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An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020.

ABSTRACT: The risk of points-of-no-return, which, once surpassed lock the world into new dynamics, have been discussed for decades. Recently, there have been warnings that some of these tipping points are coming closer and are too dangerous to be disregarded. In this paper we report that in the ESCIMO climate model the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming. In ESCIMO we observe self-sustained melting of the permafrost for hundreds of years, even if global society stops all emissions of man-made GHGs immediately. We encourage other model builders to explore our discovery in their (bigger) models, and report on their findings. The melting (in ESCIMO) is the result of a continuing self-sustained rise in the global temperature. This warming is the combined effect of three physical processes: (1) declining surface albedo (driven by melting of the Arctic ice cover), (2) increasing amounts of water vapour in the atmosphere (driven by higher temperatures), and (3) changes in the concentrations of the GHG in the atmosphere (driven by the absorption of CO₂ in biomass and oceans, and emission of carbon (CH₄ and CO₂) from melting permafrost). This self-sustained, in the sense of no further GHG emissions, melting process (in ESCIMO) is a causally determined, physical process that evolves over time. It starts with the man-made warming up to the 1950s, leading to a rise in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere-further lifting the temperature, causing increasing release of carbon from melting permafrost, and simultaneously a decline in the surface albedo as the ice and snow covers melts. To stop the self-sustained warming in ESCIMO, enormous amounts of CO₂ have to be extracted from the atmosphere.

SUBMITTER: Randers J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7661724 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020.

Randers Jorgen J Goluke Ulrich U

Scientific reports 20201112 1

The risk of points-of-no-return, which, once surpassed lock the world into new dynamics, have been discussed for decades. Recently, there have been warnings that some of these tipping points are coming closer and are too dangerous to be disregarded. In this paper we report that in the ESCIMO climate model the world is already past a point-of-no-return for global warming. In ESCIMO we observe self-sustained melting of the permafrost for hundreds of years, even if global society stops all emission ...[more]

PMID: 33184311

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Project description:This paper analyzes changes in U.S. energy-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) manufacturing over the past decade, through the lens of previously proposed climate policy measures. The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 defined measures and thresholds for EITE eligibility and proposed compensatory allowances designed to reduce negative competitive impacts to domestic industry and to prevent emissions leakage. We undertook a retrospective analysis of the 2009 eligibility criteria, using the same methods with more recent data to examine trends over the 2004-2017 period. We find that energy intensity, emissions intensity, output, and emissions have fluctuated with economic conditions, and defining measures and thresholds that remain informative is challenging. Had ACES been enacted as written and not revised, the number of sectors qualifying for rebates would have decreased from 39 to 26, after adjustment for the changes in North American Industry Classification System definitions. Emissions from the eligible sectors fell 26% across the three periods of analysis, while emissions from manufacturing as a whole fell 5%. We decompose the changes in emissions into scale and intensity measures based on a hybrid measure derived from Grossman and Krueger [(1993). Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement. In The US-Mexico Free Trade Agreement, PM Garber (ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press] and Kaya and Yokoburi [(1997). Environment, Energy, and Economy: Strategies for Sustainability. Tokyo: United Nations University Press]. As an alternative, we perform the same analyses using the EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program data. These data, not available when ACES was written, offer annual greenhouse gas estimates for facilities that emit more than 25,000 tons CO2e annually. Finally, we draw some recommendations for future policy including (1) using measures that make price level adjustments straightforward or unnecessary, (2) keeping EITE policy focused on a small group of industries to minimize sectoral reclassification problems, (3) identifying industries prone to emissions leakage rather than just changes in output and (4) consider spatial heterogeneity of emissions and trade patterns.

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An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020.

Publications

An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020.

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