Project description:BackgroundReported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases underestimate severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. We conducted a national probability survey of US households to estimate cumulative incidence adjusted for antibody waning.MethodsFrom August-December 2020 a random sample of US addresses were mailed a survey and self-collected nasal swabs and dried blood spot cards. One adult household member completed the survey and mail specimens for viral detection and total (immunoglobulin [Ig] A, IgM, IgG) nucleocapsid antibody by a commercial, emergency use authorization-approved antigen capture assay. We estimated cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 adjusted for waning antibodies and calculated reported fraction (RF) and infection fatality ratio (IFR). Differences in seropositivity among demographic, geographic, and clinical subgroups were explored.ResultsAmong 39 500 sampled households, 4654 respondents provided responses. Cumulative incidence adjusted for waning was 11.9% (95% credible interval [CrI], 10.5%-13.5%) as of 30 October 2020. We estimated 30 332 842 (CrI, 26 703 753-34 335 338) total infections in the US adult population by 30 October 2020. RF was 22.3% and IFR was 0.85% among adults. Black non-Hispanics (Prevalence ratio (PR) 2.2) and Hispanics (PR, 3.1) were more likely than White non-Hispanics to be seropositive.ConclusionsOne in 8 US adults had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by October 2020; however, few had been accounted for in public health reporting. The COVID-19 pandemic is likely substantially underestimated by reported cases. Disparities in COVID-19 by race observed among reported cases cannot be attributed to differential diagnosis or reporting of infections in population subgroups.
Project description:BackgroundRift Valley Fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that can cause severe haemorrhagic fevers in humans and high mortality rates and abortions in livestock. On 10 December 2020, the Uganda Ministry of Health was notified of the death of a 25-year-old male who tested RVF-positive by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) at the Uganda Virus Research Institute. We investigated to determine the scope of the outbreak, identify exposure factors, and institute control measures.MethodsA suspected case was acute-onset fever (or axillary temperature > 37.5 °C) and ≥ 2 of: headache, muscle or joint pain, unexpected bleeding, and any gastroenteritis symptom in a resident of Sembabule District from 1 November to 31 December 2020. A confirmed case was the detection of RVF virus nucleic acid by RT-PCR or serum IgM antibodies detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). A suspected animal case was livestock (cattle, sheep, goats) with any history of abortion. A confirmed animal case was the detection of anti-RVF IgM antibodies by ELISA. We took blood samples from herdsmen who worked with the index case for RVF testing and conducted interviews to understand more about exposures and clinical characteristics. We reviewed medical records and conducted an active community search to identify additional suspects. Blood samples from animals on the index case's farm and two neighbouring farms were taken for RVF testing.ResultsThe index case regularly drank raw cow milk. None of the seven herdsmen who worked with him nor his brother's wife had symptoms; however, a blood sample from one herdsman was positive for anti-RVF-specific IgM and IgG. Neither the index case nor the additional confirmed case-patient slaughtered or butchered any sick/dead animals nor handled abortus; however, some of the other herdsmen did report high-risk exposures to animal body fluids and drinking raw milk. Among 55 animal samples collected (2 males and 53 females), 29 (53%) were positive for anti-RVF-IgG.ConclusionsTwo human RVF cases occurred in Sembabule District during December 2020, likely caused by close interaction between infected cattle and humans. A district-wide animal serosurvey, animal vaccination, and community education on infection prevention practices campaign could inform RVF exposures and reduce disease burden.
Project description:ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemiology in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario, Canada.MethodsUsing data through December 1, 2020, we estimated time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using EpiEstim package in R, and calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR) across the 3 provinces.ResultsIn Ontario, 76% (92 745/121 745) of cases were in Toronto, Peel, York, Ottawa, and Durham; in Alberta, 82% (49 878/61 169) in Calgary and Edmonton; in British Columbia, 90% (31 142/34 699) in Fraser and Vancouver Coastal. Across 3 provinces, Rt dropped to ≤ 1 after April. In Ontario, Rt would remain < 1 in April if congregate-setting-associated cases were excluded. Over summer, Rt maintained < 1 in Ontario, ~1 in British Columbia, and ~1 in Alberta, except early July when Rt was > 1. In all 3 provinces, Rt was > 1, reflecting surges in case count from September through November. Compared with British Columbia (684.2 cases per 100 000), Alberta (IRR = 2.0; 1399.3 cases per 100 000) and Ontario (IRR = 1.2; 835.8 cases per 100 000) had a higher cumulative case count per 100 000 population.ConclusionsAlberta and Ontario had a higher incidence rate than British Columbia, but Rt trajectories were similar across all 3 provinces.
Project description:ImportanceThe second year of the COVID-19 pandemic saw periods of dire health care resource limitations in the US, sometimes prompting official declarations of crisis, but little is known about how these conditions were experienced by frontline clinicians.ObjectiveTo describe the experiences of US clinicians practicing under conditions of extreme resource limitation during the second year of the pandemic.Design, setting, and participantsThis qualitative inductive thematic analysis was based on interviews with physicians and nurses providing direct patient care at US health care institutions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Interviews were conducted between December 28, 2020, and December 9, 2021.ExposureCrisis conditions as reflected by official state declarations and/or media reports.Main outcomes and measuresClinicians' experiences as obtained through interviews.ResultsInterviews with 23 clinicians (21 physicians and 2 nurses) who were practicing in California, Idaho, Minnesota, or Texas were included. Of the 23 total participants, 21 responded to a background survey to assess participant demographics; among these individuals, the mean (SD) age was 49 (7.3) years, 12 (57.1%) were men, and 18 (85.7%) self-identified as White. Three themes emerged in qualitative analysis. The first theme describes isolation. Clinicians had a limited view on what was happening outside their immediate practice setting and perceived a disconnect between official messaging about crisis conditions and their own experience. In the absence of overarching system-level support, responsibility for making challenging decisions about how to adapt practices and allocate resources often fell to frontline clinicians. The second theme describes in-the-moment decision-making. Formal crisis declarations did little to guide how resources were allocated in clinical practice. Clinicians adapted practice by drawing on their clinical judgment but described feeling ill equipped to handle some of the operationally and ethically complex situations that fell to them. The third theme describes waning motivation. As the pandemic persisted, the strong sense of mission, duty, and purpose that had fueled extraordinary efforts earlier in the pandemic was eroded by unsatisfying clinical roles, misalignment between clinicians' own values and institutional goals, more distant relationships with patients, and moral distress.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this qualitative study suggest that institutional plans to protect frontline clinicians from the responsibility for allocating scarce resources may be unworkable, especially in a state of chronic crisis. Efforts are needed to directly integrate frontline clinicians into institutional emergency responses and support them in ways that reflect the complex and dynamic realities of health care resource limitation.