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Development and validation of a clinical score to estimate progression to severe or critical state in COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalized patients.

ABSTRACT: The prognosis of a patient with COVID-19 pneumonia is uncertain. Our objective was to establish a predictive model of disease progression to facilitate early decision-making. A retrospective study was performed of patients admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia, classified as severe (admission to the intensive care unit, mechanic invasive ventilation, or death) or non-severe. A predictive model based on clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters was built. The probability of progression to severe disease was estimated by logistic regression analysis. Calibration and discrimination (receiver operating characteristics curves and AUC) were assessed to determine model performance. During the study period 1152 patients presented with SARS-CoV-2 infection, of whom 229 (19.9%) were admitted for pneumonia. During hospitalization, 51 (22.3%) progressed to severe disease, of whom 26 required ICU care (11.4); 17 (7.4%) underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 32 (14%) died of any cause. Five predictors determined within 24 h of admission were identified: Diabetes, Age, Lymphocyte count, SaO2, and pH (DALSH score). The prediction model showed a good clinical performance, including discrimination (AUC 0.87 CI 0.81, 0.92) and calibration (Brier score?=?0.11). In total, 0%, 12%, and 50% of patients with severity risk scores???5%, 6-25%, and?>?25% exhibited disease progression, respectively. A risk score based on five factors predicts disease progression and facilitates early decision-making according to prognosis.

SUBMITTER: Gude F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7666132 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of a clinical score to estimate progression to severe or critical state in COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalized patients.

Gude Francisco F Riveiro Vanessa V Rodríguez-Núñez Nuria N Ricoy Jorge J Lado-Baleato Óscar Ó Lourido Tamara T Rábade Carlos C Lama Adriana A Casal Ana A Abelleira-París Romina R Ferreiro Lucía L Suárez-Antelo Juan J Toubes María E ME Pou Cristina C Taboada-Muñiz Manuel M Calle-Velles Felipe F Mayán-Conesa Plácido P Del Molino María L Pérez MLP Galbán-Rodríguez Cristóbal C Álvarez-Escudero Julián J Beceiro-Abad Carmen C Molinos-Castro Sonia S Agra-Vázquez Néstor N Pazo-Núñez María M Páez-Guillán Emilio E Varela-García Pablo P Martínez-Rey Carmen C Pernas-Pardavila Hadrián H Domínguez-Santalla María J MJ Vidal-Vázquez Martín M Marques-Afonso Ana T AT González-Quintela Arturo A González-Juanatey José R JR Pose Antonio A Valdés Luis L

Scientific reports 20201113 1

The prognosis of a patient with COVID-19 pneumonia is uncertain. Our objective was to establish a predictive model of disease progression to facilitate early decision-making. A retrospective study was performed of patients admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia, classified as severe (admission to the intensive care unit, mechanic invasive ventilation, or death) or non-severe. A predictive model based on clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters was built. The probability of progression to seve ...[more]

PMID: 33188225

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Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is associated with immune dysregulation and hyperinflammation, including elevated interleukin-6 levels. The use of tocilizumab, a monoclonal antibody against the interleukin-6 receptor, has resulted in better outcomes in patients with severe Covid-19 pneumonia in case reports and retrospective observational cohort studies. Data are needed from randomized, placebo-controlled trials.MethodsIn this phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned patients who were hospitalized with severe Covid-19 pneumonia in a 2:1 ratio receive a single intravenous infusion of tocilizumab (at a dose of 8 mg per kilogram of body weight) or placebo. Approximately one quarter of the participants received a second dose of tocilizumab or placebo 8 to 24 hours after the first dose. The primary outcome was clinical status at day 28 on an ordinal scale ranging from 1 (discharged or ready for discharge) to 7 (death) in the modified intention-to-treat population, which included all the patients who had received at least one dose of tocilizumab or placebo.ResultsOf the 452 patients who underwent randomization, 438 (294 in the tocilizumab group and 144 in the placebo group) were included in the primary and secondary analyses. The median value for clinical status on the ordinal scale at day 28 was 1.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0 to 1.0) in the tocilizumab group and 2.0 (non-ICU hospitalization without supplemental oxygen) (95% CI, 1.0 to 4.0) in the placebo group (between-group difference, -1.0; 95% CI, -2.5 to 0; P = 0.31 by the van Elteren test). In the safety population, serious adverse events occurred in 103 of 295 patients (34.9%) in the tocilizumab group and in 55 of 143 patients (38.5%) in the placebo group. Mortality at day 28 was 19.7% in the tocilizumab group and 19.4% in the placebo group (weighted difference, 0.3 percentage points; 95% CI, -7.6 to 8.2; nominal P = 0.94).ConclusionsIn this randomized trial involving hospitalized patients with severe Covid-19 pneumonia, the use of tocilizumab did not result in significantly better clinical status or lower mortality than placebo at 28 days. (Funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche and the Department of Health and Human Services; COVACTA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04320615.).

Project description:BackgroundHigh levels of serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) correlate with disease severity in COVID-19. We hypothesized that tocilizumab (a recombinant humanized anti-IL-6 receptor) could improve outcomes in selected patients with severe worsening COVID-19 pneumonia and high inflammatory parameters.MethodsThe TOCICOVID study included a prospective cohort of patients aged 16-80 years with severe (requiring > 6 L/min of oxygen therapy to obtain Sp02 > 94%) rapidly deteriorating (increase by ≥ 3 L/min of oxygen flow within the previous 12 h) COVID-19 pneumonia with ≥ 5 days of symptoms and C-reactive protein levels > 40 mg/L. They entered a compassionate use program of treatment with intravenous tocilizumab (8 mg/kg with a maximum of 800 mg per infusion; and if needed a second infusion 24 to 72 h later). A control group was retrospectively selected with the same inclusion criteria. Outcomes were assessed at D28 using inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) methodology.ResultsAmong the 96 patients included (81% male, mean (SD) age: 60 (12.5) years), underlying conditions, baseline disease severity, and concomitant medications were broadly similar between the tocilizumab (n = 49) and the control (n = 47) groups. In the IPTW analysis, treatment with tocilizumab was associated with a reduced need for overall ventilatory support (49 vs. 89%, wHR: 0.39 [0.25-0.56]; p < 0.001). Albeit lacking statistical significance, there was a substantial trend towards a reduction of mechanical ventilation (31% vs. 45%; wHR: 0.58 [0.36-0.94]; p = 0.026). However, tocilizumab did not improve overall survival (wHR = 0.68 [0.31-1.748], p = 0.338). Among the 85 (89%) patients still alive at D28, patients treated with tocilizumab had a higher rate of oxygen withdrawal (82% vs. 73.5%, wHR = 1.66 [1.17-2.37], p = 0.005), with a shorter delay before being weaned of oxygen therapy (mean 11 vs. 16 days; p < 0.001). At D28, the rate of patients discharged from hospital was higher in the tocilizumab group (70% vs. 40%, wHR = 1.82 [1.22-2.75]; p = 0.003). The levels of CRP and fibrinogen post therapy (p < 0.001 for both variables) were significantly lower in the tocilizumab group (interaction test, mixed model). Rates of neutropenia (35% vs. 0%; p < 0.001) were higher in the tocilizumab group, yet rates of infections (22% vs. 38%, p = 0.089) including ventilator-acquired pneumonia (8% vs. 26%, p = 0.022) were higher in the control group.ConclusionThese data could be helpful for the design of future trials aiming to counter COVID-19-induced inflammation, especially before patients require admission to the intensive care unit.

Project description:ImportanceEarly identification of patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who may develop critical illness is of great importance and may aid in delivering proper treatment and optimizing use of resources.ObjectiveTo develop and validate a clinical score at hospital admission for predicting which patients with COVID-19 will develop critical illness based on a nationwide cohort in China.Design, setting, and participantsCollaborating with the National Health Commission of China, we established a retrospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 from 575 hospitals in 31 provincial administrative regions as of January 31, 2020. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and imaging variables ascertained at hospital admission were screened using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and logistic regression to construct a predictive risk score (COVID-GRAM). The score provides an estimate of the risk that a hospitalized patient with COVID-19 will develop critical illness. Accuracy of the score was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Data from 4 additional cohorts in China hospitalized with COVID-19 were used to validate the score. Data were analyzed between February 20, 2020 and March 17, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresAmong patients with COVID-19 admitted to the hospital, critical illness was defined as the composite measure of admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death.ResultsThe development cohort included 1590 patients. the mean (SD) age of patients in the cohort was 48.9 (15.7) years; 904 (57.3%) were men. The validation cohort included 710 patients with a mean (SD) age of 48.2 (15.2) years, and 382 (53.8%) were men and 172 (24.2%). From 72 potential predictors, 10 variables were independent predictive factors and were included in the risk score: chest radiographic abnormality (OR, 3.39; 95% CI, 2.14-5.38), age (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.05), hemoptysis (OR, 4.53; 95% CI, 1.36-15.15), dyspnea (OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.18-3.01), unconsciousness (OR, 4.71; 95% CI, 1.39-15.98), number of comorbidities (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.27-2.00), cancer history (OR, 4.07; 95% CI, 1.23-13.43), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.10), lactate dehydrogenase (OR, 1.002; 95% CI, 1.001-1.004) and direct bilirubin (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.24). The mean AUC in the development cohort was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.85-0.91) and the AUC in the validation cohort was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.84-0.93). The score has been translated into an online risk calculator that is freely available to the public (http://118.126.104.170/).Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, a risk score based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients at the time of admission to the hospital was developed that may help predict a patient's risk of developing critical illness.

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Development and validation of a clinical score to estimate progression to severe or critical state in COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalized patients.

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Development and validation of a clinical score to estimate progression to severe or critical state in COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalized patients.

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