Dataset Information

Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: A modeling analysis of King County, WA data.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In late March 2020, a "Stay Home, Stay Healthy" order was issued in Washington State in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. On May 1, a 4-phase reopening plan began. We investigated whether adjunctive prevention strategies would allow less restrictive physical distancing to avoid second epidemic waves and secure safe school reopening.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model, stratifying the population by age, infection status and treatment status to project SARS-CoV-2 transmission during and after the reopening period. The model was parameterized with demographic and contact data from King County, WA and calibrated to confirmed cases, deaths and epidemic peak timing. Adjunctive prevention interventions were simulated assuming different levels of pre-COVID physical interactions (pC_PI) restored.

Results

The best model fit estimated ~35% pC_PI under the lockdown which prevented ~17,000 deaths by May 15. Gradually restoring 75% pC_PI for all age groups between May 15-July 15 would have resulted in ~350 daily deaths by early September 2020. Maintaining <45% pC_PI was required with current testing practices to ensure low levels of daily infections and deaths. Increased testing, isolation of symptomatic infections, and contact tracing permitted 60% pC_PI without significant increases in daily deaths before November and allowed opening of schools with <15 daily deaths. Inpatient antiviral treatment was predicted to reduce deaths significantly without lowering cases or hospitalizations.

Conclusions

We predict that widespread testing, contact tracing and case isolation would allow relaxation of physical distancing, as well as opening of schools, without a surge in local cases and deaths.

SUBMITTER: Bracis C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7695953 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThere are ongoing efforts to eliminate juvenile detention in King County, WA. An essential element of this work is effectively addressing the health needs of youth who are currently detained to improve their wellbeing and reduce further contact with the criminal legal system. This formative study sought to inform adaptation and piloting of an evidence-based systems engineering strategy - the Systems Analysis and Improvement Approach (SAIA) - in a King County juvenile detention center clinic to improve quality and continuity of healthcare services. Our aims were to describe the priority health needs of young people who are involved in Washington's criminal legal system and the current system of healthcare for young people who are detained.MethodsWe conducted nine individual interviews with providers serving youth. We also obtained de-identified quantitative summary reports of quality improvement discussions held between clinic staff and 13 young people who were detained at the time of data collection. Interview transcripts were analyzed using deductive and inductive coding and quantitative data were used to triangulate emergent themes.ResultsProviders identified three priority healthcare cascades for detention-based health services-mental health, substance use, and primary healthcare-and reported that care for these concerns is often introduced for the first time in detention. Interviewees classified incarceration itself as a health hazard, highlighting the paradox of resourcing healthcare quality improvement interventions in an inherently harmful setting. Fractured communication and collaboration across detention- and community-based entities drives systems-level inefficiencies, obstructs access to health and social services for marginalized youth, and fragments the continuum of care for young people establishing care plans while detained in King County. 31% of youth self-reported receiving episodic healthcare prior to detention, 15% reported never having medical care prior to entering detention, and 46% had concerns about finding healthcare services upon release to the community.ConclusionsSystems engineering interventions such as the SAIA may be appropriate and feasible approaches to build systems thinking across and between services, remedy systemic challenges, and ensure necessary information sharing for care continuity. However, more information is needed directly from youth to draw conclusions about effective pathways for healthcare quality improvement.