Modeling smoking-attributable mortality among adults with major depression in the United States.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Tam J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7680404 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundStatistical data on the burden and relevant risk factors of lung cancer are valuable for policy-making. This study aimed to compare the mortality of lung cancer attributable to smoking stratified by sex and age among adults in China and the United States (US).MethodsWe extracted age-standardized mortality rates of lung cancer during 1990-2017 using the comparative risk assessment framework of the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. We performed an age-period-cohort analysis to estimate time trend of lung cancer mortality attributable to smoking.ResultsDuring 1990-2017, the age-standardized mortality rate of lung cancer was increasing in China but decreasing in the US for both sexes. The mortality attributable to smoking in China showed a generally increasing trend, while a continuous decrease was observed in the US. The age-period-cohort analysis showed a similar trend of age effect among adults between China and the US: the mortality substantially increased from the 30-34 to 80-84 age group and subsequently decreased in the 90-94 age group. However, the period effect rapidly increased in Chinese adults during 1990-2017, while it tended to be stable in the US although it was still slightly increasing in women. The cohort effect generally peaked in the earlier cohort born in 1902-1906 in the two countries.ConclusionsDuring 1990-2017, the lung cancer mortality attributable to smoking and the period effect are generally increasing in Chinese adults; the mortality attributable to smoking is decreasing in the US adults, but the period effect tends to be stable. The rapid aging and prevalence of smoking may intensify the increasing mortality of lung cancer in China.
| S-EPMC7668493 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEducational disparities in U.S. adult mortality are large and have widened across birth cohorts. We consider three policy relevant scenarios and estimate the mortality attributable to: (1) individuals having less than a high school degree rather than a high school degree, (2) individuals having some college rather than a baccalaureate degree, and (3) individuals having anything less than a baccalaureate degree rather than a baccalaureate degree, using educational disparities specific to the 1925, 1935, and 1945 cohorts.MethodsWe use the National Health Interview Survey data (1986-2004) linked to prospective mortality through 2006 (N=1,008,949), and discrete-time survival models, to estimate education- and cohort-specific mortality rates. We use those mortality rates and data on the 2010 U.S. population from the American Community Survey, to calculate annual attributable mortality estimates.ResultsIf adults aged 25-85 in the 2010 U.S. population experienced the educational disparities in mortality observed in the 1945 cohort, 145,243 deaths could be attributed to individuals having less than a high school degree rather than a high school degree, 110,068 deaths could be attributed to individuals having some college rather than a baccalaureate degree, and 554,525 deaths could be attributed to individuals having anything less than a baccalaureate degree rather than a baccalaureate degree. Widening educational disparities between the 1925 and 1945 cohorts result in a doubling of attributable mortality. Mortality attributable to having less than a high school degree is proportionally similar among women and men and among non-Hispanic blacks and whites, and is greater for cardiovascular disease than for cancer.ConclusionsMortality attributable to low education is comparable in magnitude to mortality attributable to individuals being current rather than former smokers. Existing research suggests that a substantial part of the association between education and mortality is causal. Thus, policies that increase education could significantly reduce adult mortality.
| S-EPMC4496052 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:Tobacco control efforts implemented in the United States since the 1960s have led to considerable reductions in smoking and smoking-related diseases, including lung cancer. Objective:To project reductions in tobacco use and lung cancer mortality from 2015 to 2065 due to existing tobacco control efforts. Design:Comparative modeling approach using 4 simulation models of the natural history of lung cancer that explicitly relate temporal smoking patterns to lung cancer rates. Setting:U.S. population, 1964 to 2065. Participants:Adults aged 30 to 84 years. Measurements:Models were developed using U.S. data on smoking (1964 to 2015) and lung cancer mortality (1969 to 2010). Each model projected lung cancer mortality by smoking status under the assumption that current decreases in smoking would continue into the future (status quo trends). Sensitivity analyses examined optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Results:Under the assumption of continued decreases in smoking, age-adjusted lung cancer mortality was projected to decrease by 79% between 2015 and 2065. Concomitantly, and despite the expected growth, aging, and longer life expectancy of the U.S. population, the annual number of lung cancer deaths was projected to decrease from 135 000 to 50 000 (63% reduction). However, 4.4 million deaths from lung cancer are still projected to occur in the United States from 2015 to 2065, with about 20 million adults aged 30 to 84 years continuing to smoke in 2065. Limitation:Projections assumed no changes to tobacco control efforts in the future and did not explicitly consider the potential effect of lung cancer screening. Conclusion:Tobacco control efforts implemented since the 1960s will continue to reduce lung cancer rates well into the next half-century. Additional prevention and cessation efforts will be required to sustain and expand these gains to further reduce the lung cancer burden in the United States. Primary Funding Source:National Cancer Institute.
| S-EPMC6242740 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:HIV-infected people are at increased risk of cancers of infectious origin. We estimated the burden of cancer attributable to infections among HIV-infected people in the United States in 2008. DESIGN:Incidence rates for cancer sites associated with infections were estimated from record linkage between HIV/AIDS registries and cancer registries. METHODS:Rates were applied to estimates of the population living with diagnosed HIV in the United States in 2008 to obtain the number of incident cancer cases. Site-specific attributable fractions and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from infection prevalence among cancer cases. Infection prevalence data were derived from literature review of case series. RESULTS:Of an estimated 6200 incident cancer cases (95% CI 6000-6500), 2500 (95% CI 2400-2700) were attributable to infection (attributable fraction = 40%, 95% CI 39-42). The most important infections were Kaposi sarcoma herpes virus, Epstein-Barr virus, and human papillomavirus, which together were responsible for 2200 new cancer cases (95% CI 2100-2400), mainly Kaposi sarcoma, lymphomas, and ano-genital cancers. The attributable fraction in HIV-infected people was highest in the age group 20-29 years (69%, 95% CI 65-72). MSM were the HIV transmission group with the highest attributable fraction (48%, 95% CI 46-50), due to the high incidence of both Kaposi sarcoma and anal cancer. CONCLUSION:The very high fraction of cancer attributable to infection in HIV-infected people points to special opportunities to prevent these cancers, that is, avoidance, detection, and early treatment of cancer-associated infections, and universal early detection and uninterrupted treatment of HIV infection to avoid immunosuppression.
| S-EPMC4636914 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe disease risks from cigarette smoking increased in the United States over most of the 20th century, first among male smokers and later among female smokers. Whether these risks have continued to increase during the past 20 years is unclear.MethodsWe measured temporal trends in mortality across three time periods (1959-1965, 1982-1988, and 2000-2010), comparing absolute and relative risks according to sex and self-reported smoking status in two historical cohort studies and in five pooled contemporary cohort studies, among participants who became 55 years of age or older during follow-up.ResultsFor women who were current smokers, as compared with women who had never smoked, the relative risks of death from lung cancer were 2.73, 12.65, and 25.66 in the 1960s, 1980s, and contemporary cohorts, respectively; corresponding relative risks for male current smokers, as compared with men who had never smoked, were 12.22, 23.81, and 24.97. In the contemporary cohorts, male and female current smokers also had similar relative risks for death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (25.61 for men and 22.35 for women), ischemic heart disease (2.50 for men and 2.86 for women), any type of stroke (1.92 for men and 2.10 for women), and all causes combined (2.80 for men and 2.76 for women). Mortality from COPD among male smokers continued to increase in the contemporary cohorts in nearly all the age groups represented in the study and within each stratum of duration and intensity of smoking. Among men 55 to 74 years of age and women 60 to 74 years of age, all-cause mortality was at least three times as high among current smokers as among those who had never smoked. Smoking cessation at any age dramatically reduced death rates.ConclusionsThe risk of death from cigarette smoking continues to increase among women and the increased risks are now nearly identical for men and women, as compared with persons who have never smoked. Among men, the risks associated with smoking have plateaued at the high levels seen in the 1980s, except for a continuing, unexplained increase in mortality from COPD.
| S-EPMC3632080 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objectives: To estimate years of potential life lost (YPLL) and present value of future lost productivity (PVFLP) associated with premature mortality due to HPV-attributable cancers, specifically those targeted by nonavalent HPV (9vHPV) vaccination, in the United States (US) before vaccine use. Methods: YPLL was estimated from the reported number of deaths in 2017 due to HPV-related cancers, the proportion attributable to 9vHPV-targeted types, and age- and sex-specific US life expectancy. PVFLP was estimated as the product of YPLL by age- and sex-specific probability of labor force participation, annual wage, value of non-market labor, and fringe benefits markup factor. Results: An estimated 7,085 HPV-attributable cancer deaths occurred in 2017 accounting for 154,954 YPLL, with 5,450 deaths (77%) and 121,226 YPLL (78%) attributable to 9vHPV-targeted types. The estimated PVFLP was $3.3 billion for cancer deaths attributable to 9vHPV-targeted types (86% from women). The highest productivity burden was associated with cervical cancer in women and anal and oropharyngeal cancers in men. Conclusions: HPV-attributable cancer deaths are associated with a substantial economic burden in the US, much of which could be vaccine preventable.
| S-EPMC7921151 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSolid organ transplant recipients have an elevated risk of cancer. Quantifying deaths attributable to cancer can inform priorities to reduce cancer burden.MethodsLinked transplantation and cancer registry data were used to identify incident cancers and deaths among solid organ transplant recipients in the United States (1987-2014). Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of deaths due to cancer and corresponding cancer-attributable mortality rates were estimated using Cox models.ResultsAmong 221,962 solid organ transplant recipients, 15,012 developed cancer. Approximately 13% of deaths (PAF, 13.2%) were attributable to cancer, corresponding to a cancer-attributable mortality rate of 516 per 100,000 person-years. Lung cancer was the largest contributor to mortality (PAF, 3.1%), followed by non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL; PAF, 1.9%), colorectal cancer (PAF, 0.7%), and kidney cancer (PAF, 0.5%). Cancer-attributable mortality rates increased with age at transplantation, reaching 1229 per 100,000 person-years among recipients aged ≥65 years. NHL was the largest contributor among children (PAF, 4.1%) and lung cancer was the largest contributor among recipients aged ≥50 years (PAFs, 3.7%-4.3%). Heart recipients had the highest PAF (16.4%), but lung recipients had the highest cancer-attributable mortality rate (1241 per 100,000 person-years). Overall, mortality attributable to cancer increased steadily with longer time since transplantation, reaching 15.7% of deaths (810 per 100,000 person-years) at ≥10 years after transplantation. Comparison of cancer-attributable mortality rates with specified causes of death indicated that some deaths recorded as other causes might instead be caused by cancer or its treatment.ConclusionsCancer is a substantial cause of mortality among solid organ transplant recipients, with major contributions reported from lung cancer and NHL. Cancer-attributable mortality increases with age and time since transplantation, and therefore cancer deaths will become an increasing burden as recipients live longer.
| S-EPMC6625902 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study investigated whether anti-immigrant sentiment leading up to the 2016 election increased risk of major depression among older U.S. immigrants. Drawing data from the Health and Retirement Study, we tested whether there was a disproportionate increase in major depression among U.S. immigrants than non-immigrants from 2014 to 2016 using a Difference in Difference approach. Older immigrants had a higher relative change in major depression from 2014 to 2016 than non-immigrants (RRR 1.35; 95% CI 1.06, 1.73). This relationship was driven by associations among those who are White (RRR 2.07; 95% CI 1.26, 3.41) or Hispanic (RRR 1.55; 95% CI 0.99, 2.40). Anti-immigrant sentiment leading up to the 2016 election was associated with an increase in major depression among older U.S. immigrants. Findings may help identify high-risk groups in future election years and inform treatment strategies for major depression that consider the influence of sociopolitical factors.
| S-EPMC8892688 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDating from the 1920s and linked to the increase in mortality among smokers, tobacco has become one of the most studied health risk factors. Tobacco-use series, whether for the general population or for specific groups, are unavailable for most South American countries, something that hinders the characterisation of this risk factor.ObjectivesTo identify and analyse studies that estimate smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) in South America and provide an overview of the impact of smoking habit on mortality in the region.MethodsSystematic review using PubMed, Embase, LILACS, Biblioteca Virtual en Salud, Google Scholar and Google, and including all papers published until June 2020 reporting studies in which SAM was estimated.ResultsThe search yielded 140 papers, 17 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria. There were SAM estimates for all South American countries, with Argentina having the most. The first estimate covered 1981 and the latest, 2013. The method most used was prevalence-based. Regardless of the country and point in time covered by the estimate, the highest figures were recorded for men in all cases. The burden of attributable vs observed mortality varied among countries, reaching a figure of 20.3% in Argentina in 1986. The highest SAM burden was registered for the group of cardiovascular diseases.ConclusionsSAM estimates are available for all South American countries but the respective study periods differ and the frequency of the estimates is unclear. For 4 countries, the only estimates available are drawn from reports, something that does not allow for a detailed assessment of the estimates obtained. To help with decision-making targeted at evaluating and enhancing the impact of smoking control policies, further studies are needed in order to update the impact of smoking on all countries across South America.
| S-EPMC8005314 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThis study sought to analyse the trend in smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) in Spain among the population aged ≥35 years across the period 1990-2018.MethodsSAM was estimated by applying a prevalence-independent method, which uses lung cancer (LC) mortality as a proxy of tobacco consumption. We sourced observed mortality from the National Institute of Statistics (Spain), LC mortality rates in smokers and never smokers from the Cancer Prevention Study I-II, and relative risks from 5 US cohorts. Estimates of annual SAM by cause of death, sex and age are shown, along with crude and annual standardised SAM rates. The trend in standardised all-cause and LC rates was analysed using a joinpoint regression model.ResultsTobacco caused 1 717 150 deaths in Spain in the period 1990-2018. Among men, cancers replaced cardiovascular diseases-diabetes mellitus (CVD-DM) as the leading group of tobacco-related cause of death in 1994. Among women, CVD-DM remained the leading cause of death throughout the period. Trend analysis of standardised SAM rates due to all causes and LC showed a decrease in men and an increase in women.ConclusionsThe tobacco epidemic in Spain across the period 1990-2018 has had an important impact on mortality and has evolved differently in both genders. SAM is expected to increase dramatically in women in the coming years. SAM data highlight the importance of including a gender perspective in SAM analyses, in designing more effective and comprehensive public health interventions and in developing gender-specific tobacco control policies to curb tobacco consumption.
| S-EPMC9713395 | biostudies-literature