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Dynamic quarantine: a comparative analysis of the Chilean public health response to COVID-19.

ABSTRACT: In this study, an analysis of the Chilean public health response to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 is presented. The analysis is based on the daily transmission rate (DTR). The Chilean response has been based on dynamic quarantines, which are established, lifted or prolonged based on the percentage of infected individuals in the fundamental administrative sections, called communes. This analysis is performed at a national level, at the level of the Metropolitan Region (MR) and at the commune level in the MR according to whether the commune did or did not enter quarantine between late March and mid-May of 2020. The analysis shows a certain degree of efficacy in controlling the pandemic using the dynamic quarantine strategy. However, it also shows that apparent control has only been partially achieved to date. With this policy, the control of the DTR partially falls to 4%, where it settles, and the MR is the primary vector of infection at the country level. For this reason, we can conclude that the MR has not managed to control the disease, with variable results within its own territory.

SUBMITTER: Grebe G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7674806 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Dynamic quarantine: a comparative analysis of the Chilean public health response to COVID-19.

Grebe Gonzalo G Vélez Javier A JA Tiutiunnyk Anton A Aragón-Caqueo Diego D Fernández-Salinas Javier J Navarrete Mónica M Laroze David D

Epidemiology and infection 20201104

In this study, an analysis of the Chilean public health response to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 is presented. The analysis is based on the daily transmission rate (DTR). The Chilean response has been based on dynamic quarantines, which are established, lifted or prolonged based on the percentage of infected individuals in the fundamental administrative sections, called communes. This analysis is performed at a national level, at the level of the Metropolitan Region (MR) and at the commune le ...[more]

PMID: 33143799

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Project description:BackgroundThe emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has led to a global pandemic. The United States has been severely affected, accounting for the most COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide. Without a coordinated national public health plan informed by surveillance with actionable metrics, the United States has been ineffective at preventing and mitigating the escalating COVID-19 pandemic. Existing surveillance has incomplete ascertainment and is limited by the use of standard surveillance metrics. Although many COVID-19 data sources track infection rates, informing prevention requires capturing the relevant dynamics of the pandemic.ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to develop dynamic metrics for public health surveillance that can inform worldwide COVID-19 prevention efforts. Advanced surveillance techniques are essential to inform public health decision making and to identify where and when corrective action is required to prevent outbreaks.MethodsUsing a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted COVID-19 data from global public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure daily case numbers for our use case in 50 US states and the District of Colombia as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R.ResultsExamination of the United States and state data demonstrated that most US states are experiencing outbreaks as measured by these new metrics of speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence. Larger US states have high COVID-19 caseloads as a function of population size, density, and deficits in adherence to public health guidelines early in the epidemic, and other states have alarming rates of speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence in novel infections. North and South Dakota have had the highest rates of COVID-19 transmission combined with positive acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence. Wisconsin and Illinois also have alarming indicators and already lead the nation in daily new COVID-19 infections. As the United States enters its third wave of COVID-19, all 50 states and the District of Colombia have positive rates of speed between 7.58 (Hawaii) and 175.01 (North Dakota), and persistence, ranging from 4.44 (Vermont) to 195.35 (North Dakota) new infections per 100,000 people.ConclusionsStandard surveillance techniques such as daily and cumulative infections and deaths are helpful but only provide a static view of what has already occurred in the pandemic and are less helpful in prevention. Public health policy that is informed by dynamic surveillance can shift the country from reacting to COVID-19 transmissions to being proactive and taking corrective action when indicators of speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence remain positive week over week. Implicit within our dynamic surveillance is an early warning system that indicates when there is problematic growth in COVID-19 transmissions as well as signals when growth will become explosive without action. A public health approach that focuses on prevention can prevent major outbreaks in addition to endorsing effective public health policies. Moreover, subnational analyses on the dynamics of the pandemic allow us to zero in on where transmissions are increasing, meaning corrective action can be applied with precision in problematic areas. Dynamic public health surveillance can inform specific geographies where quarantines are necessary while preserving the economy in other US areas.

Project description:BackgroundEffective strategies of prevention have been and can aid in reducing and overcoming contagious diseases including COVID-19, still there is dearth of knowledge regarding general public awareness and perception. The current study aims to determine the existing knowledge and perception of people living in Karachi about isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment.MethodsThis cross-sectional online survey was conducted during the months of March and April 2020. The study included men and women of age 18 years and above quarantined during COVID-19. Convenience sampling followed by snowball sampling technique was used. An online structured questionnaire was developed using Google Form. It included questions on socio demographic information, public knowledge and perception about isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment. Chi-square test was used for categorical variables and p value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.ResultsA total of 548 participants were involved in this survey, 34% (n = 184) males with a mean age of 28 ± 10 years ranging from 18 to 75 years. The major source of hearing about COVID-19 was social media (72%, n = 393). Overall knowledge scores revealed that 27% (n = 146) participants had excellent knowledge about symptoms and prevention of the COVID-19. Excellent knowledge of quarantining, isolation and community containment and social distancing was 38% among participants. Participants who had good and excellent knowledge were more likely to have positive perception of isolation (p-value < 0.001). Majority participants (89%, n = 487) felt isolation may or may not be against human rights and this perception was found significantly associated with moderate to excellent knowledge about community mitigation measures (p-value = 0.009).ConclusionThis study concludes that optimal public knowledge and perception related to certain aspects of isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment exists however knowledge gaps and misperceptions prevail that need to be addressed.

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Dynamic quarantine: a comparative analysis of the Chilean public health response to COVID-19.

Publications

Dynamic quarantine: a comparative analysis of the Chilean public health response to COVID-19.

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