Dataset Information

Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network.

ABSTRACT: Wheat is one of the three basic cereals providing the necessary calorific intake for most of the world's population. For this reason, its trade is critical to many countries in order to fulfil their internal demand and strategic stocks. In this paper, we use complex network analysis tools to study the international wheat trade network and its evolving characteristics for the period 2009-2013. To understand the vulnerability of each country's dependence on the imports of this crop we have performed different analyses, simulating shocks of varying intensities for the main wheat producers, and observed the population affected by the production drop. As a result, we conclude that globally the network is slightly more resilient than four years previously, although at the same time some developing countries have slipped into a vulnerable situation. We have also analysed the effects of a global shock affecting all major producers, assessing its impact on every country. Some comments on the COVID-19 outbreak and the political decisions taken by governments following the pandemic declaration are included, observing that given their capital-intensive characteristics, no negative effects should currently be expected in the wheat market.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-020-01117-9.

SUBMITTER: Gutierrez-Moya E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7668007 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network.

Gutiérrez-Moya E E Adenso-Díaz B B Lozano S S

Food security 20201116 1

Wheat is one of the three basic cereals providing the necessary calorific intake for most of the world's population. For this reason, its trade is critical to many countries in order to fulfil their internal demand and strategic stocks. In this paper, we use complex network analysis tools to study the international wheat trade network and its evolving characteristics for the period 2009-2013. To understand the vulnerability of each country's dependence on the imports of this crop we have perform ...[more]

PMID: 33224317

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Project description:In our study, we introduce indicators that quantify the influence of each country in complex trade scenarios involving the exchange of raw materials, intermediate goods, and final products across multiple countries. We systematically employ an agent-based model to simulate the propagation of failures from one node to the entire network. This approach allows for the assessment of the impact of each country and the identification of patterns of interaction in the multi-step trade network. Unlike conventional analyses of trade networks, which depict straightforward single-step import/export transactions, our approach captures the intricate realities of processes like raw material procurement, production, and sales in numerous countries from a macroscopic perspective. The findings of our analysis of trade data spanning from 1990 to 2022 reveal several key insights. Firstly, sensitivity to changes in trade volume leading to global failures within interconnected networks has intensified over time. The potential of failure propagation across countries has increased over time, as has the interconnectedness of countries in the global trade landscape. Secondly, despite the increased sensitivity to changes in global trade volume, many countries have become less vulnerable to the influence of others within their multi-step trade networks. This trend aligns with deglobalization, which is evidenced by events such as Brexit and the surge in protectionist measures; these changes indicate a shift in the balance of influence within global trade networks. Thirdly, the results of our analysis of the relationship between load changes and global failures from a regional perspective reveal an intriguing phenomenon: despite limited direct trade connectivity, the interaction between the Latin American and Sub-Saharan African regions is considerable. This suggests the existence of hidden connections between intermediary countries, such that one region's actions can alter the load sensitivity of another, impacting them in unforeseen ways. Furthermore, intra-regional interactions are diminishing in East Asia, while Europe is experiencing a gradual increase in interactions. These trends reflect evolving regional influence, the dynamics of geographic proximity, and the results of economic integration efforts. Additionally, even though the observed period was not long enough to confirm a long-term trend, the previous trend direction was affirmed to persist despite a temporary decrease in trading and reduced sensitivity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our study highlights the complexity of global trade dynamics and the need to consider multi-step trade networks and their potential cascading effects when analyzing trade patterns and vulnerabilities.

Dataset Information

Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network.

Supplementary information

Publications

Analysis and vulnerability of the international wheat trade network.

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