Models for acute on chronic liver failure development and mortality in a veterans affairs cohort.
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ABSTRACT: Background and purpose
The diagnosis of acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries a high short-term mortality, making early identification of at-risk patients crucial. To date, there are no models that predict which patients with compensated cirrhosis will develop ACLF, and limited models exist to predict ACLF mortality. We sought to create novel risk prediction models using a large North American cohort.Methods
We performed a retrospective study of 75,922 patients with compensated cirrhosis from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) dataset. Using 70% derivation/30% validation sets, we identified ACLF patients using the Asian Pacific Association of Liver (APASL) definition. Multivariable logistic regression was used to derive prediction models (called VOCAL-Penn) for developing ACLF at 3, 6, and 12 months. We then created prediction models for ACLF mortality at 28 and 90 days.Results
The VOCAL-Penn models for ACLF development had very good discrimination [concordance (C) statistics of 0.93, 0.92, and 0.89 at 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively] and calibration. The mortality models also had good discrimination at 28 and 90 days (C statistics 0.89 and 0.88, respectively), outperforming the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium, and the APASL ACLF Research Consortium ACLF scores.Conclusion
We have developed novel tools for predicting development of ACLF in compensated cirrhosis patients, as well as for ACLF mortality. These tools may be used to proactively guide patient follow-up, prognostication, escalation of care, and transplant evaluation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for predicting development of APASL ACLF at 3 months (a), 6 months (b), and 1 year (c).
SUBMITTER: Xiao KY
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7656856 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Backgrounds & aimsThere is a need to identify therapies that prevent the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with cirrhosis. This study sought to evaluate the association between statin exposure and the risk of developing ACLF in a large national cohort of patients with cirrhosis.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with cirrhosis within the Veterans Health Administration from 2008 and 2018. Patients were stratified into 3 groups based on statin exposure (statin naïve, existing statin user, and new statin initiator). Cox proportional hazards regression models with inverse probability treatment weighting and marginal structural models were utilized to comprehensively address potential confounding in estimating the association between time-updated statin exposure and first occurrence of high-grade ACLF.ResultsThe cohort included 84,963 patients, of whom 26.9% were on a statin at baseline. A total of 8,558 (10.1%) patients with cirrhosis were hospitalized with high-grade ACLF over a median follow-up time of 51.6 months (IQR 27.5-81.4). Time-updated statin use was associated with a significant reduction in the hazard of developing ACLF (hazard ratio [HR] 0.62, 95% CI 0.59-0.65, p <0.001). Increasing doses of statin were associated with progressively reduced hazard of developing ACLF (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.66-0.86, p <0.001 for <20 mg vs. 0 mg of time-updated statin exposure, in simvastatin equivalents; HR 0.61, 95%, CI 0.58-0.64, p <0.001 for >20 mg vs. 0 mg statin exposure). Furthermore, every additional 5 months of statin exposure was associated with a 9% reduced hazard of high-grade ACLF (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.90-0.92, p <0.001).ConclusionsIn this large, retrospective, cohort study in patients with cirrhosis, statin use was significantly associated with reduced development of high-grade ACLF.Lay summaryStatin therapy has been shown to have numerous beneficial effects in patients with chronic liver disease. This study demonstrated a strong association between statin therapy and a reduced risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure development in patients with cirrhosis. The results of this study support the promising role that statins may play in future prevention of acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with cirrhosis.
| S-EPMC9018495 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background & aimsAcute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) causes high short-term mortality in patients with previously stable chronic liver disease. To date there are no models to predict which patients are likely to develop ACLF, and existing models to predict ACLF mortality are based on limited cohorts. We sought to create novel risk prediction scores using a large cohort of patients with cirrhosis.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of 74 790 patients with incident cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration database using randomized 70% derivation/30% validation sets. ACLF events were identified per the European ACLF criteria. Multivariable logistic regression was used to derive prediction models for developing ACLF at 3, 6 and 12 months, and ACLF mortality at 28 and 90 days. Mortality models were compared to model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-sodium and the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF score.ResultsModels for the developing ACLF had very good discrimination (concordance [C] statistics 0.83-0.87) at all timepoints. Models for ACLF mortality also had good discrimination at 28 and 90 days (C-statistics 0.79-0.82), and were superior to MELD, MELD-sodium and the CLIF-C ACLF score. The calibration of the novel models was excellent at all timepoints.ConclusionWe have obtained highly-predictive models for developing ACLF, as well as for ACLF short-term mortality in a diverse United States cohort. These may be used to identify outpatients at significant risk of ACLF, which may prompt closer follow-up or early transplant referral, and facilitate decision making for patients with diagnosed ACLF, including escalation of care, expedited transplant evaluation or palliation.
| S-EPMC7371261 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceLittle contemporary information is available about comparative performance between Veterans Affairs (VA) and non-VA hospitals, particularly related to mortality and readmission rates, 2 important outcomes of care.ObjectiveTo assess and compare mortality and readmission rates among men in VA and non-VA hospitals.Design, setting, and participantsCross-sectional analysis involving male Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older hospitalized between 2010 and 2013 in VA and non-VA acute care hospitals for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), or pneumonia using the Medicare Standard Analytic Files and Enrollment Database together with VA administrative claims data. To avoid confounding geographic effects with health care system effects, we studied VA and non-VA hospitals within the same metropolitan statistical area (MSA).ExposuresHospitalization in a VA or non-VA hospital in MSAs that contained at least 1 VA and non-VA hospital.Main outcomes and measuresFor each condition, 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates and risk-standardized readmission rates for VA and non-VA hospitals. Mean aggregated within-MSA differences in mortality and readmission rates were also assessed.ResultsWe studied 104 VA and 1513 non-VA hospitals, with each condition-outcome analysis cohort for VA and non-VA hospitals containing at least 7900 patients (men; ≥65 years), in 92 MSAs. Mortality rates were lower in VA hospitals than non-VA hospitals for AMI (13.5% vs 13.7%, P = .02; -0.2 percentage-point difference) and HF (11.4% vs 11.9%, P = .008; -0.5 percentage-point difference), but higher for pneumonia (12.6% vs 12.2%, P = .045; 0.4 percentage-point difference). In contrast, readmission rates were higher in VA hospitals for all 3 conditions (AMI, 17.8% vs 17.2%, 0.6 percentage-point difference; HF, 24.7% vs 23.5%, 1.2 percentage-point difference; pneumonia, 19.4% vs 18.7%, 0.7 percentage-point difference, all P < .001). In within-MSA comparisons, VA hospitals had lower mortality rates for AMI (percentage-point difference, -0.22; 95% CI, -0.40 to -0.04) and HF (-0.63; 95% CI, -0.95 to -0.31), and mortality rates for pneumonia were not significantly different (-0.03; 95% CI, -0.46 to 0.40); however, VA hospitals had higher readmission rates for AMI (0.62; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.75), HF (0.97; 95% CI, 0.59 to 1.34), or pneumonia (0.66; 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.91).Conclusions and relevanceAmong older men with AMI, HF, or pneumonia, hospitalization at VA hospitals, compared with hospitalization at non-VA hospitals, was associated with lower 30-day risk-standardized all-cause mortality rates for AMI and HF, and higher 30-day risk-standardized all-cause readmission rates for all 3 conditions, both nationally and within similar geographic areas, although absolute differences between these outcomes at VA and non-VA hospitals were small.
| S-EPMC5459395 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To validate prognostic scores for acute decompensation of cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure in Brazilian patients.This is a prospective cohort study designed to assess the prognostic performance of the chronic liver failure-consortium (CLIF-C) acute decompensation score (CLIF-C AD) and CLIF-C acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C ACLF), regarding 28-d and 90-d mortality, as well as to compare them to other prognostic models, such as Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD Sodium (MELD-Na), Child-Pugh (CP) score, and the CLIF-C Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OF). All participants were adults with acute decompensation of cirrhosis admitted to the Emergency Department of a tertiary hospital in southern Brazil. Prognostic performances were evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curves (AUC) and 95%CI.One hundred and thirteen cirrhotic patients were included. At admission, 18 patients had acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and 95 individuals had acute decompensation (AD) without ACLF, of which 24 eventually developed ACLF during the course of hospitalization (AD evolving to ACLF group). The AD group had significantly lower 28-d (9.0%) and 90-d (18.3%) mortality as compared to the AD evolving to ACLF group and to the ACLF group (both P < 0.001). On the other hand, 28-d and 90-d mortalities were not significantly different between AD evolving to ACLF group and ACLF group (P = 0.542 and P = 0.708, respectively). Among patients with ACLF, at 28 d from the diagnosis, CLIF-C ACLF was the only score able to predict mortality significantly better than the reference line, with an AUC (95%CI) of 0.71 (95%CI: 0.54-0.88, P = 0.021). Among patients with AD, all prognostic scores performed significantly better than the reference line regarding 28-d mortality, presenting with similar AUCs: CLIF-C AD score 0.75 (95%CI: 0.63-0.88), CP score 0.72 (95%CI: 0.59-0.85), MELD score 0.75 (95%CI: 0.61-0.90), MELD-Na score 0.76 (95%CI: 0.61-0.90), and CLIF-C OF score 0.74 (95%CI: 0.60-0.88). The same occurred concerning AUCs for 90-d mortality: CLIF-C AD score 0.70 (95%CI: 0.57-0.82), CP score 0.73 (95%CI: 0.62-0.84), MELD score 0.71 (95%CI: 0.59-0.83), MELD-Na score 0.73 (95%CI: 0.62-0.84), and CLIF-C OF score 0.65 (95%CI: 0.52-0.78).This study demonstrated that CLIF-C ACLF is the best available score for the prediction of 28-d mortality among patients with ACLF. CLIF-C AD score is also useful for the prediction of mortality among cirrhotic patients with AD not fulfilling diagnostic criteria for ACLF, but it was not superior to other well-established prognostic scores.
| S-EPMC5537190 | biostudies-other
Project description:ImportanceThe benefits of maintenance dialysis for older adults with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are uncertain. Whether the setting of pre-ESRD nephrology care influences initiation of dialysis and mortality is not known.ObjectiveTo compare initiation of dialysis and mortality among older veterans with incident kidney failure who received pre-ESRD nephrology care in fee-for-service Medicare vs the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA).Design, setting, and participantsRetrospective cohort study of patients from the US Medicare and VA health care systems evaluated 11 215 veterans aged 67 years or older with incident kidney failure between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2011. Data analysis was performed March 15, 2016, through September 20, 2017.ExposuresPre-ESRD nephrology care in Medicare vs VA health care systems.Main outcome and measuresDialysis treatment and death within 2 years.ResultsOf the 11 215 patients included in the study, 11 085 (98.8%) were men; mean (SD) age was 79.1 (6.9) years. Within 2 years of incident kidney failure, 7071 (63.0%) of the patients started dialysis and 5280 (47.1%) died. Patients who received pre-ESRD nephrology care in Medicare were more likely to undergo dialysis compared with patients who received pre-ESRD nephrology care in VA (82% vs 53%; adjusted risk difference, 28 percentage points; 95% CI, 26-30 percentage points). Differences in dialysis initiation between Medicare and VA were more pronounced among patients aged 80 years or older and patients with dementia or metastatic cancer, and less pronounced among patients with paralysis (P < .05 for interaction). Two-year mortality was higher for patients who received pre-ESRD care in Medicare compared with VA (53% vs 44%; adjusted risk difference, 5 percentage points; 95% CI, 3-7 percentage points). The findings were similar in a propensity-matched analysis.Conclusions and relevanceVeterans who receive pre-ESRD nephrology care in Medicare receive dialysis more often yet are also more likely to die within 2 years compared with those in VA. The VA's integrated health care system and financing appear to favor lower-intensity treatment for kidney failure in older patients without a concomitant increase in mortality.
| S-EPMC6583073 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsWe studied in-hospital predictors of mortality of acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) in Indian patients.MethodsPatients admitted to the intensive care unit of our institute fulfilling the definition of ACLF based on the Asia-Pacific Association for Study of Liver Disease (APASL) consensus were included. Complete history and medical evaluation to assess the etiology of underlying liver cirrhosis and to identify the acute precipitating insult of worsening liver function was done. Data was prospectively recorded and various scoring systems and individual clinical and laboratory parameters were assessed to identify predictors of 28 days mortality.Results64 out of 240 patients screened for ACLF were analyszed in the study. Median age was 44 years and 53% were males. Alcohol was the primary cause of cirrhosis in 60.93%. Infections and active alcoholism was the main precipitating acute insult in 43% and 37% patients respectively. 28% patients had history of ingestion of hepato-toxic drugs as the acute insult. More than one acute insult was seen in 37.5% patients and type-II hepatic injury was the most common type. 28 days in hospital mortality was 43.75% and was highest in patients with sepsis (67.8%). Presence of hepato-renal syndrome and need for ventilation was associated with poor outcome. Though multiple variables were significant in predicting mortality on univariate analysis, yet on regression model only APACHE II and shock could significantly predict mortality with odds ratio of 3.18 and 9.14 respectively. Highest mortality was seen with cerebral and lung as organ failure and mortality increased as the number of organ failure worsened. CLIF-SOFA and APACHE-II scores having area under curve > 0.8 had higher ability to predict mortality.ConclusionACLF carries high short-term mortality and early intervention by liver transplantation should be considered in patients who shows high risk of mortality.
| S-EPMC5992306 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Over the past 2 decades, the concept of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has been proposed as an alternate path in the natural history of decompensated cirrhosis. ACLF thus is characterized by the presence of a precipitating event (identified or unidentified) in subjects with underlying chronic liver disease leading to rapid progression of liver injury and ending in multi-organ dysfunction characterized by high short-term mortality. Multiple organ failure and an increased risk for mortality are key to the diagnosis of ACLF. The prevalence of ACLF ranges from 24% to 40% in hospitalized patients. The pathophysiological basis of ACLF can be explained using the following 4-part model: predisposing event, injury caused by a precipitating event, response to injury, and organ failure. Although several mathematic scores have been proposed for identifying outcomes with ACLF, it is as yet unclear whether these organ failure scores are truly prognostic or only reflective of the dying process. Treatment paradigms continue to evolve but consist of early recognition, supportive intensive care, and consideration of liver transplantation before onset of irreversible multiple organ failure.
| S-EPMC4625547 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Acute deterioration of liver cirrhosis (e.g., infections, acute-on-chronic liver failure [ACLF]) requires an increase in cardiac contractility. The insufficiency to respond to these situations could be deleterious. Left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LV-GLS) has been shown to reflect left cardiac contractility in cirrhosis better than other parameters and might bear prognostic value. Therefore, this retrospective study investigated the role of LV-GLS in the outcome after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) and the development of ACLF. We included 114 patients (48 female patients) from the Noninvasive Evaluation Program for TIPS and Their Follow-Up Network (NEPTUN) cohort. This number provided sufficient quality and structured follow-up with the possibility of calculating major scores (Child, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease [MELD], Chronic Liver Failure Consortium acute decompensation [CLIF-C AD] scores) and recording of the events (development of decompensation episode and ACLF). We analyzed the association of LV-GLS with overall mortality and development of ACLF in patients with TIPS. LV-GLS was independently associated with overall mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.123; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.010-1.250) together with aspartate aminotransferase (HR, 1.009; 95% CI, 1.004-1.014) and CLIF-C AD score (HR, 1.080; 95% CI, 1.018-1.137). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis for LV-GLS for overall survival showed higher area under the curve (AUC) than MELD and CLIF-C AD scores (AUC, 0.688 versus 0.646 and 0.573, respectively). The best AUROC-determined LV-GLS cutoff was -16.6% to identify patients with a significantly worse outcome after TIPS at 3 months, 6 months, and overall. LV-GLS was independently associated with development of ACLF (HR, 1.613; 95% CI, 1.025-2.540) together with a MELD score above 15 (HR, 2.222; 95% CI, 1.400-3.528). Conclusion: LV-GLS is useful for identifying patients at risk of developing ACLF and a worse outcome after TIPS. Although validation is required, this tool might help to stratify risk in patients receiving TIPS.
| S-EPMC6444053 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAccurate population-based data are required concerning the rate, economic impact, and long-term outcome from acute on chronic liver failures (ACLF) in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to discover time trends for the epidemiology, economic burden, and mortality of ACLF in Thailand.MethodsWe conducted a nationwide, population-based, cohort study which involved all hospitalized patients with cirrhosis in Thailand during the period between 2009 and 2013, with data from the National Health Security Office. ACLF was defined by two or more extrahepatic organ failures in patients with cirrhosis. Primary outcomes were trends in hospitalizations, hospital costs, together with inpatient mortality.ResultsThe number of ACLF hospitalizations in Thailand doubled between 3185 in 2009 and 7666 in 2013. The average cost of each ACLF hospitalization was 3.5-fold higher than for cirrhosis ($ 1893 versus $ 519). The hospital is paid using a diagnosis-related group (DRG) payment system that is only 15% of the average treatment costs ($ 286 from $ 1893). The in-hospital fatality rate was 51% for ACLF while the additional fatality rate was 85% up to 1 year. The ACLF organ failure trends indicated sepsis with septic shock and renal failure as the majority proportion. Age, the number and types of organ failure and male sex were predictors of ACLF death.Conclusions and relevanceCirrhosis and ACLF both represent substantial and increasing health and economic burdens for Thailand. These data can assist national health care policy stakeholders to target high-risk patients with cirrhosis for care.
| S-EPMC8819862 | biostudies-literature
Project description:B- and T-lymphocyte attenuator (BTLA) levels are increased in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). This condition is characterized by susceptibility to infection and T-cell immune exhaustion. However, whether BTLA can induce T-cell immune exhaustion and increase the risk of infection remains unclear. Here, we report that BTLA levels are significantly increased in the circulating and intrahepatic CD4+ T cells from patients with HBV-ACLF, and are positively correlated with disease severity, prognosis, and infection complications. BTLA levels are upregulated by the IL-6 and TNF signaling pathways, and are abolished or partially weakened by IL-6 and TNF inhibitors. Antibody crosslinking of BTLA activated the PI3K-Akt pathway to inhibit the activation, proliferation, and cytokine production of CD4+ T cells while promoting their apoptosis. In contrast, BTLA knockdown promoted their activation and proliferation. BTLA-/- ACLF mice exhibited increased cytokine secretion, and reduced mortality and bacterial burden. The administration of a neutralizing anti-BTLA antibody reduced Klebsiella pneumoniae load and mortality in ACLF mice. These data help elucidate HBV-ACLF pathogenesis and aid in identifying novel drug targets.
2023-12-21 | GSE248217 | GEO