Dataset Information

Agent-Based Simulation for Seasonal Guinea Worm Disease in Chad Dogs.

ABSTRACT: The campaign to eradicate dracunculiasis (Guinea worm [GW] disease) and its causative pathogen Dracunculus medinensis (GW) in Chad is challenged by infections in domestic dogs, which far outnumber the dwindling number of human infections. We present an agent-based simulation that models transmission of GW between a shared water source and a large population of dogs. The simulation incorporates various potential factors driving the infections including external factors and two currently used interventions, namely, tethering and larvicide water treatments. By defining and estimating infectivity parameters and seasonality factors, we test the simulation model on scenarios where seasonal patterns of dog infections could be driven by the parasite's life cycle alone or with environmental factors (e.g., temperature and rainfall) that could also affect human or dog behaviors (e.g., fishing versus farming seasons). We show that the best-fitting model includes external factors in addition to the pathogen's life cycle. From the simulation, we estimate that the basic reproductive number, R 0, is approximately 2.0; our results also show that an infected dog can transmit the infection to 3.6 other dogs, on average, during the month of peak infectivity (April). The simulation results shed light on the transmission dynamics of GWs to dogs and lay the groundwork for reducing the number of infections and eventually interrupting transmission of GW.

SUBMITTER: Perini T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7646815 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Agent-Based Simulation for Seasonal Guinea Worm Disease in Chad Dogs.

Perini Tyler T Keskinocak Pinar P Li Zihao Z Ruiz-Tiben Ernesto E Swann Julie J Weiss Adam A

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 20201101 5

The campaign to eradicate dracunculiasis (Guinea worm [GW] disease) and its causative pathogen <i>Dracunculus medinensis</i> (GW) in Chad is challenged by infections in domestic dogs, which far outnumber the dwindling number of human infections. We present an agent-based simulation that models transmission of GW between a shared water source and a large population of dogs. The simulation incorporates various potential factors driving the infections including external factors and two currently us ...[more]

PMID: 32901603

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Project description:BackgroundGuinea worm is a debilitating parasitic infection targeted for eradication. Annual human cases have dropped from approximately 3,500,000 in 1986 to 54 in 2019. Recent identification of canine cases in Chad threatens progress, and therefore detection, prevention, and containment of canine cases is a priority. We investigated associations between disease knowledge, community engagement, and canine cases in Chad to identify opportunities to improve active surveillance.MethodsWe surveyed 627 respondents (villagers, local leaders, community volunteers, and supervisors) across 45 villages under active surveillance. Descriptive statistics were analyzed by respondent category. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess the effects of volunteer visit frequency on villager knowledge.ResultsKnowledge increased with respondents' associations with the Guinea worm program. Household visit frequency by community volunteers was uneven: 53.0% of villagers reported visits at least twice weekly and 21.4% of villagers reported never being visited. Villagers visited by a volunteer at least twice weekly had better knowledge of Guinea worm symptoms (OR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.04-2.79) and could name more prevention strategies (OR: 2.04; 95% CI: 1.32-3.15) than villagers visited less frequently. The primary motivation to report was to facilitate care-seeking for people with Guinea worm. Knowledge of animal "containment" to prevent contamination of water, knowledge of rewards for reporting animal cases, and ability to name any reasons to report Guinea worm were each positively correlated with village canine case counts.ConclusionsCommunity volunteers play crucial roles in educating their neighbors about Guinea worm and facilitating surveillance. Additional training and more attentive management of volunteers and supervisors could increase visit frequency and further amplify their impact. Emphasizing links between animal and human cases, the importance of animal containment, and animal rewards might improve surveillance and canine case detection. The surveillance system should be evaluated routinely to expand generalizability of data and monitor changes over time.

Project description:BackgroundIn the absence of a vaccine or pharmacological treatment, prevention and control of Guinea worm disease is dependent on timely identification and containment of cases to interrupt transmission. The Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program (CGWEP) surveillance system detects and monitors Guinea worm disease in both humans and animals. Although Guinea worm cases in humans has declined, the discovery of canine infections in dogs in Chad has posed a significant challenge to eradication efforts. A foundational information system that supports the surveillance activities with modern data management practices is needed to support continued program efficacy.MethodsWe sought to assess the current CGWEP surveillance and information system to identify gaps and redundancies and propose system improvements. We reviewed documentation, consulted with subject matter experts and stakeholders, inventoried datasets to map data elements and information flow, and mapped data management processes. We used the Information Value Cycle (IVC) and Data-Information System-Context (DISC) frameworks to help understand the information generated and identify gaps.ResultsFindings from this study identified areas for improvement, including the need for consolidation of forms that capture the same demographic variables, which could be accomplished with an electronic data capture system. Further, the mental models (conceptual frameworks) IVC and DISC highlighted the need for more detailed, standardized workflows specifically related to information management.ConclusionsBased on these findings, we proposed a four-phased roadmap for centralizing data systems and transitioning to an electronic data capture system. These included: development of a data governance plan, transition to electronic data entry and centralized data storage, transition to a relational database, and cloud-based integration. The method and outcome of this assessment could be used by other neglected tropical disease programs looking to transition to modern electronic data capture systems.

Project description:BackgroundGuinea worm (Dracunculus medinensis) was detected in Chad in 2010 after a supposed ten-year absence, posing a challenge to the global eradication effort. Initiation of a village-based surveillance system in 2012 revealed a substantial number of dogs infected with Guinea worm, raising questions about paratenic hosts and cross-species transmission.Methodology/principal findingsWe coupled genomic and surveillance case data from 2012-2018 to investigate the modes of transmission between dog and human hosts and the geographic connectivity of worms. Eighty-six variants across four genes in the mitochondrial genome identified 41 genetically distinct worm genotypes. Spatiotemporal modeling revealed worms with the same genotype ('genetically identical') were within a median range of 18.6 kilometers of each other, but largely within approximately 50 kilometers. Genetically identical worms varied in their degree of spatial clustering, suggesting there may be different factors that favor or constrain transmission. Each worm was surrounded by five to ten genetically distinct worms within a 50 kilometer radius. As expected, we observed a change in the genetic similarity distribution between pairs of worms using variants across the complete mitochondrial genome in an independent population.Conclusions/significanceIn the largest study linking genetic and surveillance data to date of Guinea worm cases in Chad, we show genetic identity and modeling can facilitate the understanding of local transmission. The co-occurrence of genetically non-identical worms in quantitatively identified transmission ranges highlights the necessity for genomic tools to link cases. The improved discrimination between pairs of worms from variants identified across the complete mitochondrial genome suggests that expanding the number of genomic markers could link cases at a finer scale. These results suggest that scaling up genomic surveillance for Guinea worm may provide additional value for programmatic decision-making critical for monitoring cases and intervention efficacy to achieve elimination.

Dataset Information

Agent-Based Simulation for Seasonal Guinea Worm Disease in Chad Dogs.

Publications

Agent-Based Simulation for Seasonal Guinea Worm Disease in Chad Dogs.

Similar Datasets

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