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Causal Inference for Genetic Obesity, Cardiometabolic Profile and COVID-19 Susceptibility: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

ABSTRACT: Background:Cross-sectional observational studies have reported obesity and cardiometabolic co-morbidities as important predictors of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalization. The causal impact of these risk factors is unknown at present.

Methods:We conducted multivariable logistic regression to evaluate the observational associations between obesity traits (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference [WC]), quantitative cardiometabolic parameters (systolic blood pressure [SBP], serum glucose, serum glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c], low-density lipoprotein [LDL] cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol and triglycerides [TG]) and SARS-CoV-2 positivity in the UK Biobank cohort. One-sample MR was performed by using the genetic risk scores of obesity and cardiometabolic traits constructed from independent datasets and the genotype and phenotype data from the UK Biobank. Two-sample MR was performed using the summary statistics from COVID-19 host genetics initiative. Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to assess the risk conferred by different genetic quintiles of causative exposure traits.

Results:The study comprised 1,211 European participants who were tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and 387,079 participants who were either untested or tested negative between 16 March 2020 to 31 May 2020. Observationally, higher BMI, WC, HbA1c and lower HDL-cholesterol were associated with higher odds of COVID-19 infection. One-sample MR analyses found causal associations between higher genetically determined BMI and LDL cholesterol and increased risk of COVID-19 (odds ratio [OR]: 1.15, confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.26 and OR: 1.58, CI: 1.21-2.06, per 1 standard deviation increment in BMI and LDL cholesterol respectively). Two-sample MR produced concordant results. Cox models indicated that individuals in the higher genetic risk score quintiles of BMI and LDL were more predisposed to COVID-19 (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.24, CI: 1.03-1.49 and HR: 1.37, CI: 1.14-1.65, for the top vs the bottom quintile for BMI and LDL cholesterol, respectively).

Conclusion:We identified causal associations between BMI, LDL cholesterol and susceptibility to COVID-19. In particular, individuals in higher genetic risk categories were predisposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection. These findings support the integration of BMI into the risk assessment of COVID-19 and allude to a potential role of lipid modification in the prevention and treatment.

SUBMITTER: Aung N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7686798 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Causal Inference for Genetic Obesity, Cardiometabolic Profile and COVID-19 Susceptibility: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Aung Nay N Khanji Mohammed Y MY Munroe Patricia B PB Petersen Steffen E SE

Frontiers in genetics 20201111

<h4>Background</h4>Cross-sectional observational studies have reported obesity and cardiometabolic co-morbidities as important predictors of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalization. The causal impact of these risk factors is unknown at present.<h4>Methods</h4>We conducted multivariable logistic regression to evaluate the observational associations between obesity traits (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference [WC]), quantitative cardiometabolic parameters (systolic blood pressure ...[more]

PMID: 33262790

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Project description:BackgroundEpidemiological studies report associations of diverse cardiometabolic conditions including obesity with COVID-19 illness, but causality has not been established. We sought to evaluate the associations of 17 cardiometabolic traits with COVID-19 susceptibility and severity using 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses.Methods and findingsWe selected genetic variants associated with each exposure, including body mass index (BMI), at p < 5 × 10-8 from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We then calculated inverse-variance-weighted averages of variant-specific estimates using summary statistics for susceptibility and severity from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative GWAS meta-analyses of population-based cohorts and hospital registries comprising individuals with self-reported or genetically inferred European ancestry. Susceptibility was defined as testing positive for COVID-19 and severity was defined as hospitalization with COVID-19 versus population controls (anyone not a case in contributing cohorts). We repeated the analysis for BMI with effect estimates from the UK Biobank and performed pairwise multivariable MR to estimate the direct effects and indirect effects of BMI through obesity-related cardiometabolic diseases. Using p < 0.05/34 tests = 0.0015 to declare statistical significance, we found a nonsignificant association of genetically higher BMI with testing positive for COVID-19 (14,134 COVID-19 cases/1,284,876 controls, p = 0.002; UK Biobank: odds ratio 1.06 [95% CI 1.02, 1.10] per kg/m2; p = 0.004]) and a statistically significant association with higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalization (6,406 hospitalized COVID-19 cases/902,088 controls, p = 4.3 × 10-5; UK Biobank: odds ratio 1.14 [95% CI 1.07, 1.21] per kg/m2, p = 2.1 × 10-5). The implied direct effect of BMI was abolished upon conditioning on the effect on type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease, stroke, and chronic kidney disease. No other cardiometabolic exposures tested were associated with a higher risk of poorer COVID-19 outcomes. Small study samples and weak genetic instruments could have limited the detection of modest associations, and pleiotropy may have biased effect estimates away from the null.ConclusionsIn this study, we found genetic evidence to support higher BMI as a causal risk factor for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity. These results raise the possibility that obesity could amplify COVID-19 disease burden independently or through its cardiometabolic consequences and suggest that targeting obesity may be a strategy to reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundObservational studies have identified an association between body mass index (BMI) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Inferring causality from observational studies, however, is subject to residual confounding, reverse causation, and bias. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the causal association between BMI and AF by using genetic predictors of BMI.MethodsWe identified 51 646 individuals of European ancestry without AF at baseline from 7 prospective population-based cohorts initiated between 1987 and 2002 in the United States, Iceland, and the Netherlands with incident AF ascertained between 1987 and 2012. Cohort-specific mean follow-up ranged from 7.4 to 19.2 years, over which period there was a total of 4178 cases of incident AF. We performed a Mendelian randomization with instrumental variable analysis to estimate a cohort-specific causal hazard ratio for the association between BMI and AF. Two genetic instruments for BMI were used: FTO genotype (rs1558902) and a BMI gene score comprising 39 single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified by genome-wide association studies to be associated with BMI. Cohort-specific estimates were combined by random-effects, inverse variance-weighted meta-analysis.ResultsIn age- and sex-adjusted meta-analysis, both genetic instruments were significantly associated with BMI (FTO: 0.43 [95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.54] kg/m2 per A-allele, P<0.001; BMI gene score: 1.05 [95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.20] kg/m2 per 1-U increase, P<0.001) and incident AF (FTO, hazard ratio, 1.07 [1.02-1.11] per A-allele, P=0.004; BMI gene score, hazard ratio, 1.11 [1.05-1.18] per 1-U increase, P<0.001). Age- and sex-adjusted instrumental variable estimates for the causal association between BMI and incident AF were hazard ratio, 1.15 (1.04-1.26) per kg/m2, P=0.005 (FTO) and 1.11 (1.05-1.17) per kg/m2, P<0.001 (BMI gene score). Both of these estimates were consistent with the meta-analyzed estimate between observed BMI and AF (age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio 1.05 [1.04-1.06] per kg/m2, P<0.001). Multivariable adjustment did not significantly change findings.ConclusionsOur data are consistent with a causal relationship between BMI and incident AF. These data support the possibility that public health initiatives targeting primordial prevention of obesity may reduce the incidence of AF.

Project description:Observational data from China, the United States, France, and Italy suggest that chronological age is an adverse COVID-19 outcome risk factor, with older patients having a higher severity and mortality rate than younger patients. Most studies have gotten the same view. However, the role of aging in COVID-19 adverse effects is unclear. To more accurately assess the effect of aging on adverse COVID-19, we conducted this bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) study. Epigenetic clocks and telomere length were used as biological indicators of aging. Data on epigenetic age (PhenoAge, GrimAge, Intrinsic HorvathAge, and HannumAge) were derived from an analysis of biological aging based on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) data. The telomere length data are derived from GWAS and the susceptibility and severity data are derived from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (HGI). Firstly, epigenetic age and telomere length were used as exposures, and following a screen for appropriate instrumental variables, we used random-effects inverse variance weighting (IVW) for the main analysis, and combined it with other analysis methods (e.g., MR Egger, Weighted median, simple mode, Weighted mode) and multiple sensitivity analysis (heterogeneity analysis, horizontal multiplicity analysis, "leave-one-out" analysis). For reducing false-positive rates, Bonferroni corrected significance thresholds were used. A reverse Mendelian randomization analysis was subsequently performed with COVID-19 susceptibility and severity as the exposure. The results of the MR analysis showed no significant differences in susceptibility to aging and COVID-19. It might suggest that aging is not a risk factor for COVID-19 infection (P-values are in the range of 0.05-0.94). According to the results of our analysis, we found that aging was not a risk factor for the increased severity of COVID-19 (P > 0.05). However, severe COVID-19 can cause telomere lengths to become shorter (beta = -0.01; se = 0.01; P = 0.02779). In addition to this, severe COVID-19 infection can slow the acceleration of the epigenetic clock "GrimAge" (beta = -0.24, se = 0.07, P = 0.00122), which may be related to the closely correlation of rs35081325 and COVID-19 severity. Our study provides partial evidence for the causal effects of aging on the susceptibility and severity of COVID-19.

Dataset Information

Causal Inference for Genetic Obesity, Cardiometabolic Profile and COVID-19 Susceptibility: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Publications

Causal Inference for Genetic Obesity, Cardiometabolic Profile and COVID-19 Susceptibility: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

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