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Ancient RNA virus epidemics through the lens of recent adaptation in human genomes.

ABSTRACT: Over the course of the last several million years of evolution, humans probably have been plagued by hundreds or perhaps thousands of epidemics. Little is known about such ancient epidemics and a deep evolutionary perspective on current pathogenic threats is lacking. The study of past epidemics has typically been limited in temporal scope to recorded history, and in physical scope to pathogens that left sufficient DNA behind, such as Yersinia pestis during the Great Plague. Host genomes, however, offer an indirect way to detect ancient epidemics beyond the current temporal and physical limits. Arms races with pathogens have shaped the genomes of the hosts by driving a large number of adaptations at many genes, and these signals can be used to detect and further characterize ancient epidemics. Here, we detect the genomic footprints left by ancient viral epidemics that took place in the past approximately 50 000 years in the 26 human populations represented in the 1000 Genomes Project. By using the enrichment in signals of adaptation at approximately 4500 host loci that interact with specific types of viruses, we provide evidence that RNA viruses have driven a particularly large number of adaptive events across diverse human populations. These results suggest that different types of viruses may have exerted different selective pressures during human evolution. Knowledge of these past selective pressures will provide a deeper evolutionary perspective on current pathogenic threats. This article is part of the theme issue 'Insights into health and disease from ancient biomolecules'.

SUBMITTER: Enard D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7702803 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Ancient RNA virus epidemics through the lens of recent adaptation in human genomes.

Enard David D Petrov Dmitri A DA

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 20201005 1812

Over the course of the last several million years of evolution, humans probably have been plagued by hundreds or perhaps thousands of epidemics. Little is known about such ancient epidemics and a deep evolutionary perspective on current pathogenic threats is lacking. The study of past epidemics has typically been limited in temporal scope to recorded history, and in physical scope to pathogens that left sufficient DNA behind, such as <i>Yersinia pestis</i> during the Great Plague. Host genomes, ...[more]

PMID: 33012231

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Project description:Background: Pathogens are often assumed to evolve towards reduced virulence, but counterexamples abound. Faced with a new pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, it is crucial to be able to forecast the case fatality rate (CFR) and the overall disease burden. Considerable effort has been invested towards developing a mathematical framework for predicting virulence evolution. Although many approaches accurately recapitulate complex outcomes, most rely on an assumed trade-off between CFR and infection rate. It is often impractical to empirically validate this constraint for human pathogens. Methods: A compartment model with parameters tuning the degree to which symptomatic individuals are isolated and the duration of immunity is constructed and evaluated at both short timescales and at equilibrium. Results: We reveal kinetic constraints whereby variation of multiple parameters in concert leads to decreased CFR and increased pathogen fitness, whereas independent variation of the parameters decreases pathogen fitness. Smallpox, SARS-CoV-2, and influenza are analyzed as diverse representatives of human respiratory viruses. We show that highly virulent viruses, such as smallpox, are often constrained by the host behavior, whereas moderately virulent viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, appear to be typically constrained by the relationship between the duration of immunity and CFR. Conclusions: Evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in CFR should not be assumed. These results agree with previous work demonstrating an increase in virulence for smallpox and further predict that SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. Herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and viruses with similar life history traits might be unachievable without vaccination. However, partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect on the epidemic dynamics not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by changing the evolutionary trajectory of moderate CFR viruses towards reduced CFR.

Dataset Information

Ancient RNA virus epidemics through the lens of recent adaptation in human genomes.

Publications

Ancient RNA virus epidemics through the lens of recent adaptation in human genomes.

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