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Development and Validation of a Clinical Score to Predict Neurological Outcomes in Patients With Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Treated With Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation.

ABSTRACT: Importance:Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) is expected to improve the neurological outcomes of patients with refractory cardiac arrest; however, it is invasive, expensive, and requires substantial human resources. The ability to predict neurological outcomes would assist in patient selection for ECPR. Objective:To develop and validate a prediction model for neurological outcomes of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with shockable rhythm treated with ECPR. Design, Setting, and Participants:This prognostic study analyzed data from the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest registry, a multi-institutional nationwide cohort study that included 87 emergency departments in Japan. All adult patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and shockable rhythm who were treated with ECPR between June 2014 and December 2017 were included. Patients were randomly assigned to the development and validation cohorts based on the institutions. The analysis was conducted between November 2019 and August 2020. Exposures:Age (<65 years), time from call to hospital arrival (?25 minutes), initial cardiac rhythm on hospital arrival (shockable), and initial pH value (?7.0). Main Outcomes and Measures:The primary outcome was 1-month survival with favorable neurological outcome, defined by Cerebral Performance Category 1 or 2. In the development cohort, a simple scoring system was developed to predict this outcome using a logistic regression model. The diagnostic ability and calibration of the scoring system were assessed in the validation cohort. Results:A total of 916 patients were included, 458 in the development cohort (median [interquartile range {IQR}] age, 61 [47-69] years, 377 [82.3%] men) and 458 in the validation cohort (median [IQR] age, 60 [49-68] years; 393 [85.8%] men). The cohorts had the same proportion of favorable neurological outcome (57 patients [12.4%]). The prediction scoring system was developed, attributing a score of 1 for each clinical predictor. Patients were divided into 4 groups, corresponding to their scores on the prediction model, as follows: very low probability (score 0), low probability (score 1), middle probability (score 2), and high probability (score 3-4) of good neurological outcome. The mean predicted probabilities in the groups stratified by score were as follows: very low, 1.6% (95% CI, 1.6%-1.6%); low, 4.4% (95% CI, 4.2%-4.6%); middle, 12.5% (95% CI, 12.1%-12.8%); and high, 30.8% (95% CI, 29.1%-32.5%). In the validation cohort, the C statistic of the scoring system was 0.724 (95% CI, 0.652-0.786). The predicted probability was evaluated as well calibrated to the observed favorable outcome in both cohorts by visual assessment of the calibration plot. Conclusions and Relevance:In this study, the scoring system had good discrimination and calibration performance to predict favorable neurological outcomes of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and shockable rhythm who were treated with ECPR.

SUBMITTER: Okada Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7686862 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and Validation of a Clinical Score to Predict Neurological Outcomes in Patients With Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Treated With Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation.

Okada Yohei Y Kiguchi Takeyuki T Irisawa Taro T Yamada Tomoki T Yoshiya Kazuhisa K Park Changhwi C Nishimura Tetsuro T Ishibe Takuya T Yagi Yoshiki Y Kishimoto Masafumi M Inoue Toshiya T Hayashi Yasuyuki Y Sogabe Taku T Morooka Takaya T Sakamoto Haruko H Suzuki Keitaro K Nakamura Fumiko F Matsuyama Tasuku T Nishioka Norihiro N Kobayashi Daisuke D Matsui Satoshi S Hirayama Atsushi A Yoshimura Satoshi S Kimata Shunsuke S Shimazu Takeshi T Ohtsuru Shigeru S Kitamura Tetsuhisa T Iwami Taku T

JAMA network open 20201102 11

<h4>Importance</h4>Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) is expected to improve the neurological outcomes of patients with refractory cardiac arrest; however, it is invasive, expensive, and requires substantial human resources. The ability to predict neurological outcomes would assist in patient selection for ECPR.<h4>Objective</h4>To develop and validate a prediction model for neurological outcomes of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with shockable rhythm treated with ...[more]

PMID: 33231635

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The prognosis in refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) with ongoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) at hospital arrival is often considered dismal. The use of extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (eCPR) for perfusion enhancement during resuscitation has shown variable results. We aimed to investigate outcome in refractory OHCA patients managed conservatively without use of eCPR. METHODS:We included consecutive OHCA patients with refractory arrest or prehospital return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) in the Copenhagen area in 2002-2011. RESULTS:A total of 3992 OHCA patients with resuscitation attempts were included; in 2599, treatment was terminated prehospital, and 1393 (35%) were brought to the hospital either with ROSC (n?=?1285, 92%) or with refractory OHCA (n?=?108, 8%). Of patients brought in with refractory OHCA, 56 (52%) achieved ROSC in the emergency department. There were no differences between patients with refractory OHCA or prehospital ROSC with regard to age, sex, comorbidities, or etiology of OHCA. Time to emergency medical services (EMS) arrival was similar, whereas time to ROSC (when ROSC was achieved) was longer in refractory OHCA patients (EMS, 6 (5-9] vs. 7 [5-10] min, p?=?0.8; ROSC, 15 [9-22] vs. 27 [20-41] min, p?<?0.001). Independent factors associated with transport with refractory OHCA instead of prehospital termination of therapy were OHCA in public (OR, 3.6 [95% CI, 2.2-5.8]; p?<?0.001), witnessed OHCA (OR, 3.7 [2.0-7.1]; p?<?0.001), shockable rhythm (OR, 3.0 [1.9-4.7]; p?<?0.001), younger age (OR, 1.2 [1.1-1.2]; p?<?0.001), and later calendar year (OR, 1.4 [1.2-1.6]; p?<?0.001). Thirty-day survival was 20% in patients with refractory OHCA compared with 42% in patients with prehospital ROSC (p?<?0.001). Four of 28 refractory OHCA patients with duration of resuscitation >?60 min achieved ROSC. No difference in favorable neurological outcome in patients surviving to discharge was found (prehospital ROSC 84% vs. refractory OHCA 86%; p?=?0.7). CONCLUSIONS:Survival after refractory OHCA with ongoing CPR at hospital arrival was significantly lower than among patients with prehospital ROSC. Despite a lower survival, the majority of survivors with both refractory OHCA and prehospital ROSC were discharged with a similar degree of favorable neurological outcome, indicating that continued efforts in spite of refractory OHCA are not in vain and may still lead to favorable outcome even without eCPR.

Project description:IntroductionExtracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) is an emerging invasive rescue therapy for treatment of refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA). We aim to describe the incidence of traumatic and hemorrhagic complications among patients undergoing ECPR for OHCA and examine the association between CPR duration and ECPR-related injuries or bleeding.MethodsWe examined prospectively collected data from the Extracorporeal Resuscitation Outcomes Database (EROD), which includes ECPR-treated OHCAs from participating hospitals (October 2014 to August 2019). The primary outcome was traumatic or hemorrhagic complications, defined any of the following: pneumothorax, pulmonary hemorrhage, major bleeding, cannula site bleeding, gastrointestinal bleeding, thoracotomy, cardiac tamponade, aortic dissection, or vascular injury during hospitalization. The primary exposure was the cardiac arrest to ECPR initiation interval (CA-ECPR interval), measured as the time from arrest to initiation of ECPR. Descriptive statistics were used to compare demographic, cardiac arrest, and ECPR characteristics among patients with and without CPR-related traumatic or bleeding complications. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association between CA-ECPR interval and traumatic or bleeding complications.ResultsA total of 68 patients from 4 hospitals receiving ECPR for OHCA were entered into EROD and met inclusion criteria. Median age was 51 (interquartile range 38-58), 81% were male, 40% had body mass index > 30, and 70% had pre-existing medical comorbidities. A total of 65% had an initial shockable cardiac rhythm, mechanical CPR was utilized in at least 29% of patients, and 27% were discharged alive. The median time from arrest to ECPR initiation was 73 min (IQR 60-104). A total of 37% experienced a traumatic or bleeding complication, with major bleeding (32%), vascular injury (18%), and cannula site bleeding (15%) being the most common. Compared to patients with shorter CPR times, patients with a longer CA-ECPR interval had 18% (95% confidence interval - 2-42%) higher odds of suffering a mechanical or bleeding complication, but this did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.08).ConclusionsTraumatic injuries and bleeding complications are common among patients undergoing ECPR. Further study is needed to investigate the relation between arrest duration and complications. Clinicians performing ECPR should anticipate and assess for injuries and bleeding in this high-risk population.

Project description:Introduction:In this systematic review and meta-analysis of propensity score-matched cohort studies, we quantitatively summarize whether venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) used as extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR), compared with conventional cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CCPR), is associated with improved rates of 30-day and long-term favorable neurological outcomes and survival in patients resuscitated from in- and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Methods:We searched MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Google Scholar for eligible studies on January 14, 2019. All searches were limited to studies published between January 2000 and January 2019. Two investigators independently evaluated the quality (or certainty) of evidence according to GRADE guidelines. Pooled results are presented as relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results:Six cohort studies using propensity score-matched analysis were included, totaling 1108 matched patients. Pooled analyses showed that ECPR was likely associated with improved 30-day and long-term favorable neurological outcome in adults compared to CCPR for in- and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (RR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.29-3.16; I2 = 20%, P = 0.002; very low-quality evidence) and (RR = 2.86, 95% CI = 1.64-5.01; I2 = 0%, P = 0.0002; moderate-quality evidence), respectively. When we analyzed in- and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest separately, ECPR was likely associated with improved 30-day favorable neurological outcome compared to CCPR for in-hospital cardiac arrest (RR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.24-3.81; I2 = 9%, P = 0.006; very low-quality evidence), but not for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (RR = 2.61, 95% CI = 0.56-12.20; I2 = 59%, P = 0.22; very low-quality evidence). ECPR was also likely associated with improved long-term favorable neurological outcome compared to CCPR for in-hospital cardiac arrest (RR = 2.50, 95% CI = 1.33-4.71; I2 = 0%, P = 0.005; moderate-quality evidence) and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (RR = 4.64, 95% CI = 1.41-15.25; I2 = 0%, P = 0.01; moderate-quality evidence). Conclusions:Our analysis suggests that VA-ECMO used as ECPR may improve long-term favorable neurological outcomes and survival when compared to the best standard of care in a selected patient population. Therefore, it is imperative for well-designed randomized clinical trials to obtain a higher level of scientific evidence to ensure optimal outcomes for cardiac arrest patients.

Dataset Information

Development and Validation of a Clinical Score to Predict Neurological Outcomes in Patients With Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Treated With Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation.

Publications

Development and Validation of a Clinical Score to Predict Neurological Outcomes in Patients With Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Treated With Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation.

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