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Association between serum calcium and prognosis in patients with acute pulmonary embolism and the optimization of pulmonary embolism severity index.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:Calcium is an important coagulation factor and hypocalcemia is related to progression and poor prognosis of many cardiopulmonary diseases. However, influence of hypocalcemia on pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) prognosis has never been reported. This study aimed to explore its prognostic value and optimize the pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI), the widely used prognosis assessment model, based on the value. METHODS:PTE patients' variables in PESI and other related clinical characteristics including admission serum calcium were collected. Associations between these variables and PTE mortality were assessed by logistic regression and cox analysis. Variables significantly associated with 30-day PTE mortality were included to develop a new prognosis prediction rule and then its validity was compared with PESI and simplified PESI (sPESI). RESULTS:496 PTE patients were included and 49.48% patients had hypocalcemia (serum calcium???2.13 mmol/L) in admission, showing higher 7-day (P?=?0.021), 14-day (P?=?0.002), 30-day (13.03% vs 4.98%, P?=?0.002) mortalities than patients without hypocalcemia. Adjusting for variables in PESI, hypocalcemia was further revealed to be an independent predictor of 30-day mortality (P?=?0.014). The optimal prediction rule contained hypocalcemia and 5 variables in PESI and sPESI, showing higher predictive validity [sensitivity (Sen): 0.930, specificity (Spec): 0.390, area under curve (AUC): 0.800] than PESI (Sen: 0.814, Spec: 0.367, AUC: 0.716) and sPESI (Sen: 0.907, Spec: 0.216, AUC: 0.703). CONCLUSIONS:Hypocalcemia is an independent predictor of the mortality following acute PTE. Based on hypocalcemia, the optimal prediction rule showed higher validity than PESI and sPESI.

SUBMITTER: Wang X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7659049 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Association between serum calcium and prognosis in patients with acute pulmonary embolism and the optimization of pulmonary embolism severity index.

Wang Xin X Xiang Yongbo Y Zhang Ting T Yang Yuqing Y Sun Xuefeng X Shi Juhong J

Respiratory research 20201111 1

<h4>Introduction</h4>Calcium is an important coagulation factor and hypocalcemia is related to progression and poor prognosis of many cardiopulmonary diseases. However, influence of hypocalcemia on pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) prognosis has never been reported. This study aimed to explore its prognostic value and optimize the pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI), the widely used prognosis assessment model, based on the value.<h4>Methods</h4>PTE patients' variables in PESI and other relate ...[more]

PMID: 33176778

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Project description:BackgroundPrognostic assessment is important for the management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE). Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and simple PESI (sPESI) are new emerged prognostic assessment tools for APE. The aim of this meta-analysis is to assess the accuracy of the PESI and the sPESI to predict prognostic outcomes (all-cause and PE-related mortality, serious adverse events) in APE patients, and compare between these two PESIs.MethodsMEDLINE and EMBASE database were searched up to June 2012 using the terms "Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index" and "pulmonary embolism". Summary odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for prognostic outcomes in low risk PESI versus high risk PESI were calculated. Summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC) used to estimate overall predicting accuracies of prognostic outcomes.ResultsTwenty-one studies were included in this meta-analysis. The results showed low-risk PESI was significantly associated with lower all-cause mortality (OR 0.13; 95% CI 0.12 to 0.15), PE-related mortality (OR 0.09; 95% CI 0.05 to 0.17) and serious adverse events (OR 0.34; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.41), with no homogeneity across studies. In sPESI subgroup, the OR of all-cause mortality, PE-related mortality, and serious adverse events was 0.10 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.14), 0.09 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.26) and 0.40 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.51), respectively; while in PESI subgroup, the OR was 0.14 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.16), 0.09 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.21), and 0.30 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.38), respectively. For accuracy analysis, the pooled sensitivity, the pooled specificity, and the overall weighted AUC for PESI predicting all-cause mortality was 0.909 (95% CI: 0.900 to 0.916), 0.411 (95% CI: 0.407 to 0.415), and 0.7853±0.0058, respectively; for PE-related mortality, it was 0.953 (95% CI: 0.913 to 0.978), 0.374 (95% CI: 0.360 to 0.388), and 0.8218±0.0349, respectively; for serious adverse events, it was 0.821 (95% CI: 0.795 to 0.845), 0.389 (95% CI: 0.384 to 0.394), and 0.6809±0.0208, respectively. In sPESI subgroup, the AUC for predicting all-cause mortality, PE-related mortality, and serious adverse events was 0.7920±0.0117, 0.8317±0.0547, and 0.6454±0.0197, respectively. In PESI subgroup, the AUC was 0.7856±0.0075, 0.8158±0.0451, and 0.6609±0.0252, respectively.ConclusionsPESI has discriminative power to predict the short-term death and adverse outcome events in patients with acute pulmonary embolism, the PESI and the sPESI have similar accuracy, while sPESI is easier to use. However, the calibration for predicting prognosis can't be calculated from this meta-analysis, some prospective studies for accessing PESI predicting calibration can be recommended.

Project description:ObjectivesTo investigate the characteristics of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and its impact on prognosis in acute pulmonary embolism (aPE).DesignA retrospective cohort study SETTING: The study cohort included patients diagnosed with aPE who were admitted to the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 2017 to January 2019.ParticipantsPatients were ≥18 years of age and hospitalised for aPE.Outcome measuresAF was diagnosed based on an ECG recording or a Holter monitor during hospitalisation. aPE was diagnosed by CT pulmonary angiography. The prescription was determined from the discharge medication list. All-cause mortality was observed after 6-month follow-up. The logistic regression model and Cox proportional hazards model were used to study the risk factor of the new-onset AF and the predictor of all-cause mortality, respectively.ResultsA total of 590 patients with aPE were enrolled, 23 (3.9%) in the new-onset paroxysmal AF group, 31 (5.3%) in the new-onset persistent AF group and 536 (90.8%) in the sinus rhythm (SR) group. The incidence of the new-onset AF was 9.2% (54/590). A significant difference in age, heart rate, cardiac troponin I ultra, amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, D-dimer, left atrial diameter, left ventricular ejection fraction, pulmonary infection, venous thromboembolism, congestive heart failure, chronic cor pulmonale and ischaemic heart disease was found among the three groups (p<0.05). Risk factors for the new-onset AF were massive PE, ischaemic heart disease and congestive heart failure. The survival rate of the paroxysmal and persistent AF group was significantly lower than that of the SR group within 6 months (60.9% and 51.6% vs 88.8%, p<0.001). New-onset persistent AF (OR 2.73; 95% CI 1.28 to 5.81; p=0.009) was an independent predictor affecting the 6-month survival in aPE patients.ConclusionsMassive PE, ischaemic heart disease and congestive heart failure are high-risk factors which were related to new-onset AF in aPE. New-onset persistent AF was an independent predictor for 6-month all-cause mortality in PE patients.

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Association between serum calcium and prognosis in patients with acute pulmonary embolism and the optimization of pulmonary embolism severity index.

Publications

Association between serum calcium and prognosis in patients with acute pulmonary embolism and the optimization of pulmonary embolism severity index.

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