Dataset Information

Single-nucleotide polymorphism biomarkers of adjuvant anastrozole-induced estrogen suppression in early breast cancer.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Based on our previous findings that postmenopausal women with estrone (E1) and estradiol (E2) concentrations at or above 1.3 pg/ml and 0.5 pg/ml, respectively, after 6 months of adjuvant anastrozole therapy had a three-fold risk of recurrence, we aimed to identify a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based model that would predict elevated E1 and E2 and then validate it in an independent dataset.

Patients and methods

The test set consisted of 322 women from the M3 study and the validation set consisted of 152 patients from MA.27. All patients were treated with adjuvant anastrozole, had on-anastrozole E1 and E2 concentrations and genome-wide genotyping.

Results

SNPs were identified from the M3 genome-wide association study. The best model to predict the E1-E2 phenotype with high balanced accuracy was a support vector machine model using clinical factors plus 46 SNPs. We did not have an independent cohort that is similar to the M3 study with clinical, E1-E2 phenotypes and genotype data to test our model. Hence, we chose a nested matched case-control cohort (MA.27 study) for testing. Our E1-E2 model was not validated but we found the MA.27 validation cohort was both clinically and genomically different.

Conclusions

We identified a SNP-based model that had excellent performance characteristics for predicting the phenotype of elevated E1 and E2 in women treated with anastrozole. This model was not validated in an independent dataset but that dataset was clinically and genomically substantially different. The model will need validation in a prospective study.

SUBMITTER: Ingle JN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7655717 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND: This paper introduces and applies a genome wide predictive study to learn a model that predicts whether a new subject will develop breast cancer or not, based on her SNP profile. RESULTS: We first genotyped 696 female subjects (348 breast cancer cases and 348 apparently healthy controls), predominantly of Caucasian origin from Alberta, Canada using Affymetrix Human SNP 6.0 arrays. Then, we applied EIGENSTRAT population stratification correction method to remove 73 subjects not belonging to the Caucasian population. Then, we filtered any SNP that had any missing calls, whose genotype frequency was deviated from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, or whose minor allele frequency was less than 5%. Finally, we applied a combination of MeanDiff feature selection method and KNN learning method to this filtered dataset to produce a breast cancer prediction model. LOOCV accuracy of this classifier is 59.55%. Random permutation tests show that this result is significantly better than the baseline accuracy of 51.52%. Sensitivity analysis shows that the classifier is fairly robust to the number of MeanDiff-selected SNPs. External validation on the CGEMS breast cancer dataset, the only other publicly available breast cancer dataset, shows that this combination of MeanDiff and KNN leads to a LOOCV accuracy of 60.25%, which is significantly better than its baseline of 50.06%. We then considered a dozen different combinations of feature selection and learning method, but found that none of these combinations produces a better predictive model than our model. We also considered various biological feature selection methods like selecting SNPs reported in recent genome wide association studies to be associated with breast cancer, selecting SNPs in genes associated with KEGG cancer pathways, or selecting SNPs associated with breast cancer in the F-SNP database to produce predictive models, but again found that none of these models achieved accuracy better than baseline. CONCLUSIONS: We anticipate producing more accurate breast cancer prediction models by recruiting more study subjects, providing more accurate labelling of phenotypes (to accommodate the heterogeneity of breast cancer), measuring other genomic alterations such as point mutations and copy number variations, and incorporating non-genetic information about subjects such as environmental and lifestyle factors.