Dataset Information

The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction.

ABSTRACT: This study investigated the drivers and extended-range prediction of the mid-July to early August 2018 heatwaves over northwestern Europe, focusing on regional heatwave events over Scandinavia (SC) and Western Europe (WE). The persistent blocking regime (BL) was the most influential contributor for the 2018 heatwave over SC, and both the Atlantic Low regime (AL) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were secondary contributors for the heatwave, but with different effect directions. The major contributor to the heatwave over WE was AL. These causal relationships remained valid when the evolution of warm spells was considered. A multi-model ensemble of real-time forecasts from the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) database captured the evolution of the warm spells over SC and WE up to 3 weeks in advance. However, the predictions of heatwave occurrence and significance for the two regions are unsatisfactory. BL and AL can be predicted 2 weeks in advance, resulting in the successful predictions of warm spells over SC and WE. Although variations in Azores High and NAO were captured in the forecasts, their contribution to the warm spells remains unclear.

SUBMITTER: Kueh MT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7648626 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction.

Kueh Mien-Tze MT Lin Chuan-Yao CY

Scientific reports 20201106 1

This study investigated the drivers and extended-range prediction of the mid-July to early August 2018 heatwaves over northwestern Europe, focusing on regional heatwave events over Scandinavia (SC) and Western Europe (WE). The persistent blocking regime (BL) was the most influential contributor for the 2018 heatwave over SC, and both the Atlantic Low regime (AL) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were secondary contributors for the heatwave, but with different effect directions. The major cont ...[more]

PMID: 33159097

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Dataset Information

The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction.

Publications

The 2018 summer heatwaves over northwestern Europe and its extended-range prediction.

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