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Clustering of susceptible individuals within households can drive measles outbreaks: an individual-based model exploration.

ABSTRACT: When estimating important measures such as the herd immunity threshold, and the corresponding efforts required to eliminate measles, it is often assumed that susceptible individuals are uniformly distributed throughout populations. However, unvaccinated individuals may be clustered in a variety of ways, including by geographic location, by age, in schools, or in households. Here, we investigate to which extent different levels of within-household clustering of susceptible individuals may impact the risk and persistence of measles outbreaks. To this end, we apply an individual-based model, Stride, to a population of 600,000 individuals, using data from Flanders, Belgium. We construct a metric to estimate the level of within-household susceptibility clustering in the population. Furthermore, we compare realistic scenarios regarding the distribution of susceptible individuals within households in terms of their impact on epidemiological measures for outbreak risk and persistence. We find that higher levels of within-household clustering of susceptible individuals increase the risk, size and persistence of measles outbreaks. Ignoring within-household clustering thus leads to underestimations of required measles elimination and outbreak mitigation efforts.

SUBMITTER: Kuylen E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7665185 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Clustering of susceptible individuals within households can drive measles outbreaks: an individual-based model exploration.

Kuylen Elise E Willem Lander L Broeckhove Jan J Beutels Philippe P Hens Niel N

Scientific reports 20201112 1

When estimating important measures such as the herd immunity threshold, and the corresponding efforts required to eliminate measles, it is often assumed that susceptible individuals are uniformly distributed throughout populations. However, unvaccinated individuals may be clustered in a variety of ways, including by geographic location, by age, in schools, or in households. Here, we investigate to which extent different levels of within-household clustering of susceptible individuals may impact ...[more]

PMID: 33184409

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Project description:BackgroundThe "fitness" of an infectious pathogen is defined as the ability of the pathogen to survive, reproduce, be transmitted, and cause disease. The fitness of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB) relative to drug-susceptible tuberculosis is cited as one of the most important determinants of MDRTB spread and epidemic size. To estimate the relative fitness of drug-resistant tuberculosis cases, we compared the incidence of tuberculosis disease among the household contacts of MDRTB index patients to that among the contacts of drug-susceptible index patients.Methods and findingsThis 3-y (2010-2013) prospective cohort household follow-up study in South Lima and Callao, Peru, measured the incidence of tuberculosis disease among 1,055 household contacts of 213 MDRTB index cases and 2,362 household contacts of 487 drug-susceptible index cases. A total of 35/1,055 (3.3%) household contacts of 213 MDRTB index cases developed tuberculosis disease, while 114/2,362 (4.8%) household contacts of 487 drug-susceptible index patients developed tuberculosis disease. The total follow-up time for drug-susceptible tuberculosis contacts was 2,620 person-years, while the total follow-up time for MDRTB contacts was 1,425 person-years. Using multivariate Cox regression to adjust for confounding variables including contact HIV status, contact age, socio-economic status, and index case sputum smear grade, the hazard ratio for tuberculosis disease among MDRTB household contacts was found to be half that for drug-susceptible contacts (hazard ratio 0.56, 95% CI 0.34-0.90, p = 0.017). The inference of transmission in this study was limited by the lack of genotyping data for household contacts. Capturing incident disease only among household contacts may also limit the extrapolation of these findings to the community setting.ConclusionsThe low relative fitness of MDRTB estimated by this study improves the chances of controlling drug-resistant tuberculosis. However, fitter multidrug-resistant strains that emerge over time may make this increasingly difficult.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Household contacts of cholera patients have a 100 times higher risk of developing a cholera infection than the general population. To compare the genetic relatedness of clinical and water source Vibrio cholerae isolates from cholera patients' households across three outbreaks, we analyzed these isolates using whole-genome-sequencing (WGS) and multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis (MLVA). RESULTS:The WGS analyses revealed that 80% of households had source water isolates that were more closely related to clinical isolates from the same household than to any other isolates. While in another 20% of households an isolate from a person was more closely related to clinical isolates from another household than to source water isolates from their own household. The mean pairwise differences in single nucleotide-variant (SNV) counts for isolates from the same household were significantly lower than those for different households (2.4 vs. 7.7 p < 0.0001), and isolates from the same outbreak had significantly fewer mean pairwise differences compared to isolates from different outbreaks (mean: 6.2 vs. 8.0, p < 0.0001). Based on MLVA in outbreak 1, we observed that the majority of households had clinical isolates with MLVA genotypes related to other clinical isolates and unrelated to water source isolates from the same household. While in outbreak 3, there were different MLVA genotypes between households, however within the majority of households, the clinical and water source isolates had the same MLVA genotypes. The beginning of outbreak 2 resembled outbreak 1 and the latter part resembled outbreak 3. We validated our use of MLVA by comparing it to WGS. Isolates with the identical MLVA genotype had significantly fewer mean pairwise SNV differences than those isolates with different MLVA genotypes (mean: 4.8 vs. 7.7, p < 0.0001). Furthermore, consistent with WGS results, the number of pairwise differences in the five MLVA loci for isolates within the same household was significantly lower than isolates from different households (mean: 1.6 vs. 3.0, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION:These results suggest that transmission patterns for cholera are a combination of person-to-person and water-to-person cholera transmission with the proportions of the two modes varying within and between outbreaks.

Project description:ImportanceVaccine exemptions, which allow unvaccinated children to attend school, have increased by a factor of 28 since 2003 in Texas. Geographic clustering of unvaccinated children facilitates the spread of measles introductions, but the potential size of outbreaks is unclear.ObjectiveTo forecast the range of measles outbreak sizes in each metropolitan area of Texas at 2018 and future reduced school vaccination rates.Design, setting, and participantsAn agent-based decision analytical model using a synthetic population of Texas, derived from the 2010 US Census, was used to simulate measles transmission in the Texas population. Real schools were represented in the simulations, and the 2018 vaccination rate of each real school was applied to a simulated hypothetical equivalent. Single cases of measles were introduced, daily activities and interactions were modeled for each population member, and the number of infections over the course of 9 months was counted for 1000 simulated runs in each Texas metropolitan area.InterventionsTo determine the outcomes of further decreases in vaccination coverage, additional simulations were performed with vaccination rates reduced by 1% to 10% in schools with populations that are currently undervaccinated.Main outcomes and measuresExpected distributions of outbreak sizes in each metropolitan area of Texas at 2018 and reduced vaccination rates.ResultsAt 2018 vaccination rates, the median number of cases in large metropolitan areas was typically small, ranging from 1 to 3 cases, which is consistent with outbreaks in Texas 2006 to 2017. However, the upper limit of the distribution of plausible outbreaks (the 95th percentile, associated with 1 in 20 measles introductions) exceeded 400 cases in both the Austin and Dallas metropolitan areas, similar to the largest US outbreaks since measles was eliminated in 2000. Decreases in vaccination rates in schools with undervaccinated populations in 2018 were associated with exponential increases in the potential size of outbreaks: a 5% decrease in vaccination rate was associated with a 40% to 4000% increase in potential outbreak size, depending on the metropolitan area. A mean (SD) of 64% (11%) of cases occurred in students for whom a vaccine had been refused, but a mean (SD) of 36% (11%) occurred in others (ie, bystanders).Conclusions and relevanceThis study suggests that vaccination rates in some Texas schools are currently low enough to allow large measles outbreaks. Further decreases are associated with dramatic increases in the probability of large outbreaks. Limiting vaccine exemptions could be associated with a decrease in the risk of large measles outbreaks.

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Clustering of susceptible individuals within households can drive measles outbreaks: an individual-based model exploration.

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Clustering of susceptible individuals within households can drive measles outbreaks: an individual-based model exploration.

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