Dataset Information

Outcomes of Medicaid home- and community-based long-term services relative to nursing home care among dual eligibles.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To provide the first plausibly causal national estimates of health outcomes for older dual-eligible recipients of Medicaid HCBS relative to nursing home care and to explore possible mechanisms for the effect.

Data sources

We use 2005 and 2012 Medicaid Analytic eXtract (MAX), a national compilation of Medicaid claims, merged with Medicare claims to identify hospital admissions, our main outcome variable.

Study design

We model the effects of HCBS using a longitudinal instrumental variables framework. To address the endogeneity of HCBS receipt, we instrument for it using the county percentage of nonelderly long-term care users who receive HCBS. The percentage of nonelderly users is highly predictive of HCBS use for an elderly beneficiary, but because the instrument was derived from a separate population, the exclusion restriction is unlikely to be violated.

Population studied

1,312,498 older adults (65+) dually enrolled in Medicaid and Medicare and are using long-term care. We also examine heterogeneity of effects by race/ethnicity and the presence of dementia.

Principal findings

HCBS users have 10 percentage points higher (P < .01) annual rates of hospitalization than their nursing home counterparts when selection bias is addressed; rates of potentially avoidable hospitalizations are 3 percentage points higher (P < .01). These differences persist across races, dementia status, and intensity of HCBS spending.

Conclusions

Shifting Medicaid long-term care funding for older adults from nursing homes to HCBS, while well-motivated, results in the unintended consequence of substantially higher hospitalization rates for older dual eligibles. The quality and/or quantity of services may be inadequate for some HCBS recipients. Hospitalizations are costly to Medicare but also to the HCBS recipient in terms of stress and risks. Although consumer preferences to remain at home may outweigh poor outcomes of HCBS, the full costs and benefits need to be considered. HCBS outcomes-not just expansion-need more attention.

SUBMITTER: Konetzka RT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7704475 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceNew York State's Medicaid managed long-term care (MLTC) program expanded access to home- and community-based services, providing an alternative to nursing home care for people with dementia. Between 2012 and 2015, the state implemented mandatory MLTC for dual Medicare and Medicaid enrollees requiring more than 120 days of community-based long-term care.ObjectiveTo evaluate changes in nursing home use among older adults with dementia following MLTC implementation.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used longitudinal data from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2019, from the Minimum Data Set and Medicare administrative data. The study sample included New York State Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older with dementia. New York City residents were excluded due to insufficient pre-study period data. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2019.ExposureMandatory MLTC enrollment.Main outcomes and measuresLongitudinal models were used to evaluate changes in annual days of nursing home use following the staggered implementation of MLTC across 13 regions of the state. Two models were estimated: (1) a logistic regression model for any nursing home use in a given year and (2) a linear regression model of total nursing home days, conditional on any nursing home use. Models included annual event-time indicators specified as years until or since MLTC implementation. To capture MLTC effects for dual enrollees relative to non-dual Medicare enrollees, models included interaction terms for dual enrollment and event-time indicators.ResultsThis sample included 463 947 Medicare beneficiaries with dementia who lived in New York State between 2011 and 2019 (50.2% younger than 85 years; 64.4% women). Implementation of MLTC was associated with lower odds of nursing home use among dual enrollees, ranging from 8% lower odds 2 years post implementation (adjusted odds ratio, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.86-0.98]) to 24% lower odds 6 years post implementation (adjusted odds ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.69-0.84]). Compared with a scenario of no MLTC, MLTC implementation was associated with an 8% reduction in annual days of nursing home use between 2013 and 2019 (mean, -5.6 [95% CI, -6.1 to -5.1] days per year).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this cohort study suggest that implementation of mandatory MLTC in New York State was associated with less nursing home use among dual enrollees with dementia and that MLTC may help prevent or delay nursing home placement among older adults with dementia.