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Use of electronic healthcare records to identify complex patients with atrial fibrillation for targeted intervention.

ABSTRACT: Background:Practice guidelines recommend anticoagulation therapy for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who have other risk factors putting them at an elevated risk of stroke. These patients remain undertreated, but, with increasing use of electronic healthcare records (EHRs), it may be possible to identify candidates for treatment. Objective:To test algorithms for identifying AF patients who also have known risk factors for stroke and major bleeding using EHR data. Materials and Methods:We evaluated the performance of algorithms using EHR data from the Partners Healthcare System at identifying AF patients and 16 additional conditions that are risk factors in the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED risk scores for stroke and major bleeding. Algorithms were based on information contained in problem lists, billing codes, laboratory data, prescription data, vital status, and clinical notes. The performance of candidate algorithms in 1000 bootstrap resamples was compared to a gold standard of manual chart review by experienced resident physicians. Results:: Physicians reviewed 480 patient charts. For 11 conditions, the median positive predictive value (PPV) of the EHR-derived algorithms was greater than 0.90. Although the PPV for some risk factors was poor, the median PPV for identifying patients with a CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score ?2 or a HAS-BLED score ?3 was 1.00 and 0.92, respectively. Discussion:We developed and tested a set of algorithms to identify AF patients and known risk factors for stroke and major bleeding using EHR data. Algorithms such as these can be built into EHR systems to facilitate informed decision making and help shift population health management efforts towards patients with the greatest need.

SUBMITTER: Wang SV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7651901 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Use of electronic healthcare records to identify complex patients with atrial fibrillation for targeted intervention.

Wang Shirley V SV Rogers James R JR Jin Yinzhu Y Bates David W DW Fischer Michael A MA

Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA 20170301 2

<h4>Background</h4>Practice guidelines recommend anticoagulation therapy for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who have other risk factors putting them at an elevated risk of stroke. These patients remain undertreated, but, with increasing use of electronic healthcare records (EHRs), it may be possible to identify candidates for treatment.<h4>Objective</h4>To test algorithms for identifying AF patients who also have known risk factors for stroke and major bleeding using EHR data.<h4>Materia ...[more]

PMID: 27375290

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Project description:ObjectivesThis study sought to determine whether the risk of atrial fibrillation AF can be estimated accurately by using routinely ascertained features in the electronic health record (EHR) and whether AF risk is associated with stroke.BackgroundEarly diagnosis of AF and treatment with anticoagulation may prevent strokes.MethodsUsing a multi-institutional EHR, this study identified 412,085 individuals 45 to 95 years of age without prevalent AF between 2000 and 2014. A prediction model was derived and validated for 5-year AF risk by using split-sample validation and model performance was compared with other methods of AF risk assessment.ResultsWithin 5 years, 14,334 individuals developed AF. In the derivation sample (7,216 AF events of 206,042 total), the optimal risk model included sex, age, race, smoking, height, weight, diastolic blood pressure, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, heart failure, coronary heart disease, valvular disease, prior stroke, peripheral arterial disease, chronic kidney disease, hypothyroidism, and quadratic terms for height, weight, and age. In the validation sample (7,118 AF events of 206,043 total) the AF risk model demonstrated good discrimination (C-statistic: 0.777; 95% confidence interval [CI:] 0.771 to 0.783) and calibration (0.99; 95% CI: 0.96 to 1.01). Model discrimination and calibration were superior to CHARGE-AF (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology AF) (C-statistic: 0.753; 95% CI: 0.747 to 0.759; calibration slope: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.71 to 0.74), C2HEST (Coronary artery disease / chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; Hypertension; Elderly [age ≥75 years]; Systolic heart failure; Thyroid disease [hyperthyroidism]) (C-statistic: 0.754; 95% CI: 0.747 to 0.762; calibration slope: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.45), and CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years, Diabetes mellitus, Prior stroke, transient ischemic attack [TIA], or thromboembolism, Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category [female]) scores (C-statistic: 0.702; 95% CI: 0.693 to 0.710; calibration slope: 0.37; 95% CI: 0.36 to 0.38). AF risk discriminated incident stroke (n = 4,814; C-statistic: 0.684; 95% CI: 0.677 to 0.692) and stroke within 90 days of incident AF (n = 327; C-statistic: 0.789; 95% CI: 0.764 to 0.814).ConclusionsA model developed from a real-world EHR database predicted AF accurately and stratified stroke risk. Incorporating AF prediction into EHRs may enable risk-guided screening for AF.

Project description:BackgroundNational electronic health records (EHR) are increasingly used for research but identifying disease cases is challenging due to differences in information captured between sources (e.g. primary and secondary care). Our objective was to provide a transparent, reproducible model for integrating these data using atrial fibrillation (AF), a chronic condition diagnosed and managed in multiple ways in different healthcare settings, as a case study.MethodsPotentially relevant codes for AF screening, diagnosis, and management were identified in four coding systems: Read (primary care diagnoses and procedures), British National Formulary (BNF; primary care prescriptions), ICD-10 (secondary care diagnoses) and OPCS-4 (secondary care procedures). From these we developed a phenotype algorithm via expert review and analysis of linked EHR data from 1998 to 2010 for a cohort of 2.14 million UK patients aged ? 30 years. The cohort was also used to evaluate the phenotype by examining associations between incident AF and known risk factors.ResultsThe phenotype algorithm incorporated 286 codes: 201 Read, 63 BNF, 18 ICD-10, and four OPCS-4. Incident AF diagnoses were recorded for 72,793 patients, but only 39.6% (N = 28,795) were recorded in primary care and secondary care. An additional 7,468 potential cases were inferred from data on treatment and pre-existing conditions. The proportion of cases identified from each source differed by diagnosis age; inferred diagnoses contributed a greater proportion of younger cases (? 60 years), while older patients (? 80 years) were mainly diagnosed in SC. Associations of risk factors (hypertension, myocardial infarction, heart failure) with incident AF defined using different EHR sources were comparable in magnitude to those from traditional consented cohorts.ConclusionsA single EHR source is not sufficient to identify all patients, nor will it provide a representative sample. Combining multiple data sources and integrating information on treatment and comorbid conditions can substantially improve case identification.

Project description:BackgroundSelf-harm occurring within pregnancy and the postnatal year ("perinatal self-harm") is a clinically important yet under-researched topic. Current research likely under-estimates prevalence due to methodological limitations. Electronic healthcare records (EHRs) provide a source of clinically rich data on perinatal self-harm.Aims(1) To create a Natural Language Processing (NLP) tool that can, with acceptable precision and recall, identify mentions of acts of perinatal self-harm within EHRs. (2) To use this tool to identify service-users who have self-harmed perinatally, based on their EHRs.MethodsWe used the Clinical Record Interactive Search system to extract de-identified EHRs of secondary mental healthcare service-users at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust. We developed a tool that applied several layers of linguistic processing based on the spaCy NLP library for Python. We evaluated mention-level performance in the following domains: span, status, temporality and polarity. Evaluation was done against a manually coded reference standard. Mention-level performance was reported as precision, recall, F-score and Cohen's kappa for each domain. Performance was also assessed at 'service-user' level and explored whether a heuristic rule improved this. We report per-class statistics for service-user performance, as well as likelihood ratios and post-test probabilities.ResultsMention-level performance: micro-averaged F-score, precision and recall for span, polarity and temporality >0.8. Kappa for status 0.68, temporality 0.62, polarity 0.91. Service-user level performance with heuristic: F-score, precision, recall of minority class 0.69, macro-averaged F-score 0.81, positive LR 9.4 (4.8-19), post-test probability 69.0% (53-82%). Considering the task difficulty, the tool performs well, although temporality was the attribute with the lowest level of annotator agreement.ConclusionsIt is feasible to develop an NLP tool that identifies, with acceptable validity, mentions of perinatal self-harm within EHRs, although with limitations regarding temporality. Using a heuristic rule, it can also function at a service-user-level.

Project description:ImportanceAtrial fibrillation (AF) contributes to substantial morbidity, mortality, and health care expenditures. Accurate prediction of incident AF would enhance AF management and potentially improve patient outcomes.ObjectiveTo validate the AF risk prediction model originally developed by the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology-Atrial Fibrillation (CHARGE-AF) investigators using a large repository of electronic medical records (EMRs).Design, setting, and participantsIn this prediction model study, deidentified EMRs of 33 494 individuals 40 years or older who were white or African American and had no history of AF were reviewed and analyzed. The participants were followed up in the internal medicine outpatient clinics at Vanderbilt University Medical Center for incident AF from December 31, 2005, until December 31, 2010. Adjusting for differences in baseline hazard, the CHARGE-AF Cox proportional hazards model regression coefficients were applied to the EMR cohort. A simple version of the model with no echocardiographic variables was also evaluated. Data were analyzed from October 31, 2013, to January 31, 2014.Main outcomes and measuresIncident AF. Predictors in the model included age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, smoking status, type 2 diabetes, heart failure, history of myocardial infarction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and PR interval.ResultsAmong the 33 494 participants, the median age was 57 (interquartile range, 49-67) years; 57% of patients were women, 43% were men, 85.7% were white, and 14.3% were African American. During the mean (SD) follow-up of 4.8 (0.9) years, 2455 individuals (7.3%) developed AF. Both models had poor calibration in the EMR cohort, with underprediction of AF among low-risk individuals and overprediction of AF among high-risk individuals (10th and 90th percentiles for predicted probability of incident AF, 0.005 and 0.179, respectively). The full CHARGE-AF model had a C index of 0.708 (95% CI, 0.699-0.718) in our cohort. The simple model had similar discrimination (C index, 0.709; 95% CI, 0.699-0.718; P = .70 for difference between models).Conclusions and relevanceDespite reasonable discrimination, the CHARGE-AF models showed poor calibration in this EMR cohort. This study highlights the difficulties of applying a risk model derived from prospective cohort studies to an EMR cohort and suggests that these AF risk prediction models be used with caution in the EMR setting. Future risk models may need to be developed and validated within EMR cohorts.

Project description:BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) burden on patients and healthcare systems warrants innovative strategies for screening asymptomatic individuals.ObjectiveWe sought to externally validate a predictive model originally developed in a German population to detect unidentified incident AF utilising real-world primary healthcare databases from countries in Europe and Australia.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study used anonymized, longitudinal patient data from 5 country-level primary care databases, including Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, and the UK. The study eligibility included adult patients (≥45 years) with either an AF diagnosis (cases) or no diagnosis (controls) who had continuous enrolment in the respective database prior to the study period. Logistic regression was fitted to a binary response (yes/no) for AF diagnosis using pre-determined risk factors.ResultsAF patients were from Germany (n = 63,562), the UK (n = 42,652), France (n = 7,213), Australia (n = 2,753), and Belgium (n = 1,371). Cases were more likely to have hypertension or other cardiac conditions than controls in all validation datasets compared to the model development data. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in the validation datasets ranged from 0.79 (Belgium) to 0.84 (Germany), comparable to the German study model, which had an area under the curve of 0.83. Most validation sets reported similar specificity at approximately 80% sensitivity, ranging from 67% (France) to 71% (United Kingdom). The positive predictive value (PPV) ranged from 2% (Belgium) to 16% (Germany), and the number needed to be screened was 50 in Belgium and 6 in Germany. The prevalence of AF varied widely between these datasets, which may be related to different coding practices. Low prevalence affected PPV, but not sensitivity, specificity, and ROC curves.ConclusionsAF risk prediction algorithms offer targeted ways to identify patients using electronic health records, which could improve screening number and the cost-effectiveness of AF screening if implemented in clinical practice.

Dataset Information

Use of electronic healthcare records to identify complex patients with atrial fibrillation for targeted intervention.

Publications

Use of electronic healthcare records to identify complex patients with atrial fibrillation for targeted intervention.

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