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A new nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation after intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke patients.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:A reliable scoring tool to detect the risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) after intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke is warranted. The present study was designed to develop and validate a new nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation (HT) in patients treated with intravenous (IV) recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA). METHODS:We enrolled patients who suffered from acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with IV rt-PA treatment in our emergency green channel between August 2016 and July 2018. The main outcome was defined as any type of intracerebral hemorrhage according to the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II (ECASS II). All patients were randomly divided into two cohorts: the primary cohort and the validation cohort. On the basis of multivariate logistic model, the predictive nomogram was generated. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. RESULTS:A total of 194 patients with complete data were enrolled, of whom 131 comprised the primary cohort and 63 comprised the validation cohort, with HT rate 12.2, 9.5% respectively. The score of chronic disease scale (CDS), the global burden of cerebral small vascular disease (CSVD), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score???13, and onset-to-treatment time (OTT)???180 were detected important determinants of ICH and included to construct the nomogram. The nomogram derived from the primary cohort for HT had C- Statistics of 0.9562 and the calibration plot revealed generally fit in predicting the risk of HT. Furthermore, we made a comparison between our new nomogram and several other risk-assessed scales for HT with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and the results showed the nomogram model gave an area under curve of 0.9562 (95%CI, 0.9221-0.9904, P?

SUBMITTER: Wu Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7685652 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A new nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation after intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke patients.

Wu Yaya Y Chen Hui H Liu Xueyun X Cai Xiuying X Kong Yan Y Wang Hui H Zhou Yun Y Zhu Juehua J Zhang Lulu L Fang Qi Q Li Tan T

BMC neurology 20201124 1

<h4>Background</h4>A reliable scoring tool to detect the risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) after intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke is warranted. The present study was designed to develop and validate a new nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation (HT) in patients treated with intravenous (IV) recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA).<h4>Methods</h4>We enrolled patients who suffered from acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with IV rt- ...[more]

PMID: 33234113

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Project description:BackgroundHemorrhagic transformation (HT) is the most serious complication of ischemic stroke patients after intravenous thrombolysis and leads to a poor clinical prognosis. This study aimed to determine the independent predictors associated with HT in stroke patients with intravenous thrombolysis and to establish and validate a nomogram that combines with predictors to predict the probability of HT after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with ischemic stroke.MethodThis study enrolled ischemic stroke patients with intravenous thrombolysis from December 2016 to June 2022. All the patients were divided into training and validation cohorts. The nomogram was composed of the significant predictors for HT in the training cohort as obtained by the multivariate logistic regression analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to assess the discriminative performance of the nomogram. The calibration performance of the nomogram was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots. Decision curve analysis was used to test the clinical validity of the nomogram.ResultsA total of 394 patients with intravenous thrombolysis were enrolled in the study. In the training cohort (n = 257), 45 patients had HT after intravenous thrombolysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated early infarct signs (OR, 7.954; 95% CI, 3.553-17.803; P < 0.001), NIHSS scores (OR, 1.110; 95% CI, 1.054-1.168; P < 0.001), uric acid (OR, 0.993; 95% CI, 0.989-0.997; P = 0.001), and albumin-to-globulin ratio (OR, 0.109; 95% CI, 0.023-0.508; P = 0.005) were independent predictors for HT and constructed the nomogram. In the training and validation cohorts, the AUC of the nomogram was 0.859 and 0.839, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plot showed good concordance between predicted and observed probability in the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram was significantly useful for predicting HT in the training and further confirmed in the validation cohort.ConclusionThis study proposes a novel and practical nomogram based on early infarct signs, NIHSS scores, uric acid, and albumin-to-globulin ratio that can well predict the probability of HT after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with ischemic stroke.

Project description:Background and Purpose: Hyperhomocysteinemia (Hhcy) is a well-known risk factor for ischemic stroke. However, the role of Hhcy in the clinical outcome of ischemic stroke has not been fully elucidated. In addition, previous studies have found that Hhcy was implicated in the disruption of the blood-brain barrier, which may increase the risk of hemorrhagic transformation (HT) after thrombolysis. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the effect of Hhcy on the clinical outcome and HT after thrombolysis in ischemic stroke patients. Methods: Patients who were diagnosed with ischemic stroke and received intravenous thrombolytic therapy between January 2016 and September 2018 were included in this study. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between Hhcy, clinical outcome, and HT after thrombolysis. Furthermore, the potential interaction between Hhcy and hypertension on the clinical outcome and HT after thrombolysis was also assessed. Results: Of 568 patients, 455 (80.1%) had Hhcy, 66 (11.6%) had HT, and 219 (38.6%) had poor outcome. Patients with Hhcy had a higher incidence of poor outcome than the patients with non-Hhcy (40.9 vs. 29.2%, p = 0.022). However, there was no significant difference in the incidence of HT (11.9 vs. 10.6%, p = 0.711) between patients with Hhcy and non-Hhcy. After adjustment for major covariates, multivariate logistic regression analysis disclosed that Hhcy was independently associated with increased risk of poor outcome (OR = 1.760; 95% CI: 1.069-2.896) but was not associated with the risk of HT (OR = 1.017; 95% CI: 0.495-2.087). In addition, we found no significant interaction between Hhcy and hypertension on the clinical outcome (p = 0.513) or HT (p = 0.170) after thrombolysis. Conclusion: We found that Hhcy was an independent risk factor for poor outcome, but not an independent risk factor for HT after thrombolysis in ischemic stroke patients. In addition, there was no significant interaction of Hhcy and hypertension on the clinical outcome or HT after thrombolysis.

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A new nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation after intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke patients.

Publications

A new nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation after intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke patients.

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