85), MELD score 0.75 (95%CI: 0.61-0.90), MELD-Na score 0.76 (95%CI: 0.61-0.90), and CLIF-C OF score 0.74 (95%CI: 0.60-0.88). The same occurred concerning AUCs for 90-d mortality: CLIF-C AD score 0.70 (95%CI: 0.57-0.82), CP score 0.73 (95%CI: 0.62-0.84), MELD score 0.71 (95%CI: 0.59-0.83), MELD-Na score 0.73 (95%CI: 0.62-0.84), and CLIF-C OF score 0.65 (95%CI: 0.52-0.78).This study demonstrated that CLIF-C ACLF is the best available score for the prediction of 28-d mortality among patients with ACLF. CLIF-C AD score is also useful for the prediction of mortality among cirrhotic patients with AD not fulfilling diagnostic criteria for ACLF, but it was not superior to other well-established prognostic scores.

Project description:BackgroundEsophageal variceal hemorrhage (EVH) is one of the high mortality complications in cirrhotic patients. Endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) is currently the standard therapy for EVH. However, some patients have expired during hospitalization or survived shortly after management.AimTo evaluate hospital and 6-week mortality by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score compared to a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class.MethodsWe retrospectively collected 714 cirrhotic patients with EVH post EVL between July 2010 and June 2016 at Taitung MacKay Memorial Hospital, Taiwan. CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were calculated for all patients admitted.ResultsAmong the 714 patients, the overall hospital and 6-week mortality rates were 6.9% (49/715) and 13.1% (94/715) respectively. For predicting hospital death, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were 0.964, 0.876, and 0.846. For predicting 6-week death, AUROC values of CLIF-SOFA score, MELD score, and CTP class were 0.943, 0.817, and 0.834. CLIF-SOFA score had higher AUROC value with statistical significance under pairwise comparison than did MELD score and CTP class in prediction of not only hospital but also 6-week mortality. The history of hepatocellular carcinoma was the risk factor for 6-week mortality. For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma the cut-point of CLIF-SOFA score was 5.5 for 6-week mortality and 6.5 for hospital mortality on admission. For patients without hepatocellular carcinoma, the cut-point of CLIF-SOFA score was 6.5 for both 6-week and hospital mortality.ConclusionCLIF-SOFA score predicted post-EVL prognosis well. For patients without hepatocellular carcinoma, CLIF-SOFA score ?6 suggests higher 6-week mortality and CLIF-SOFA score ?7 suggests higher hospital mortality. For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, CLIF-SOFA score ?7 suggests higher 6-week and hospital mortality.

Project description:BackgroundThe basis of individualized treatment should be individualized mortality risk predictive information. The present study aimed to develop an online individual mortality risk predictive tool for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients based on a random survival forest (RSF) algorithm.MethodsThe current study retrospectively enrolled ACLF patients from the Department of Infectious Diseases of The First People's Hospital of Foshan, Shunde Hospital of Southern Medical University, and Jiangmen Central Hospital. Two hundred seventy-six consecutive ACLF patients were included in the present study as a model cohort (n = 276). Then the current study constructed a validation cohort by drawing patients from the model dataset based on the resampling method (n = 276). The RSF algorithm was used to develop an individual prognostic model for ACLF patients. The Brier score was used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of prognostic models. The weighted mean rank estimation method was used to compare the differences between the areas under the time-dependent ROC curves (AUROCs) of prognostic models.ResultsMultivariate Cox regression identified hepatic encephalopathy (HE), age, serum sodium level, acute kidney injury (AKI), red cell distribution width (RDW), and international normalization index (INR) as independent risk factors for ACLF patients. A simplified RSF model was developed based on these previous risk factors. The AUROCs for predicting 3-, 6-, and 12-month mortality were 0.916, 0.916, and 0.905 for the RSF model and 0.872, 0.866, and 0.848 for the Cox model in the model cohort, respectively. The Brier scores were 0.119, 0.119, and 0.128 for the RSF model and 0.138, 0.146, and 0.156 for the Cox model, respectively. The nonparametric comparison suggested that the RSF model was superior to the Cox model for predicting the prognosis of ACLF patients.ConclusionsThe current study developed a novel online individual mortality risk predictive tool that could predict individual mortality risk predictive curves for individual patients. Additionally, the current online individual mortality risk predictive tool could further provide predicted mortality percentages and 95% confidence intervals at user-defined time points.

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Acute-on-chronic liver failure as a major predictive factor for mortality in patients with variceal bleeding.

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Acute-on-chronic liver failure as a major predictive factor for mortality in patients with variceal bleeding.

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