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Compound Risks of Hurricane Evacuation Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

ABSTRACT: The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active and included, as of early November, six hurricanes that made landfall in the United States during the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Such an event would necessitate a large-scale evacuation, with implications for the trajectory of the pandemic. Here we model how a hypothetical hurricane evacuation from four counties in southeast Florida would affect COVID-19 case levels. We find that hurricane evacuation increases the total number of COVID-19 cases in both origin and destination locations; however, if transmission rates in destination counties can be kept from rising during evacuation, excess evacuation-induced case numbers can be minimized by directing evacuees to counties experiencing lower COVID-19 transmission rates. Ultimately, the number of excess COVID-19 cases produced by the evacuation depends on the ability of destination counties to meet evacuee needs while minimizing virus exposure through public health directives. These results are relevant to disease transmission during evacuations stemming from additional climate-related hazards such as wildfires and floods.

SUBMITTER: Pei S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7704390 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Compound Risks of Hurricane Evacuation Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

Pei Sen S Dahl Kristina A KA Yamana Teresa K TK Licker Rachel R Shaman Jeffrey J

GeoHealth 20201201 12

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active and included, as of early November, six hurricanes that made landfall in the United States during the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Such an event would necessitate a large-scale evacuation, with implications for the trajectory of the pandemic. Here we model how a hypothetical hurricane evacuation from four counties in southeast Florida would affect COVID-19 case levels. We find that hurricane evacuation increases the ...[more]

PMID: 33299960

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the direct toll of COVID-19 in the United States has been substantial, concerns have also arisen about the indirect effects of the pandemic. Hospitalizations for acute cardiovascular conditions have declined, raising concern that patients may be avoiding hospitals because of fear of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome- coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Other factors, including strain on health care systems, may also have had an indirect toll.ObjectivesThis investigation aimed to evaluate whether population-level deaths due to cardiovascular causes increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsThe authors conducted an observational cohort study using data from the National Center for Health Statistics to evaluate the rate of deaths due to cardiovascular causes after the onset of the pandemic in the United States, from March 18, 2020, to June 2, 2020, relative to the period immediately preceding the pandemic (January 1, 2020 to March 17, 2020). Changes in deaths were compared with the same periods in the previous year.ResultsThere were 397,042 cardiovascular deaths from January 1, 2020, to June 2, 2020. Deaths caused by ischemic heart disease increased nationally after the onset of the pandemic in 2020, compared with changes over the same period in 2019 (ratio of the relative change in deaths per 100,000 in 2020 vs. 2019: 1.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 1.18). An increase was also observed for deaths caused by hypertensive disease (1.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.09 to 1.26), but not for heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, or other diseases of the circulatory system. New York City experienced a large relative increase in deaths caused by ischemic heart disease (2.39, 95% confidence interval: 1.39 to 4.09) and hypertensive diseases (2.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.52 to 4.56) during the pandemic. More modest increases in deaths caused by these conditions occurred in the remainder of New York State, New Jersey, Michigan, and Illinois but not in Massachusetts or Louisiana.ConclusionsThere was an increase in deaths caused by ischemic heart disease and hypertensive diseases in some regions of the United States during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings suggest that the pandemic may have had an indirect toll on patients with cardiovascular disease.

Project description:ImportanceThe ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has posed unique challenges to orthodontic profession by adversely impacting provision of in-office orthodontic care due to prevailing uncertainty around risks pertaining to splatter and 'aerosol-generating procedures' (AGPs). This review aims to provide an insight into the prevailing and emerging evidence informing potential risks related to splatter and AGPs, and risk mitigation strategies employed for reducing the potential risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from dental bioaerosols.MethodsPubMed, Google Scholar, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, LILACS, WHO COVID-19 databases and preprint databases were searched for eligible English language publications. Citation chasing was undertaken up until the review date of 4 January 2021. Study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment was undertaken independently in duplicate, or else by consultation with a third author.ResultsFollowing filter application and duplicates removed, a total of 13 articles assessing procedural mitigation measures were included. Seven included studies revealed overall low-risk of bias. The overall risk varied from unclear to high for rest of the studies, with the most concerning domains being blinding of the participants and the personnel and blinding of the outcome assessors. Accumulated consensual evidence points towards the use of dental suction devices with wide bore aspirating tips as effective procedural mitigation strategies. Variations in the literature can be observed concerning aerosol transmission associated with water spray use during debonding. Emerging direct evidence consistently supports adjunctive use of pre-procedural povidone-iodine mouthrinse to mitigate direct transmission risk in the orthodontic practice.ConclusionsA thorough risk assessment concerning AGPs and implementation of consistent and evidence-based procedural mitigation strategies may play an indispensable role in navigating optimal orthodontic practice through unforeseen similar pandemic threats. High-quality robust research focussing on more biologically relevant models of dental bioaerosols in orthodontic settings is warranted.

Dataset Information

Compound Risks of Hurricane Evacuation Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

Publications

Compound Risks of Hurricane Evacuation Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

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