Dataset Information

Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin.

ABSTRACT: Global warming and land-use change affects runoff in the regional basin. Affected by different factors, such as abundant rainfall and increased impervious surface, the Taihu basin becomes more vulnerable to floods. As a result, a future flood risk analysis is of great significance. This paper simulated the land-use expansion and analyzed the surface change from 2020 to 2050 using the neural network Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) model. Moreover, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was corrected for deviation and used to analyze the climate trend. Second, the verified SWAT model was applied to simulate future runoff and to analyze the future flood risk. The results show that (1) land use is dominated by cultivated land and forests. In the future, the area of cultivated land will decrease and construction land will expand to 1.5 times its present size. (2) The average annual precipitation and temperature will increase by 1.2% and 1.5 degrees from 2020 to 2050, respectively. During the verified period, the NSE and r-square values of the SWAT model are greater than 0.7. (3) Compared with the historical extreme runoff, the extreme runoff in the return period will increase 10%~25% under the eight climate models in 2050. In general, the flood risk will increase further under the climate scenarios.

SUBMITTER: Li L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7663716 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin.

Li Leilei L Yang Jintao J Wu Jin J

Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) 20201026 21

Global warming and land-use change affects runoff in the regional basin. Affected by different factors, such as abundant rainfall and increased impervious surface, the Taihu basin becomes more vulnerable to floods. As a result, a future flood risk analysis is of great significance. This paper simulated the land-use expansion and analyzed the surface change from 2020 to 2050 using the neural network Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) model. Moreover, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downsca ...[more]

PMID: 33114602

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Project description:Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21(st) century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning.

Dataset Information

Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin.

Publications

Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin.

Similar Datasets

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