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Predictors of Mortality in Elderly and Very Elderly Emergency Patients with Sepsis: A Retrospective Study.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:Elderly patients are at increased risk of developing sepsis and its adverse outcomes. Diagnosing and prognosing sepsis is particularly challenging in older patients, especially early at emergency department (ED) arrival. We aimed to study and compare the characteristics of elderly and very elderly ED patients with sepsis and determine baseline factors associated with in-hospital mortality. We also compared prognostic accuracy of the criteria for systemic inflammatory response syndrome, quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), and the National Early Warning Score in predicting mortality. METHODS:We conducted a retrospective study at the ED of Siriraj Hospital Mahidol University in Bangkok, Thailand. Patients over 18 years old who were diagnosed and treated for sepsis in the ED between August 2018-July 2019 were included. We categorized patients into non-elderly (aged <65 years), elderly (aged 65-79 years), and the very elderly (aged >80 years) groups. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Baseline demographics, comorbidities, source and etiology of sepsis, including physiologic variables, were compared and analyzed to identify predictors of mortality. We calculated and compared the area under the receiver operator characteristics curves (AUROC) of early warning scores. RESULTS:Of 1616 ED patients with sepsis, 668 (41.3%) were very elderly, 512 (31.7%) were elderly, and 436 (27.0%) were non-elderly. The mortality rate was highest in the very elderly, followed by the elderly and the non-elderly groups (32.3%, 25.8%, and 24.8%, respectively). Factors associated with mortality in the very elderly included the following: age; do-not-resuscitate (DNR) status; history of recent admission <3 months; respiratory tract infection; systolic blood pressure <100 millimeters mercury (SBP<100); oxygen saturation; and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score. Factors associated with mortality in the elderly were DNR status, body temperature, and GCS score. qSOFA had the highest AUROC in predicting in-hospital mortality in both very elderly and elderly patients (AUROC 0.60 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.55-0.65] and 0.55 [95% CI, 0.49-0.61, respectively]). CONCLUSION:The mortality rate in the very elderly was higher than in the younger populations. Age, DNR status, recent admission, respiratory tract infection, SBP<100, oxygen saturation. and GCS score independently predicted hospital mortality in very elderly patients. The qSOFA score had better but only moderate accuracy in predicting mortality in elderly and very elderly sepsis patients.

SUBMITTER: Boonmee P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7673873 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of Mortality in Elderly and Very Elderly Emergency Patients with Sepsis: A Retrospective Study.

Boonmee Phetsinee P Ruangsomboon Onlak O Limsuwat Chok C Chakorn Tipa T

The western journal of emergency medicine 20201006 6

<h4>Introduction</h4>Elderly patients are at increased risk of developing sepsis and its adverse outcomes. Diagnosing and prognosing sepsis is particularly challenging in older patients, especially early at emergency department (ED) arrival. We aimed to study and compare the characteristics of elderly and very elderly ED patients with sepsis and determine baseline factors associated with in-hospital mortality. We also compared prognostic accuracy of the criteria for systemic inflammatory respons ...[more]

PMID: 33207168

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Project description:PURPOSE:Sepsis is a common acute life-threatening condition that emergency physicians routinely face. Diagnostic options within the Emergency Department (ED) are limited due to lack of infrastructure, consequently limiting the use of invasive hemodynamic monitoring or imaging tests. The mortality rate due to sepsis can be assessed via multiple scoring systems, for example, mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) score and sepsis patient evaluation in the emergency department (SPEED) score, both of which quantify the variation of mortality rates according to clinical findings, laboratory data, or therapeutic interventions. This study aims to improve the management processes of sepsis patients by comparing SPEED score and MEDS score for predicting the 28-day mortality in cases of emergency sepsis. METHODS:The study is a cross-sectional, prospective study including 61 sepsis patients in ED in Suez Canal University Hospital, Egypt, from August 2017 to June 2018. Patients were selected by two steps: (1) suspected septic patients presenting with at least one of the following abnormal clinical findings: (a) body temperature higher than 38 °C or lower than 36 °C, (b) heart rate higher than 90 beats/min, (c) hyperventilation evidenced by respiratory rate higher than 20 breaths/min or PaCO2 lower than 32 mmHg, and (d) white blood cell count higher than 12,000/?L or lower than 4000/?L; (2) confirmed septic patients with at least a 2-point increase from the baseline total sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score following infection. Other inclusion criteria included adult patients with an age ?18 years regardless of gender and those who had either systemic inflammatory response syndrome or suspected/confirmed infection. Patients were shortly follow-up for the 28-day mortality. Each patient was subject to SPEED score and MEDS score and then the results were compared to detect which of them was more effective in predicting outcome. The receiver operating characteristic curves were also done for MEDS and SPEED scores. RESULTS:Among the 61 patients, 41 died with the mortality rate of 67.2%. The mortality rate increased with a higher SPEED and MEDS scores. Both SPEED and MEDS scores revealed significant difference between the survivors and nonsurvivors (p = 0.004 and p < 0.001, respectively), indicating that both the two systems are effective in predicting the 28-day mortality of sepsis patients. Thereafter, the receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted, which showed that SPEED was better than the MEDS score when applied to the complete study population with an area under the curve being 0.87 (0.788-0.963) as compared with 0.75 (0.634-0.876) for MEDS. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the best fitting predictor of 28-day mortality for sepsis patients was the SPEED scoring system. For every one unit increase in SPEED score, the odds of 28-day mortality increased by 37%. CONCLUSION:SPEED score is more useful and accurate than MEDS score in predicting the 28-day mortality among sepsis patients. Therefore SPEED rather than MEDS should be more widely used in the ED for sepsis patients.

Project description:Background Estimating the risk of intubation and mortality among COVID-19 patients can help clinicians triage these patients and allocate resources more efficiently. Thus, here we sought to identify the risk factors associated with intubation and intra-hospital mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients hospitalized due to hypoxemic acute respiratory failure (ARF). Results We included retrospectively a total of 187 patients admitted to the subintensive and intensive care units of the University Hospital “Maggiore della Carità” of Novara between March 1st and April 30th, 2020. Based on these patients’ demographic characteristics, early clinical and laboratory variables, and quantitative chest computerized tomography (CT) findings, we developed two random forest (RF) models able to predict intubation and intra-hospital mortality. Variables independently associated with intubation were C-reactive protein (p < 0.001), lactate dehydrogenase level (p = 0.018) and white blood cell count (p = 0.026), while variables independently associated with mortality were age (p < 0.001), other cardiovascular diseases (p = 0.029), C-reactive protein (p = 0.002), lactate dehydrogenase level (p = 0.018), and invasive mechanical ventilation (p = 0.001). On quantitative chest CT analysis, ground glass opacity, consolidation, and fibrosis resulted significantly associated with patient intubation and mortality. The major predictors for both models were the ratio between partial pressure of arterial oxygen and fraction of inspired oxygen, age, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, glycemia, CT quantitative parameters, lymphocyte count, and symptom onset. Conclusions Altogether, our findings confirm previously reported demographic, clinical, hemato-chemical, and radiologic predictors of adverse outcome among COVID-19-associated hypoxemic ARF patients. The two newly developed RF models herein described show an overall good level of accuracy in predicting intra-hospital mortality and intubation in our study population. Thus, their future development and implementation may help not only identify patients at higher risk of deterioration more effectively but also rebalance the disproportion between resources and demand. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s44158-021-00016-5.

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Predictors of Mortality in Elderly and Very Elderly Emergency Patients with Sepsis: A Retrospective Study.

Publications

Predictors of Mortality in Elderly and Very Elderly Emergency Patients with Sepsis: A Retrospective Study.

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