Dataset Information

Machine learning to predict early TNF inhibitor users in patients with ankylosing spondylitis.

ABSTRACT: We aim to generate an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict early TNF inhibitor users in patients with ankylosing spondylitis. The baseline demographic and laboratory data of patients who visited Samsung Medical Center rheumatology clinic from Dec. 2003 to Sep. 2018 were analyzed. Patients were divided into two groups: early-TNF and non-early-TNF users. Machine learning models were formulated to predict the early-TNF users using the baseline data. Feature importance analysis was performed to delineate significant baseline characteristics. The numbers of early-TNF and non-early-TNF users were 90 and 505, respectively. The performance of the ANN model, based on the area under curve (AUC) for a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of 0.783, was superior to logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest, and XGBoost models (for an ROC curve of 0.719, 0.699, 0.761, and 0.713, respectively) in predicting early-TNF users. Feature importance analysis revealed CRP and ESR as the top significant baseline characteristics for predicting early-TNF users. Our model displayed superior performance in predicting early-TNF users compared with logistic regression and other machine learning models. Machine learning can be a vital tool in predicting treatment response in various rheumatologic diseases.

SUBMITTER: Lee S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7679386 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Machine learning to predict early TNF inhibitor users in patients with ankylosing spondylitis.

Lee Seulkee S Eun Yeonghee Y Kim Hyungjin H Cha Hoon-Suk HS Koh Eun-Mi EM Lee Jaejoon J

Scientific reports 20201120 1

We aim to generate an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict early TNF inhibitor users in patients with ankylosing spondylitis. The baseline demographic and laboratory data of patients who visited Samsung Medical Center rheumatology clinic from Dec. 2003 to Sep. 2018 were analyzed. Patients were divided into two groups: early-TNF and non-early-TNF users. Machine learning models were formulated to predict the early-TNF users using the baseline data. Feature importance analysis was perfo ...[more]

PMID: 33219239

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Project description:BackgroundFew studies on rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have generated machine learning models to predict biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) responses; however, these studies included insufficient analysis on important features. Moreover, machine learning is yet to be used to predict bDMARD responses in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Thus, in this study, machine learning was used to predict such responses in RA and AS patients.MethodsData were retrieved from the Korean College of Rheumatology Biologics therapy (KOBIO) registry. The number of RA and AS patients in the training dataset were 625 and 611, respectively. We prepared independent test datasets that did not participate in any process of generating machine learning models. Baseline clinical characteristics were used as input features. Responders were defined as those who met the ACR 20% improvement response criteria (ACR20) and ASAS 20% improvement response criteria (ASAS20) in RA and AS, respectively, at the first follow-up. Multiple machine learning methods, including random forest (RF-method), were used to generate models to predict bDMARD responses, and we compared them with the logistic regression model.ResultsThe RF-method model had superior prediction performance to logistic regression model (accuracy: 0.726 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.725-0.730] vs. 0.689 [0.606-0.717], area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) 0.638 [0.576-0.658] vs. 0.565 [0.493-0.605], F1 score 0.841 [0.837-0.843] vs. 0.803 [0.732-0.828], AUC of the precision-recall curve 0.808 [0.763-0.829] vs. 0.754 [0.714-0.789]) with independent test datasets in patients with RA. However, machine learning and logistic regression exhibited similar prediction performance in AS patients. Furthermore, the patient self-reporting scales, which are patient global assessment of disease activity (PtGA) in RA and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI) in AS, were revealed as the most important features in both diseases.ConclusionsRF-method exhibited superior prediction performance for responses of bDMARDs to a conventional statistical method, i.e., logistic regression, in RA patients. In contrast, despite the comparable size of the dataset, machine learning did not outperform in AS patients. The most important features of both diseases, according to feature importance analysis were patient self-reporting scales.

Project description:BackgroundPreference-based measures of health-related quality of life (HRQoL), such as the EQ-5D or the SF-6D, are essential for health economic evaluation. However, they are rarely included in clinical trials of ankylosing spondylitis (AS). This study aims to develop mapping algorithms to predict EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L health utility scores from the Bath Ankylosing Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) and the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI).MethodsPatients with AS were recruited from the largest tertiary hospital in Shandong province, China, between December 2019 and October 2020. Patients were selected by convenience sampling method according to the following criteria: (1) diagnosed with AS according to the New York criteria; (2) aged 18 years and above; and (3) without mental disorders; (4) able to understand the questionnaires; (5) without serious complications. There were 243 patients who completed the face-to-face questionnaire survey, and 5 cases with missing values in key variables were excluded. Ordinary least squares, censored least absolute deviations, Tobit, adjusted limited dependent variable mixture model and beta-mixture model (BM) in the direct approach and ordered logit and multinomial logit (Mlogit) model in the response approach were used to develop mapping algorithms. Mean absolute error, root mean square error, Spearman's correlation coefficient and concordance correlation coefficient were used to access predictive performance.ResultsThe 238 patients with AS had a mean age of 35.19 (SD = 9.59) years, and the majority (74.47%) were male. The observed EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L health utility values were 0.88 (SD = 0.12) and 0.74 (SD = 0.27), respectively. The EQ-5D-5L had higher conceptual overlap with the BASDAI and BASFI than the EQ-5D-3L did. The Mlogit was the best-performing model for the EQ-5D-3L, and the BM showed better performance in predicting EQ-5D-5L than other direct and indirect mapping models did.ConclusionThis study demonstrates that the EQ-5D-5L, rather than EQ-5D-3L, should be selected as the target outcome measure of HRQoL in patients with AS in China, and the BM mapping algorithm could be used to predict EQ-5D-5L values from BASDAI and BASFI for health economic evaluation.

Dataset Information

Machine learning to predict early TNF inhibitor users in patients with ankylosing spondylitis.

Publications

Machine learning to predict early TNF inhibitor users in patients with ankylosing spondylitis.

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