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A machine learning-based treatment prediction model using whole genome variants of hepatitis C virus.

ABSTRACT: In recent years, the development of diagnostics using artificial intelligence (AI) has been remarkable. AI algorithms can go beyond human reasoning and build diagnostic models from a number of complex combinations. Using next-generation sequencing technology, we identified hepatitis C virus (HCV) variants resistant to directing-acting antivirals (DAA) by whole genome sequencing of full-length HCV genomes, and applied these variants to various machine-learning algorithms to evaluate a preliminary predictive model. HCV genomic RNA was extracted from serum from 173 patients (109 with subsequent sustained virological response [SVR] and 64 without) before DAA treatment. HCV genomes from the 109 SVR and 64 non-SVR patients were randomly divided into a training data set (57 SVR and 29 non-SVR) and a validation-data set (52 SVR and 35 non-SVR). The training data set was subject to nine machine-learning algorithms selected to identify the optimized combination of functional variants in relation to SVR status following DAA therapy. Subsequently, the prediction model was tested by the validation-data set. The most accurate learning method was the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm (validation accuracy, 0.95; kappa statistic, 0.90; F-value, 0.94). The second-most accurate learning algorithm was Multi-layer perceptron. Unfortunately, Decision Tree, and Naive Bayes algorithms could not be fitted with our data set due to low accuracy (< 0.8). Conclusively, with an accuracy rate of 95.4% in the generalization performance evaluation, SVM was identified as the best algorithm. Analytical methods based on genomic analysis and the construction of a predictive model by machine-learning may be applicable to the selection of the optimal treatment for other viral infections and cancer.

SUBMITTER: Haga H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7644079 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A machine learning-based treatment prediction model using whole genome variants of hepatitis C virus.

Haga Hiroaki H Sato Hidenori H Koseki Ayumi A Saito Takafumi T Okumoto Kazuo K Hoshikawa Kyoko K Katsumi Tomohiro T Mizuno Kei K Nishina Taketo T Ueno Yoshiyuki Y

PloS one 20201105 11

In recent years, the development of diagnostics using artificial intelligence (AI) has been remarkable. AI algorithms can go beyond human reasoning and build diagnostic models from a number of complex combinations. Using next-generation sequencing technology, we identified hepatitis C virus (HCV) variants resistant to directing-acting antivirals (DAA) by whole genome sequencing of full-length HCV genomes, and applied these variants to various machine-learning algorithms to evaluate a preliminary ...[more]

PMID: 33152046

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Project description:BackgroundAccurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task. However, for different data series, the performance of these models varies. Hepatitis E, as an acute liver disease, has been a major public health problem. Which model is more appropriate for predicting the incidence of hepatitis E? In this paper, three different methods are used and the performance of the three methods is compared.MethodsAutoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA), support vector machine(SVM) and long short-term memory(LSTM) recurrent neural network were adopted and compared. ARIMA was implemented by python with the help of statsmodels. SVM was accomplished by matlab with libSVM library. LSTM was designed by ourselves with Keras, a deep learning library. To tackle the problem of overfitting caused by limited training samples, we adopted dropout and regularization strategies in our LSTM model. Experimental data were obtained from the monthly incidence and cases number of hepatitis E from January 2005 to December 2017 in Shandong province, China. We selected data from July 2015 to December 2017 to validate the models, and the rest was taken as training set. Three metrics were applied to compare the performance of models, including root mean square error(RMSE), mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and mean absolute error(MAE).ResultsBy analyzing data, we took ARIMA(1, 1, 1), ARIMA(3, 1, 2) as monthly incidence prediction model and cases number prediction model, respectively. Cross-validation and grid search were used to optimize parameters of SVM. Penalty coefficient C and kernel function parameter g were set 8, 0.125 for incidence prediction, and 22, 0.01 for cases number prediction. LSTM has 4 nodes. Dropout and L2 regularization parameters were set 0.15, 0.001, respectively. By the metrics of RMSE, we obtained 0.022, 0.0204, 0.01 for incidence prediction, using ARIMA, SVM and LSTM. And we obtained 22.25, 20.0368, 11.75 for cases number prediction, using three models. For MAPE metrics, the results were 23.5%, 21.7%, 15.08%, and 23.6%, 21.44%, 13.6%, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively. For MAE metrics, the results were 0.018, 0.0167, 0.011 and 18.003, 16.5815, 9.984, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively.ConclusionsComparing ARIMA, SVM and LSTM, we found that nonlinear models(SVM, LSTM) outperform linear models(ARIMA). LSTM obtained the best performance in all three metrics of RSME, MAPE, MAE. Hence, LSTM is the most suitable for predicting hepatitis E monthly incidence and cases number.

Project description:Zika virus (ZIKV), the causative agent of Zika fever in humans, is an RNA virus that belongs to the genus Flavivirus. Currently, there is no approved vaccine for clinical use to combat the ZIKV infection and contain the epidemic. Epitope-based peptide vaccines have a large untapped potential for boosting vaccination safety, cross-reactivity, and immunogenicity. Though many attempts have been made to develop vaccines for ZIKV, none of these have proved to be successful. Epitope-based peptide vaccines can act as powerful alternatives to conventional vaccines due to their low production cost, less reactogenic, and allergenic responses. For designing an effective and viable epitope-based peptide vaccine against this deadly virus, it is essential to select the antigenic T-cell epitopes since epitope-based vaccines are considered safe. The in silico machine-learning-based approach for ZIKV T-cell epitope prediction would save a lot of physical experimental time and efforts for speedy vaccine development compared to in vivo approaches. We hereby have trained a machine-learning-based computational model to predict novel ZIKV T-cell epitopes by employing physicochemical properties of amino acids. The proposed ensemble model based on a voting mechanism works by blending the predictions for each class (epitope or nonepitope) from each base classifier. Predictions obtained for each class by the individual classifier are summed up, and the class with the majority vote is predicted upon. An odd number of classifiers have been used to avoid the occurrence of ties in the voting. Experimentally determined ZIKV peptide sequences data set was collected from Immune Epitope Database and Analysis Resource (IEDB) repository. The data set consists of 3,519 sequences, of which 1,762 are epitopes and 1,757 are nonepitopes. The length of sequences ranges from 6 to 30 meter. For each sequence, we extracted 13 physicochemical features. The proposed ensemble model achieved sensitivity, specificity, Gini coefficient, AUC, precision, F-score, and accuracy of 0.976, 0.959, 0.993, 0.994, 0.989, 0.985, and 97.13%, respectively. To check the consistency of the model, we carried out five-fold cross-validation and an average accuracy of 96.072% is reported. Finally, a comparative analysis of the proposed model with existing methods has been carried out using a separate validation data set, suggesting the proposed ensemble model as a better model. The proposed ensemble model will help predict novel ZIKV vaccine candidates to save lives globally and prevent future epidemic-scale outbreaks.

Project description:BackgroundWe aimed at predicting fatigue after breast cancer treatment using machine learning on clinical covariates and germline genome-wide data.MethodsWe accessed germline genome-wide data of 2799 early-stage breast cancer patients from the Cancer Toxicity study (NCT01993498). The primary endpoint was defined as scoring zero at diagnosis and higher than quartile 3 at 1 year after primary treatment completion on European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer quality-of-life questionnaires for Overall Fatigue and on the multidimensional questionnaire for Physical, Emotional, and Cognitive fatigue. First, we tested univariate associations of each endpoint with clinical variables and genome-wide variants. Then, using preselected clinical (false discovery rate < 0.05) and genomic (P < .001) variables, a multivariable preconditioned random-forest regression model was built and validated on a hold-out subset to predict fatigue. Gene set enrichment analysis identified key biological correlates (MetaCore). All statistical tests were 2-sided.ResultsStatistically significant clinical associations were found only with Emotional and Cognitive Fatigue, including receipt of chemotherapy, anxiety, and pain. Some single nucleotide polymorphisms had some degree of association (P < .001) with the different fatigue endpoints, although there were no genome-wide statistically significant (P < 5.00 × 10-8) associations. Only for Cognitive Fatigue, the predictive ability of the genomic multivariable model was statistically significantly better than random (area under the curve = 0.59, P = .01) and marginally improved with clinical variables (area under the curve = 0.60, P = .005). Single nucleotide polymorphisms found to be associated (P < .001) with Cognitive Fatigue belonged to genes linked to inflammation (false discovery rate adjusted P = .03), cognitive disorders (P = 1.51 × 10-12), and synaptic transmission (P = 6.28 × 10-8).ConclusionsGenomic analyses in this large cohort of breast cancer survivors suggest a possible genetic role for severe Cognitive Fatigue that warrants further exploration.

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A machine learning-based treatment prediction model using whole genome variants of hepatitis C virus.

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A machine learning-based treatment prediction model using whole genome variants of hepatitis C virus.

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