Fatality rate and predictors of mortality in an Italian cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
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SUBMITTER: Bellan M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7692524 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Fatality rate and predictors of mortality in an Italian cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
Bellan Mattia M Patti Giuseppe G Hayden Eyal E Azzolina Danila D Pirisi Mario M Acquaviva Antonio A Aimaretti Gianluca G Aluffi Valletti Paolo P Angilletta Roberto R Arioli Roberto R Avanzi Gian Carlo GC Avino Gianluca G Balbo Piero Emilio PE Baldon Giulia G Baorda Francesca F Barbero Emanuela E Baricich Alessio A Barini Michela M Barone-Adesi Francesco F Battistini Sofia S Beltrame Michela M Bertoli Matteo M Bertolin Stephanie S Bertolotti Marinella M Betti Marta M Bobbio Flavio F Boffano Paolo P Boglione Lucio L Borrè Silvio S Brucoli Matteo M Calzaducca Elisa E Cammarata Edoardo E Cantaluppi Vincenzo V Cantello Roberto R Capponi Andrea A Carriero Alessandro A Casciaro Francesco Giuseppe FG Castello Luigi Mario LM Ceruti Federico F Chichino Guido G Chirico Emilio E Cisari Carlo C Cittone Micol Giulia MG Colombo Crizia C Comi Cristoforo C Croce Eleonora E Daffara Tommaso T Danna Pietro P Della Corte Francesco F De Vecchi Simona S Dianzani Umberto U Di Benedetto Davide D Esposto Elia E Faggiano Fabrizio F Falaschi Zeno Z Ferrante Daniela D Ferrero Alice A Gagliardi Ileana I Gaidano Gianluca G Galbiati Alessandra A Gallo Silvia S Garavelli Pietro Luigi PL Gardino Clara Ada CA Garzaro Massimiliano M Gastaldello Maria Luisa ML Gavelli Francesco F Gennari Alessandra A Giacomini Greta Maria GM Giacone Irene I Giai Via Valentina V Giolitti Francesca F Gironi Laura Cristina LC Gramaglia Carla C Grisafi Leonardo L Inserra Ilaria I Invernizzi Marco M Krengli Marco M Labella Emanuela E Landi Irene Cecilia IC Landi Raffaella R Leone Ilaria I Lio Veronica V Lorenzini Luca L Maconi Antonio A Malerba Mario M Manfredi Giulia Francesca GF Martelli Maria M Marzari Letizia L Marzullo Paolo P Mennuni Marco M Montabone Claudia C Morosini Umberto U Mussa Marco M Nerici Ilaria I Nuzzo Alessandro A Olivieri Carlo C Padelli Samuel Alberto SA Panella Massimiliano M Parisini Andrea A Paschè Alessio A Pau Alberto A Pedrinelli Anita Rebecca AR Percivale Ilaria I Re Roberta R Rigamonti Cristina C Rizzi Eleonora E Rognoni Andrea A Roveta Annalisa A Salamina Luigia L Santagostino Matteo M Saraceno Massimo M Savoia Paola P Sciarra Marco M Schimmenti Andrea A Scotti Lorenza L Spinoni Enrico E Smirne Carlo C Tarantino Vanessa V Tillio Paolo Amedeo PA Vaschetto Rosanna R Vassia Veronica V Zagaria Domenico D Zavattaro Elisa E Zeppegno Patrizia P Zottarelli Francesca F Sainaghi Pier Paolo PP
Scientific reports 20201126 1
Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 pat ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe outbreak of novel coronavirus (Covid-19) has a significant burden on global health and could be associated with significant mortality. Limited information exists about determinants of its fatality worldwide. Thus, this ecological study examined the association of various predictors with Covid-19 fatality.MethodsInternational data bases of Covid-19 statistics and health metrics available primarily at WHO were reviewed to collect information for 113 countries. The dependent variable was Covid-19 case fatality rate. Independent variables were demographic, social, clinical, economic, heath care and child health factors.ResultsCase fatality rate of Covid-19 varies across countries with an average of 4.2 ± 3.8%, and about half of countries had fatality rate >3.2% (median). Significant relationships were observed between Covid-19 fatality rate and socio-economic, clinical, and health variables at the unadjusted regression analysis. At the multivariate adjusted model, percentage of population with age>60 years was positively associated with Covid-19 fatality (B = 0.032, p = 0.005), while Polio-3 immunization at 1-year old was inversely related (B = -0.057, p = 0.017).ConclusionsThis ecological investigation highlights the higher risk of death among elderly with Covid-19 pandemic and suggests that Polio-3 immunization coverage among 1-year-olds may be associated with better survival. Future research is warranted to validate these findings.
| S-EPMC8076728 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic offers the opportunity to assess how hospitals manage the care of hospitalized patients with varying demographics and clinical presentations. The goal of this study was to demonstrate the impact of densely populated residential areas on hospitalization and to identify predictors of length of stay and mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in one of the hardest hit counties internationally.MethodsThis was a single-center cohort study of 1325 sequentially hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in New York between March 2, 2020, to May 11, 2020. Geospatial distribution of study patients' residences relative to population density in the region were mapped, and data analysis included hospital length of stay, need and duration of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and mortality. Logistic regression models were constructed to predict discharge dispositions in the remaining active study patients.ResultsThe median age of the study cohort (interquartile range [IQR]) was 62 (49-75) years, and more than half were male (57%) with history of hypertension (60%), obesity (41%), and diabetes (42%). Geographic residence of the study patients was disproportionately associated with areas of higher population density (r s = 0.235; P = .004), with noted "hot spots" in the region. Study patients were predominantly hypertensive (MAP > 90 mmHg; 670, 51%) on presentation with lymphopenia (590, 55%), hyponatremia (411, 31%), and kidney dysfunction (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2; 381, 29%). Of the patients with a disposition (1188/1325), 15% (182/1188) required IMV and 21% (250/1188) developed acute kidney injury. In patients on IMV, the median (IQR) hospital length of stay in survivors (22 [16.5-29.5] days) was significantly longer than that of nonsurvivors (15 [10-23.75] days), but this was not due to prolonged time on the ventilator. The overall mortality in all hospitalized patients was 15%, and in patients receiving IMV it was 48%, which is predicted to minimally rise from 48% to 49% based on logistic regression models constructed to project disposition in the remaining patients on ventilators. Acute kidney injury during hospitalization (odds ratioE, 3.23) was the strongest predictor of mortality in patients requiring IMV.ConclusionsThis is the first study to collectively utilize the demographics, clinical characteristics, and hospital course of COVID-19 patients to identify predictors of poor outcomes that can be used for resource allocation in future waves of the pandemic.
| S-EPMC7543608 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundFirst reported case of Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Kazakhstan was identified in March 2020. Many specialized tertiary hospitals in Kazakhstan including National Research Cardiac Surgery Center (NRCSC) were re-organized to accept coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infected patients during summer months of 2020. Although many studies from worldwide reported their experience in treating patients with COVID-19, there are limited data available from the Central Asia countries. The aim of this study is to identify predictors of mortality associated with COVID-19 in NRCSC tertiary hospital in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan.MethodsThis is a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to the NRCSC between June 1st-August 31st 2020 with COVID-19. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected from electronic records. In-hospital mortality was assessed as an outcome. Patients were followed-up until in-hospital death or discharge from the hospital. Descriptive statistics and factors associated with mortality were assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models.ResultsTwo hundred thirty-nine admissions were recorded during the follow-up period. Mean age was 57 years and 61% were males. Median duration of stay at the hospital was 8 days and 34 (14%) patients died during the hospitalization. Non-survivors were more likely to be admitted later from the disease onset, with higher fever, lower oxygen saturation and increased respiratory rate compared to survivors. Leukocytosis, lymphopenia, anemia, elevated liver and kidney function tests, hypoproteinemia, elevated inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH)) and coagulation tests (fibrinogen, D-dimer, international normalized ratio (INR), and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT)) at admission were associated with mortality. Age (OR 1.2, CI:1.01-1.43), respiratory rate (OR 1.38, CI: 1.07-1.77), and CRP (OR 1.39, CI: 1.04-1.87) were determined to be independent predictors of mortality.ConclusionThis study describes 14% mortality rate from COVID-19 in the tertiary hospital. Many abnormal clinical and laboratory variables at admission were associated with poor outcome. Age, respiratory rate and CRP were found to be independent predictors of mortality. Our finding would help healthcare providers to predict the risk factors associated with high risk of mortality. Further investigations involving large cohorts should be provided to support our findings.
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Project description:Introduction: COVID-19 patients with hypotension and hypoxemia had a significantly worse outcome. The purpose of this research was to ascertain the risk factors affecting the prognoses of these patients and to develop appropriate prognostic prediction tools. Methods: From March 1, 2020, to April 16, 2020, a retrospective cohort analysis of COVID-19 patients with hypotension and hypoxemia was performed. The univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the associated risk factors influencing the prognosis of COVID-19 patients with hypotension and hypoxemia, and the selected variables were then utilized to construct and validate the prediction model for these patients. Results: Three hundred and twenty-seven COVID-19 patients with hypotension and hypoxemia who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were included in this study. Age, temperature, troponin, and blood glucose were related to mortality in COVID-19 patients with hypotension and hypoxemia in both univariate and multivariate analyses. The MFP model (multiple fractional polynomial model), full model, and stepwise model were utilized to build the prediction model, and their AUCs were, respectively, 0.902 (0.868, 0.936), 0.902 (0.868, 0.936), and 0.902 (0.868, 0.936). Because the sample size for this research was limited, we utilized bootstrapping for internal validation. The AUCs of Bootstrap full and Bootstrap stepwise were 0.902 (0.867, 0.936) and 0.902 (0.868, 0.936), respectively. Conclusion: Age, temperature, troponin, and blood glucose levels were associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients with hypotension and hypoxemia. Additionally, the prediction model developed using the variables above showed a high predictive value for predicting the prognosis of these individuals.
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Project description:BackgroundWe aimed to identify the prevalence and predictors of venous thromboembolism (VTE) or mortality in hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients.MethodsA retrospective cohort study of hospitalized adult patients admitted to an integrated health care network in the New York metropolitan region between March 1, 2020 and April 27, 2020. The final analysis included 9,407 patients with an overall VTE rate of 2.9% (2.4% in the medical ward and 4.9% in the intensive care unit [ICU]) and a VTE or mortality rate of 26.1%. Most patients received prophylactic-dose thromboprophylaxis. Multivariable analysis showed significantly reduced VTE or mortality with Black race, history of hypertension, angiotensin converting enzyme/angiotensin receptor blocker use, and initial prophylactic anticoagulation. It also showed significantly increased VTE or mortality with age 60 years or greater, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) of 3 or greater, patients on Medicare, history of heart failure, history of cerebrovascular disease, body mass index greater than 35, steroid use, antirheumatologic medication use, hydroxychloroquine use, maximum D-dimer four times or greater than the upper limit of normal (ULN), ICU level of care, increasing creatinine, and decreasing platelet counts.ConclusionIn our large cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients, the overall in-hospital VTE rate was 2.9% (4.9% in the ICU) and a VTE or mortality rate of 26.1%. Key predictors of VTE or mortality included advanced age, increasing CCI, history of cardiovascular disease, ICU level of care, and elevated maximum D-dimer with a cutoff at least four times the ULN. Use of prophylactic-dose anticoagulation but not treatment-dose anticoagulation was associated with reduced VTE or mortality.
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Project description:BackgroundStudying the characteristics of hospitalized Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients is vital for understanding the disease and preparing for future outbreaks. The aim of this study was to analyze and describe the clinical profiles and factors associated with mortality among COVID-19 patients admitted to Jimma Medical Center COVID-19 Treatment Center (JMC CTC) in Ethiopia.MethodsAll confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted to JMC CTC between 17 April 2020 and 05 March 2022 were included in this study. Socio-demographic data, clinical information, and outcome variables were collected retrospectively from medical records and COVID-19 database at the hospital. Bivariable and multivariable analyses were performed to determine factors associated with COVID-19 severity and mortality. A P-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.ResultsA total of 542 confirmed COVID-19 patients were admitted to JMC CTC, of which 322 (59.4%) were male. Their median age was 48 years (IQR 32-64). About 51% (n = 277) of them had severe COVID-19 upon admission. Patients with hypertension [AOR: 2.8 (95% CI: 1.02-7.7, p = 0.046)], diabetes [AOR: 8.8 (95% CI: 1.2-17.3, p = 0.039)], and underlying respiratory diseases [AOR: 18.8 (95% CI: 2.06-71.51, p = 0.009)] were more likely to present with severe COVID-19 cases. Overall, 129 (23.8%) died in the hospital. Death rate was higher among patients admitted with severe disease [AHR = 5.5 (3.07-9.9) p < 0.001)] and those with comorbidities such as hypertension [AHR = 3.5 (2.28-5.41), p < 0.001], underlying respiratory disease [AHR = 3.4 (1.97-5.94), p < 0.001], cardiovascular disease (CVDs) [AHR = 2.8 (1.73-4.55), p < 0.001], and kidney diseases [AHR = 3.7 (2.3-5.96), p < 0.001].ConclusionAbout half of COVID-19 cases admitted to the hospital had severe disease upon admission. Comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, and respiratory diseases were linked to severe illness. COVID-19 admissions were associated with high inpatient mortality, particularly among those with severe disease and comorbidities.
| S-EPMC11370003 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsThe present study had two aims: (i) compare echocardiographic parameters in COVID-19 patients with matched controls and (2) assess the prognostic value of measures of left (LV) and right ventricular (RV) function in relation to COVID-19 related death.Methods and resultsIn this prospective multicentre cohort study, 214 consecutive hospitalized COVID-19 patients underwent an echocardiographic examination (by pre-determined research protocol). All participants were successfully matched 1:1 with controls from the general population on age, sex, and hypertension. Mean age of the study sample was 69 years, and 55% were male participants. LV and RV systolic function was significantly reduced in COVID-19 cases as assessed by global longitudinal strain (GLS) (16.4% ± 4.3 vs. 18.5% ± 3.0, P < 0.001), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) (2.0 ± 0.4 vs. 2.6 ± 0.5, P < 0.001), and RV strain (19.8 ± 5.9 vs. 24.2 ± 6.5, P = 0.004). All parameters remained significantly reduced after adjusting for important cardiac risk factors. During follow-up (median: 40 days), 25 COVID-19 cases died. In multivariable Cox regression reduced TAPSE [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.07-1.31], P = 0.002, per 1 mm decrease], RV strain (HR = 1.64, 95%CI[1.02;2.66], P = 0.043, per 1% decrease) and GLS (HR = 1.20, 95%CI[1.07-1.35], P = 0.002, per 1% decrease) were significantly associated with COVID-19-related death. TAPSE and GLS remained significantly associated with the outcome after restricting the analysis to patients without prevalent heart disease.ConclusionsRV and LV function are significantly impaired in hospitalized COVID-19 patients compared with matched controls. Furthermore, reduced TAPSE and GLS are independently associated with COVID-19-related death.
| S-EPMC7755011 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo identify the early mortality predictors in minority patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).DesignDemographics, presenting characteristics, admission laboratory data, ICU admission, and mortality data were collected from 200 consecutively hospitalized patients with COVID-19.ResultsThe mean (SD) age was 58.9 (15.1) years, 121(60.5%) were men, 143 (71.5%) were African Americans, and 33 (16.5%) were Latino. Common presenting symptoms were cough 130 (65.0%), shortness of breath 129 (64.5%), and fever 121 (60.5%). One or more comorbid illness occurred in 171 (85.5%) and common comorbidities were hypertension (130 (65.2%)), diabetes (100 (50.0%)) and chronic kidney disease (60 (30.0%)). Of the 200 patients, 71 (35.5%) were treated in the ICU, 47 (24.2%) received mechanical ventilation, 45 (22.5%) died, and 155(77.5%) patients discharged home alive. The non-survivors were significantly older and had elevated markers of inflammation, coagulation, and acute organ damage on presentation. Age ≥ 65 years (odds ratio (OR), 3.78; 95% CI, 1.74-8.22; P = .001), lactate dehydrogenase level > 400 IU/L (OR, 9.1; 95% CI, 2.97-28.1; p < 0.001), C-reactive protein > 20 mg/dl (OR, 5.56; 95%CI, 1.84-16.8; p < 0.001), ferritin > 2000 ng/ml (OR, 5.42; 95%CI, 1.63-17.9; p = 0.006), creatinine kinase > 1000 iu/l (OR, 3.57; 95% CI, 1.23 10.3; p = 0.019), procalcitonin > 2.5 ng/ml (OR, 4.21; 95% CI, 1.47-12.0; p = 0.007), D-dimer level > 3.0 μg/ml (OR,10.9; 95% CI, 3.33-36.2; p = < 0.001), creatinine > 2 mg/dl (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.29-15.8; P = 0.018) at admission were associated independently with increases risk of in-hospital mortality.ConclusionPatients of advanced age that present with elevated biomarkers of inflammation, coagulation, and end-organ damage were at higher risk of mortality.
| S-EPMC7861003 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mortality rates of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) continue to rise across the world. Information regarding the predictors of mortality in patients with COVID-19 remains scarce. Herein, we performed a systematic review of published articles, from 1 January to 24 April 2020, to evaluate the risk factors associated with mortality in COVID-19. Two investigators independently searched the articles and collected the data, in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We looked for associations between mortality and patient characteristics, comorbidities, and laboratory abnormalities. A total of 14 studies documenting the outcomes of 4659 patients were included. The presence of comorbidities such as hypertension (odds ratio [OR], 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1-3.1; P < .00001), coronary heart disease (OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 2.1-6.9; P < .00001), and diabetes (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.7-2.3; P < .00001) were associated with significantly higher risk of death amongst patients with COVID-19. Those who died, compared with those who survived, differed on multiple biomarkers on admission including elevated levels of cardiac troponin (+44.2 ng/L, 95% CI, 19.0-69.4; P = .0006); C-reactive protein (+66.3 µg/mL, 95% CI, 46.7-85.9; P < .00001); interleukin-6 (+4.6 ng/mL, 95% CI, 3.6-5.6; P < .00001); D-dimer (+4.6 µg/mL, 95% CI, 2.8-6.4; P < .00001); creatinine (+15.3 µmol/L, 95% CI, 6.2-24.3; P = .001); and alanine transaminase (+5.7 U/L, 95% CI, 2.6-8.8; P = .0003); as well as decreased levels of albumin (-3.7 g/L, 95% CI, -5.3 to -2.1; P < .00001). Individuals with underlying cardiometabolic disease and that present with evidence for acute inflammation and end-organ damage are at higher risk of mortality due to COVID-19 infection and should be managed with greater intensity.
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