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Derivation and validation of modified early warning score plus SpO2/FiO2 score for predicting acute deterioration of patients with hematological malignancies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND/AIMS:Scoring systems play an important role in predicting intensive care unit (ICU) admission or estimating the risk of death in critically ill patients with hematological malignancies. We evaluated the modified early warning score (MEWS) for predicting ICU admissions and in-hospital mortality among at-risk patients with hematological malignancies and developed an optimized MEWS. METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed derivation cohort patients with hematological malignancies who were managed by a medical emergency team (MET) in the general ward and prospectively validated the data. We compared the traditional MEWS with the MEWS plus SpO2/FiO2 (MEWS_SF) score, which were calculated at the time of MET contact. RESULTS:In the derivation cohort, the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were 0.81 for the MEWS (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76 to 0.87) and 0.87 for the MEWS_SF score (95% CI, 0.87 to 0.92) for predicting ICU admission. The AUROC curves were 0.70 for the MEWS (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.77) and 0.76 for the MEWS_SF score (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.83) for predicting in-hospital mortality. In the validation cohort, the AUROC curves were 0.71 for the MEWS (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.77) and 0.83 for the MEWS_SF score (95% CI, 0.78 to 0.87) for predicting ICU admission. The AUROC curves were 0.64 for the MEWS (95% CI, 0.57 to 0.70) and 0.74 for the MEWS_SF score (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.80) for predicting in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION:Compared to the traditional MEWS, the MEWS_SF score may be a useful tool that can be used in the general ward to identify deteriorating patients with hematological malignancies.

SUBMITTER: Lee JR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7652654 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Derivation and validation of modified early warning score plus SpO2/FiO2 score for predicting acute deterioration of patients with hematological malignancies.

Lee Ju-Ry JR Jung Youn-Kyoung YK Kim Hwa Jung HJ Koh Younsuck Y Lim Chae-Man CM Hong Sang-Bum SB Huh Jin Won JW

The Korean journal of internal medicine 20200303 6

<h4>Background/aims</h4>Scoring systems play an important role in predicting intensive care unit (ICU) admission or estimating the risk of death in critically ill patients with hematological malignancies. We evaluated the modified early warning score (MEWS) for predicting ICU admissions and in-hospital mortality among at-risk patients with hematological malignancies and developed an optimized MEWS.<h4>Methods</h4>We retrospectively analyzed derivation cohort patients with hematological malignanc ...[more]

PMID: 32114753

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:In the contemporary ICU, mechanically ventilated patients may not have arterial blood gas measurements available at relevant timepoints. Severity criteria often depend on arterial blood gas results. Retrospective studies suggest that nonlinear imputation of PaO2/FIO2 from SpO2/FIO2 is accurate, but this has not been established prospectively among mechanically ventilated ICU patients. The objective was to validate the superiority of nonlinear imputation of PaO2/FIO2 among mechanically ventilated patients and understand what factors influence the accuracy of imputation. DESIGN:Simultaneous SpO2, oximeter characteristics, receipt of vasopressors, and skin pigmentation were recorded at the time of a clinical arterial blood gas. Acute respiratory distress syndrome criteria were recorded. For each imputation method, we calculated both imputation error and the area under the curve for patients meeting criteria for acute respiratory distress syndrome (PaO2/FIO2 ? 300) and moderate-severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (PaO2/FIO2 ? 150). SETTING:Nine hospitals within the Prevention and Early Treatment of Acute Lung Injury network. PATIENTS:We prospectively enrolled 703 mechanically ventilated patients admitted to the emergency departments or ICUs of participating study hospitals. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:We studied 1,034 arterial blood gases from 703 patients; 650 arterial blood gases were associated with SpO2 less than or equal to 96%. Nonlinear imputation had consistently lower error than other techniques. Among all patients, nonlinear had a lower error (p < 0.001) and higher (p < 0.001) area under the curve (0.87; 95% CI, 0.85-0.90) for PaO2/FIO2 less than or equal to 300 than linear/log-linear (0.80; 95% CI, 0.76-0.83) imputation. All imputation methods better identified moderate-severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (PaO2/FIO2 ? 150); nonlinear imputation remained superior (p < 0.001). For PaO2/FIO2 less than or equal to 150, the sensitivity and specificity for nonlinear imputation were 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.90) and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88-0.93), respectively. Skin pigmentation and receipt of vasopressors were not associated with imputation accuracy. CONCLUSIONS:In mechanically ventilated patients, nonlinear imputation of PaO2/FIO2 from SpO2/FIO2 seems accurate, especially for moderate-severe hypoxemia. Linear and log-linear imputations cannot be recommended.

Project description:Managing the oxygen saturation of preterm infants to a target range has been the standard of care for a decade. Changes in target ranges have been shown to significantly impact mortality and morbidity. Selecting and implementing the optimal target range are complicated not only by issues of training, but also the realities of staffing levels and demands. The potential for automatic control is becoming a reality. Results from the evaluation of different systems have been promising and our own experience encouraging.This study was conducted in two tertiary level newborn nurseries, routinely using an automated FiO2-SpO2 control system (Avea-CLiO2, Yorba Linda CA, USA). The aim of this study was to compare the performance of the system as used routinely (set control range of 87-93% SpO2), to a narrower higher range (90-93%). We employed a 12-hour cross-over design with the order of control ranges randomly assigned for each of up to three days. The primary prospectively identified end points were time in the 87-93% SpO2 target range, time at SpO2 extremes and the distribution of the SpO2 exposure.Twenty-one infants completed the study. The infants were born with a median EGA of 27 weeks and studied at a median age of 17 days and weight of 1.08 kg. Their median FiO2 was 0.32; 8 were intubated, and the rest noninvasively supported (7 positive pressure ventilation and 6 CPAP). The control in both arms was excellent, and required less than 2 manual FiO2 adjustments per day. There were no differences in the three primary endpoints. The narrower/higher set control range resulted in tighter control (IQR 3.0 vs. 4.3 p < 0.001), and less time with the SpO2 between 80-86 (6.2% vs. 8.4%, p = 0.006).We found that a shift in the median of the set control range of an automated FiO2-SpO2 control system had a proportional effect on the median and distribution of SpO2 exposure. We found that a dramatic narrowing of the set control range had a disproportionally smaller impact. Our study points to the potential to optimize SpO2 targeting with an automated control system.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:Previous studies have looked at National Early Warning Score performance in predicting in-hospital deterioration and death, but data are lacking with respect to patient outcomes following implementation of National Early Warning Score. We sought to determine the effectiveness of National Early Warning Score implementation on predicting and preventing patient deterioration in a clinical setting. DESIGN:Retrospective cohort study. SETTING:Tertiary care academic facility and a community hospital. PATIENTS:Patients 18 years old or older hospitalized from March 1, 2014, to February 28, 2015, during preimplementation of National Early Warning Score to August 1, 2015, to July 31, 2016, after National Early Warning Score was implemented. INTERVENTIONS:Implementation of National Early Warning Score within the electronic health record and associated best practice alert. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:In this study of 85,322 patients (42,402 patients pre-National Early Warning Score and 42,920 patients post-National Early Warning Score implementation), the primary outcome of rate of ICU transfer or death did not change after National Early Warning Score implementation, with adjusted hazard ratio of 0.94 (0.84-1.05) and 0.90 (0.77-1.05) at our academic and community hospital, respectively. In total, 175,357 best practice advisories fired during the study period, with the best practice advisory performing better at the community hospital than the academic at predicting an event within 12 hours 7.4% versus 2.2% of the time, respectively. Retraining National Early Warning Score with newly generated hospital-specific coefficients improved model performance. CONCLUSIONS:At both our academic and community hospital, National Early Warning Score had poor performance characteristics and was generally ignored by frontline nursing staff. As a result, National Early Warning Score implementation had no appreciable impact on defined clinical outcomes. Refitting of the model using site-specific data improved performance and supports validating predictive models on local data.

Project description:BACKGROUND:The national early warning score (NEWS) enables early detection of in-hospital patient deterioration and timely activation of hospital's rapid response team (RRT). NEWS was updated in 2017 to include a separate SpO2 scale for those patients with type II respiratory failure (T2RF). In this study we investigated whether NEWS with and without the new SpO2 scale for the T2RF patients is associated with immediate and in-hospital patient outcomes among the patients actually attended by the RRT. METHODS:We conducted a two-year prospective observational study including all adult RRT patients without limitations of medical treatment (LOMT) in a large Finnish university associated tertiary level hospital. According to the first vital signs measured by the RRT, we calculated NEWSs for the RRT patients and further utilized the new SpO2 scale for the patients with confirmed T2RF. We used multivariate logistic regression and area under the receiver operating characteristic analyses to test NEWS's accuracy to predict two distinct outcomes: RRT patient's I) immediate need for intensive care and/or new LOMT and 2) in-hospital death or discharge with cerebral performance category >2 and/or LOMT. RESULTS:The final cohort consisted of 886 RRT patients attended for the first time during their hospitalization. Most common reasons for RRT activation were respiratory (343, 39%) and circulatory (226, 26%) problems. Cohort's median (Q1, Q3) NEWS at RRT arrival was 8 (5, 10) and remained unchanged if the new SpO2 scale was applied for the 104 patients with confirmed T2RF. Higher NEWS was independently associated with both immediate (OR 1.28; 95% CI 1.22-1.35) and in-hospital (1.15; 1.10-1.21) adverse outcomes. Further, NEWS had fair discrimination for both the immediate (AUROC 0.73; 0.69-0.77) and in-hospital (0.68; 0.64-0.72) outcomes. Utilizing the new SpO2 scale for the patients with confirmed T2RF did not improve the discrimination capability (0.73; 0.69-0.76 and 0.68; 0.64-0.71) for these outcomes, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:We found that in patients attended by a RRT, the NEWS predicts patient's hospital outcome with moderate accuracy. We did not find any improvement using the new SpO2 scale in T2RF patients.

Project description:We sought to validate prognostic scores in coronavirus disease 2019 including National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and age-based modifications, and define their performance characteristics.DesignWe analyzed prospectively collected data from the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial. National Early Warning Score was collected daily during the trial, Modified Early Warning Score was calculated, and age applied to both scores. We assessed prognostic value for the end points of recovery, mechanical ventilation, and death for score at enrollment, average, and slope of score over the first 48 hours.SettingA multisite international inpatient trial.PatientsA total of 1,062 adult nonpregnant inpatients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia.InterventionsAdaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 randomized participants to receive remdesivir or placebo. The prognostic value of predictive scores was evaluated in both groups separately to assess for differential performance in the setting of remdesivir treatment.Measurements and main resultsFor mortality, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.60-0.68), and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.66-0.74). For recovery, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated somewhat better prognostic ability (c-index, 0.65-0.69); however, National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age further improved performance (c-index, 0.68-0.71). For deterioration, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.59-0.69) and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.63-0.70). All prognostic performance improvements due to addition of age were significant (p < 0.05).ConclusionsIn the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 cohort, National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated moderate prognostic performance in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019, with improvement in predictive ability for National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age. Area under receiver operating curve for National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score improved in patients receiving remdesivir versus placebo early in the pandemic for recovery and mortality. Although these scores are simple and readily obtainable in myriad settings, in our data set, they were insufficiently predictive to completely replace clinical judgment in coronavirus disease 2019 and may serve best as an adjunct to triage, disposition, and resourcing decisions.

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Derivation and validation of modified early warning score plus SpO2/FiO2 score for predicting acute deterioration of patients with hematological malignancies.

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Derivation and validation of modified early warning score plus SpO2/FiO2 score for predicting acute deterioration of patients with hematological malignancies.

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