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Predicting 6-Month Mortality for Older Adults Hospitalized With Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Cohort Study.

ABSTRACT: Background:Older adults with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have higher prevalence of functional impairments, including deficits in cognition, strength, and sensory domains, than their younger counterparts. Objective:To develop and evaluate the prognostic utility of a risk model for 6-month post-AMI mortality in older adults that incorporates information about functional impairments. Design:Prospective cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01755052). Setting:94 hospitals throughout the United States. Participants:3006 persons aged 75 years or older who were hospitalized with AMI and discharged alive. Measurements:Functional impairments were assessed during hospitalization via direct measurement (cognition, mobility, muscle strength) or self-report (vision, hearing). Clinical variables associated with mortality in prior risk models were ascertained by chart review. Seventy-two candidate variables were selected for inclusion, and backward selection and Bayesian model averaging were used to derive (n = 2004 participants) and validate (n = 1002 participants) a model for 6-month mortality. Results:Participants' mean age was 81.5 years, 44.4% were women, and 10.5% were nonwhite. There were 266 deaths (8.8%) within 6 months. The final risk model included 15 variables, 4 of which were not included in prior risk models: hearing impairment, mobility impairment, weight loss, and lower patient-reported health status. The model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow P > 0.05) and showed good discrimination (area under the curve for the validation cohort = 0.84). Adding functional impairments significantly improved model performance, as evidenced by category-free net reclassification improvement indices of 0.21 (P = 0.008) for hearing impairment and 0.26 (P < 0.001) for mobility impairment. Limitation:The model was not externally validated. Conclusion:A newly developed model for 6-month post-AMI mortality in older adults was well calibrated and had good discriminatory ability. This model may be useful in decision making at hospital discharge. Primary Funding Source:National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

SUBMITTER: Dodson JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7695040 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting 6-Month Mortality for Older Adults Hospitalized With Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Cohort Study.

Dodson John A JA Hajduk Alexandra M AM Geda Mary M Krumholz Harlan M HM Murphy Terrence E TE Tsang Sui S Tinetti Mary E ME Nanna Michael G MG McNamara Richard R Gill Thomas M TM Chaudhry Sarwat I SI

Annals of internal medicine 20191210 1

<h4>Background</h4>Older adults with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have higher prevalence of functional impairments, including deficits in cognition, strength, and sensory domains, than their younger counterparts.<h4>Objective</h4>To develop and evaluate the prognostic utility of a risk model for 6-month post-AMI mortality in older adults that incorporates information about functional impairments.<h4>Design</h4>Prospective cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01755052).<h4>Setting</h4>94 ho ...[more]

PMID: 31816630

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Project description:BackgroundEarly readmissions among older adults hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are costly and difficult to predict. Aging-related functional impairments may inform risk prediction but are unavailable in most studies. Our objective was to, therefore, develop and validate an AMI readmission risk model for older patients who considered functional impairments and was suitable for use before hospital discharge.Methods and resultsSILVER-AMI (Comprehensive Evaluation of Risk in Older Adults with AMI) is a prospective cohort study of 3006 patients of age ≥75 years hospitalized with AMI at 94 US hospitals. Participants underwent in-hospital assessment of functional impairments including cognition, vision, hearing, and mobility. Other variables plausibly associated with readmissions were also collected. The outcome was all-cause readmission at 30 days. We used backward selection and Bayesian model averaging to derive (N=2004) a risk model that was subsequently validated (N=1002). Mean age was 81.5 years, 44.4% were women, and 10.5% were nonwhite. Within 30 days, 547 participants (18.2%) were readmitted. Readmitted participants were older, had more comorbidities, and had a higher prevalence of functional impairments, including activities of daily living disability (17.0% versus 13.0%; P=0.013) and impaired functional mobility (72.5% versus 53.6%; P<0.001). The final risk model included 8 variables: functional mobility, ejection fraction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, arrhythmia, acute kidney injury, first diastolic blood pressure, P2Y12 inhibitor use, and general health status. Functional mobility was the only functional impairment variable retained but was the strongest predictor. The model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow P value >0.05) with moderate discrimination (C statistics: 0.65 derivation cohort and 0.63 validation cohort). Functional mobility significantly improved performance of the risk model (net reclassification improvement index =20%; P<0.001).ConclusionsIn our final risk model, functional mobility, previously not included in readmission risk models, was the strongest predictor of 30-day readmission among older adults after AMI. The modest discrimination indicates that much of the variability in readmission risk among this population remains unexplained by patient-level factors.Clinical trial registrationURL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01755052.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Studies of sex-based differences in older adults with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have yielded mixed results. We, therefore, sought to evaluate sex-based differences in presentation characteristics, treatments, functional impairments, and in-hospital complications in a large, well-characterized population of older adults (?75 years) hospitalized with AMI. METHODS AND RESULTS:We analyzed data from participants enrolled in SILVER-AMI (Comprehensive Evaluation of Risk Factors in Older Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction)-a prospective observational study consisting of 3041 older patients (44% women) hospitalized for AMI. Participants were stratified by AMI subtype (ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction [STEMI] and non-STEMI [NSTEMI]) and subsequently evaluated for sex-based differences in clinical presentation, functional impairments, management, and in-hospital complications. Among the study sample, women were slightly older than men (NSTEMI: 82.1 versus 81.3, P<0.001; STEMI: 82.2 versus 80.6, P<0.001) and had lower rates of prior coronary disease. Women in the NSTEMI subgroup presented less frequently with chest pain as their primary symptom. Age-associated functional impairments at baseline were more common in women in both AMI subgroups (cognitive impairment, NSTEMI: 20.6% versus 14.3%, P<0.001; STEMI: 20.6% versus 12.4%, P=0.001; activities of daily living disability, NSTEMI: 19.7% versus 11.4%, P<0.001; STEMI: 14.8% versus 6.4%, P<0.001; impaired functional mobility, NSTEMI: 44.5% versus 30.7%, P<0.001; STEMI: 39.4% versus 22.0%, P<0.001). Women with AMI had lower rates of obstructive coronary disease (NSTEMI: P<0.001; STEMI: P=0.02), driven by lower rates of 3-vessel or left main disease than men (STEMI: 38.8% versus 58.7%; STEMI: 24.3% versus 32.1%), and underwent revascularization less commonly (NSTEMI: 55.6% versus 63.6%, P<0.001; STEMI: 87.3% versus 93.3%, P=0.01). Rates of bleeding were higher among women with STEMI (26.2% versus 15.6%, P<0.001) but not NSTEMI (17.8% versus 15.7%, P=0.21). Women had a higher frequency of bleeding following percutaneous coronary intervention with both NSTEMI (11.0% versus 7.8%, P=0.04) and STEMI (22.6% versus 14.8%, P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS:Among older adults hospitalized with AMI, women had a higher prevalence of age-related functional impairments and, among the STEMI subgroup, a higher incidence of overall bleeding events, which was driven by higher rates of nonmajor bleeding events and bleeding following percutaneous coronary intervention. These differences may have important implications for in-hospital and posthospitalization needs.

Project description:Little is known about the impact of hospitalization for an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) on subsequent adherence to statins.Using administrative claims from a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries, we identified a cohort of Medicare patients aged ?65 years, hospitalized from 2007 to 2011, taking statins in the year before AMI hospitalization (n=6618). We then determined the proportion of patients nonadherent to statins (proportion of days covered <80%) in the year before AMI hospitalization who became statin adherent (proportion of days covered ?80%) in the year after AMI hospitalization. The proportion of statin-adherent patients who became nonadherent was also studied. These proportions were compared with patients hospitalized for pneumonia (n=11?471) and patients not hospitalized (n=158?099) in 2010 and 2011. Among patients nonadherent to statins before AMI hospitalization, 37.7% became adherent after discharge. Patients hospitalized for AMI were more likely to become adherent than patients hospitalized for pneumonia (adjusted relative risk: 1.70; 95% confidence interval, 1.57-1.84) or patients not hospitalized (adjusted relative risk: 1.79; 95% confidence interval, 1.68-1.90). Among patients adherent to statins before AMI hospitalization, 32.6% became nonadherent after discharge. Those hospitalized for AMI were less likely to become nonadherent than those hospitalized for pneumonia (adjusted relative risk: 0.93; 95% confidence interval 0.88-0.98) but more likely to become nonadherent than patients without hospitalizations (adjusted relative risk: 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.35-1.48).Among nonadherent patients, hospitalization for AMI was associated with increased likelihood of becoming adherent to statins compared with hospitalization for pneumonia or no hospitalizations. Among adherent patients, hospitalization for AMI was associated with increased likelihood of becoming nonadherent to statins compared with no hospitalizations.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Sex differences are known to exist in the management of older patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Few studies have examined the incidence and risk factors of AMI among young patients, or whether clinical management differs by sex. METHODS:The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Surveillance study conducts hospital surveillance of AMI in 4 US communities (MD, MN, MS, and NC). AMI was classified by physician review, using a validated algorithm. Medications and procedures were abstracted from the medical record. Our study population was limited to young patients aged 35 to 54 years. RESULTS:From 1995 to 2014, 28?732 weighted hospitalizations for AMI were sampled among patients aged 35 to 74 years. Of these, 8737 (30%) were young. The annual incidence of AMI hospitalizations increased for young women but decreased for young men. The overall proportion of AMI admissions attributable to young patients steadily increased, from 27% in 1995 to 1999 to 32% in 2010 to 2014 ( P for trend=0.002), with the largest increase observed in young women. History of hypertension (59% to 73%, P for trend<0.0001) and diabetes mellitus (25% to 35%, P for trend<0.0001) also increased among young AMI patients. Compared to young men, young women presenting with AMI were more often black and had a greater comorbidity burden. In adjusted analyses, young women had a lower probability of receiving lipid-lowering therapies (relative risk [RR]=0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80-0.94), nonaspirin antiplatelets (RR=0.83; 95% CI, 0.75-0.91), beta blockers (RR=0.96; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99), coronary angiography (RR=0.93; 95% CI, 0.86-0.99) and coronary revascularization (RR = 0.79; 95% CI, 0.71-0.87). However, 1-year all-cause mortality was comparable for women versus men (HR=1.10; 95% CI, 0.83-1.45). CONCLUSIONS:The proportion of AMI hospitalizations attributable to young patients increased from 1995 to 2014 and was especially pronounced among women. History of hypertension and diabetes among young patients admitted with AMI increased over time as well. Compared with young men, young women presenting with AMI had a lower likelihood of receiving guideline-based AMI therapies. A better understanding of factors underlying these changes is needed to improve care of young patients with AMI.

Dataset Information

Predicting 6-Month Mortality for Older Adults Hospitalized With Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Cohort Study.

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Predicting 6-Month Mortality for Older Adults Hospitalized With Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Cohort Study.

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