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Modeling and interpreting the COVID-19 intervention strategy of China: A human mobility view.


ABSTRACT: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has proved a globally prevalent outbreak since December 2019. As a focused country to alleviate the epidemic impact, China implemented a range of public health interventions to prevent the disease from further transmission, including the pandemic lockdown in Wuhan and other cities. This paper establishes China's mobility network by a flight dataset and proposes a model without epidemiological parameters to indicate the spread risks through the network, which is termed as epidemic strength. By simply adjusting an intervention parameter, traffic volumes under different travel-restriction levels can be simulated to analyze how the containment strategy can mitigate the virus dissemination through traffic. This approach is successfully applied to a network of Chinese provinces and the epidemic strength is smoothly interpreted by flow maps. Through this node-to-node interpretation of transmission risks, both overall and detailed epidemic hazards are properly analyzed, which can provide valuable intervention advice during public health emergencies.

SUBMITTER: Chen H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7685462 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling and interpreting the COVID-19 intervention strategy of China: A human mobility view.

Chen Haonan H   He Jing J   Song Wenhui W   Wang Lianchao L   Wang Jiabao J   Chen Yijin Y  

PloS one 20201124 11


The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has proved a globally prevalent outbreak since December 2019. As a focused country to alleviate the epidemic impact, China implemented a range of public health interventions to prevent the disease from further transmission, including the pandemic lockdown in Wuhan and other cities. This paper establishes China's mobility network by a flight dataset and proposes a model without epidemiological parameters to indicate the spread risks through the network, whi  ...[more]

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