Dataset Information

Nonlinear landscape and cultural response to sea-level rise.

ABSTRACT: Rising sea levels have been associated with human migration and behavioral shifts throughout prehistory, often with an emphasis on landscape submergence and consequent societal collapse. However, the assumption that future sea-level rise will drive similar adaptive responses is overly simplistic. While the change from land to sea represents a dramatic and permanent shift for preexisting human populations, the process of change is driven by a complex set of physical and cultural processes with long transitional phases of landscape and socioeconomic change. Here, we use reconstructions of prehistoric sea-level rise, paleogeographies, terrestrial landscape change, and human population dynamics to show how the gradual inundation of an island archipelago resulted in decidedly nonlinear landscape and cultural responses to rising sea levels. Interpretation of past and future responses to sea-level change requires a better understanding of local physical and societal contexts to assess plausible human response patterns in the future.

SUBMITTER: Barnett RL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7673675 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Nonlinear landscape and cultural response to sea-level rise.

Barnett Robert L RL Charman Dan J DJ Johns Charles C Ward Sophie L SL Bevan Andrew A Bradley Sarah L SL Camidge Kevin K Fyfe Ralph M RM Gehrels W Roland WR Gehrels Maria J MJ Hatton Jackie J Khan Nicole S NS Marshall Peter P Maezumi S Yoshi SY Mills Steve S Mulville Jacqui J Perez Marta M Roberts Helen M HM Scourse James D JD Shepherd Francis F Stevens Todd T

Science advances 20201104 45

Rising sea levels have been associated with human migration and behavioral shifts throughout prehistory, often with an emphasis on landscape submergence and consequent societal collapse. However, the assumption that future sea-level rise will drive similar adaptive responses is overly simplistic. While the change from land to sea represents a dramatic and permanent shift for preexisting human populations, the process of change is driven by a complex set of physical and cultural processes with lo ...[more]

PMID: 33148641

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Project description:Mollusks are an important component of the mangrove ecosystem, and the vertical distributions of molluscan species in this ecosystem are primarily dictated by tidal inundation. Thus, sea level rise (SLR) may have profound effects on mangrove mollusk communities. Here, we used dynamic empirical models, based on measurements of surface elevation change, sediment accretion, and molluscan zonation patterns, to predict changes in molluscan spatial distributions in response to different sea level rise rates in the mangrove forests of Zhenzhu Bay (Guangxi, China). The change in surface elevation was 4.76-9.61 mm year-1 during the study period (2016-2020), and the magnitude of surface-elevation change decreased exponentially as original surface elevation increased. Based on our model results, we predicted that mangrove mollusks might successfully adapt to a low rate of SLR (2.00-4.57 mm year-1) by 2100, with mollusks moving seaward and those in the lower intertidal zones expanding into newly available zones. However, as SLR rate increased (4.57-8.14 mm year-1), our models predicted that surface elevations would decrease beginning in the high intertidal zones and gradually spread to the low intertidal zones. Finally, at high rates of SLR (8.14-16.00 mm year-1), surface elevations were predicted to decrease across the elevation gradient, with mollusks moving landward and species in higher intertidal zones blocked by landward barriers. Tidal inundation and the consequent increases in interspecific competition and predation pressure were predicted to threaten the survival of many molluscan groups in higher intertidal zones, especially arboreal and infaunal mollusks at the landward edge of the mangroves, resulting in a substantial reduction in the abundance of original species on the landward edge. Thus, future efforts to conserve mangrove floral and faunal diversity should prioritize species restricted to landward mangrove areas and protect potential species habitats.

Dataset Information

Nonlinear landscape and cultural response to sea-level rise.

Publications

Nonlinear landscape and cultural response to sea-level rise.

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