Dataset Information

CoVA: An Acuity Score for Outpatient Screening that Predicts Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prognosis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

We sought to develop an automatable score to predict hospitalization, critical illness, or death for patients at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presenting for urgent care.

Methods

We developed the COVID-19 Acuity Score (CoVA) based on a single-center study of adult outpatients seen in respiratory illness clinics or the emergency department. Data were extracted from the Partners Enterprise Data Warehouse, and split into development (n = 9381, 7 March-2 May) and prospective (n = 2205, 3-14 May) cohorts. Outcomes were hospitalization, critical illness (intensive care unit or ventilation), or death within 7 days. Calibration was assessed using the expected-to-observed event ratio (E/O). Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC).

Results

In the prospective cohort, 26.1%, 6.3%, and 0.5% of patients experienced hospitalization, critical illness, or death, respectively. CoVA showed excellent performance in prospective validation for hospitalization (expected-to-observed ratio [E/O]: 1.01; AUC: 0.76), for critical illness (E/O: 1.03; AUC: 0.79), and for death (E/O: 1.63; AUC: 0.93). Among 30 predictors, the top 5 were age, diastolic blood pressure, blood oxygen saturation, COVID-19 testing status, and respiratory rate.

Conclusions

CoVA is a prospectively validated automatable score for the outpatient setting to predict adverse events related to COVID-19 infection.

SUBMITTER: Sun H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7665643 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectivesTriaging patients at admission to determine subsequent deterioration risk can be difficult. This is especially true of coronavirus disease 2019 patients, some of whom experience significant physiologic deterioration due to dysregulated immune response following admission. A well-established acuity measure, the Rothman Index, is evaluated for stratification of patients at admission into high or low risk of subsequent deterioration.DesignMulticenter retrospective study.SettingOne academic medical center in Connecticut, and three community hospitals in Connecticut and Maryland.PatientsThree thousand four hundred ninety-nine coronavirus disease 2019 and 14,658 noncoronavirus disease 2019 adult patients admitted to a medical service between January 1, 2020, and September 15, 2020.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsPerformance of the Rothman Index at admission to predict in-hospital mortality or ICU utilization for both general medical and coronavirus disease 2019 populations was evaluated using the area under the curve. Precision and recall for mortality prediction were calculated, high- and low-risk thresholds were determined, and patients meeting threshold criteria were characterized. The Rothman Index at admission has good to excellent discriminatory performance for in-hospital mortality in the coronavirus disease 2019 (area under the curve, 0.81-0.84) and noncoronavirus disease 2019 (area under the curve, 0.90-0.92) populations. We show that for a given admission acuity, the risk of deterioration for coronavirus disease 2019 patients is significantly higher than for noncoronavirus disease 2019 patients. At admission, Rothman Index-based thresholds segregate the majority of patients into either high- or low-risk groups; high-risk groups have mortality rates of 34-45% (coronavirus disease 2019) and 17-25% (noncoronavirus disease 2019), whereas low-risk groups have mortality rates of 2-5% (coronavirus disease 2019) and 0.2-0.4% (noncoronavirus disease 2019). Similarly large differences in ICU utilization are also found.ConclusionsAcuity level at admission may support rapid and effective risk triage. Notably, in-hospital mortality risk associated with a given acuity at admission is significantly higher for coronavirus disease 2019 patients than for noncoronavirus disease 2019 patients. This insight may help physicians more effectively triage coronavirus disease 2019 patients, guiding level of care decisions and resource allocation.

Project description:BackgroundReports of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection have focused on pregnant women hospitalized due to moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) or asymptomatic women diagnosed through universal screening at the time of obstetric admission. Many pregnant women who have symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection may not meet criteria for hospitalization; however, whether and how these women can be managed safely in outpatient setting is not well described.MethodsWe sought to describe the time to symptom and viral clearance and to identify predictors of hospitalization to better understand the safety of monitoring pregnant patients with symptomatic COVID-19 in the outpatient setting. We performed a retrospective cohort study of pregnant patients with symptomatic, confirmed COVID-19 illness at a large, academic medical center. Patients had systematic telehealth follow up by a clinician team to assess for symptoms, provide virtual prenatal care, and arrange in-person visits when appropriate in a dedicated outpatient center. Data were collected via chart abstraction.ResultsOf 180 pregnant patients presenting with symptoms and undergoing reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, 67 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection were identified during the study period. Nineteen (28%) required acute care given worsening of COVID-19 symptoms, and 95% of these were directed to this acute care setting due to symptom severity telehealth evaluation. Nine women (13%) were admitted to the hospital given worsening symptoms, 3 required intensive care unit care, 2 required ventilatory support, and 2 required delivery. Women with the presenting symptoms of fever, cough, shortness of breath, chest pain, or nausea and vomiting were more likely to require admission. The median duration from initial positive test to RT-PCR viral clearance was 26 days. Disease progression, time to viral clearance, and duration of symptoms did not vary significantly by trimester of infection.ConclusionsManagement of the majority of pregnant women with symptomatic COVID-19 illness can be accomplished in the outpatient setting with intensive and protocol-driven monitoring for symptom progression.