Animal Rabies Surveillance, China, 2004-2018.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Feng Y
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7706947 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:CaliciNet China, a network of provincial, county, and city laboratories coordinated by the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was launched in October 2016 to monitor the epidemiology and genotype distribution of norovirus outbreaks in China. During October 2016-September 2018, a total of 556 norovirus outbreaks were reported, and positive fecal samples from 470 (84.5%) outbreaks were genotyped. Most of these outbreaks were associated with person-to-person transmission (95.1%), occurred in childcare centers or schools (78.2%), and were reported during November-March of each year (63.5%). During the 2-year study period, 81.2% of all norovirus outbreaks were typed as GII.2[P16]. In China, most norovirus outbreaks are reported by childcare centers or schools; GII.2[P16] is the predominant genotype. Ongoing surveillance by CaliciNet China will provide information about the evolving norovirus genotype distribution and outbreak characteristics important for the development of effective interventions, including vaccines.
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Project description:With the re-emergence of brucellosis in mainland China since the mid-1990s, an increasing threat to public health tends to become even more violent, advanced warning plays a pivotal role in the control of brucellosis. However, a model integrating the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with Error-Trend-Seasonal (ETS) methods remains unexplored in the epidemiological prediction. The hybrid ARIMA-ETS model based on discrete wavelet transform was hence constructed to assess the epidemics of human brucellosis from January 2004 to February 2018 in mainland China. The preferred hybrid model including the best-performing ARIMA method for approximation-forecasting and the best-fitting ETS approach for detail-forecasting is evidently superior to the standard ARIMA and ETS techniques in both three in-sample simulating and out-of-sample forecasting horizons in terms of the minimum performance indices of the root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean error rate and mean absolute percentage error. Whereafter, an ahead prediction from March to December in 2018 displays a dropping trend compared to the preceding years. But being still present, in various trends, in the present or future. This hybrid model can be highlighted in predicting the temporal trends of human brucellosis, which may act as the potential for far-reaching implications for prevention and control of this disease.
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Project description:BackgroundMaternal education is universally recognised as a major factor in positive societal indicators (health, wellbeing, overall education, etc.) and a country's growth and economic sustainability, yet the underlying factors contributing to maternal education have not been widely investigated, especially in developing countries.ObjectiveThis study investigated the 15-year trend of maternal education in Bangladesh (2004-2018) to identify the factors contributing to maternal education.MethodThis study used publicly available cross-data from five consecutive Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (2004, 2007, 2011, 2014 and 2018). Level of maternal education was grouped as 'no education', 'incomplete primary', 'complete primary', 'incomplete secondary', 'complete secondary' and 'higher education' (reference group). The differences in factors/exposure variables suspected to contribute to maternal education were measured for these groups for 2004-2018, and a survey multinomial logistic regression was performed to estimate the explanatory value of these factors.ResultsFrom 2004-2018, there was a 62% gross reduction of the no education group and a 61% gross increase in the higher education group. A gross increase was also observed for complete secondary (49%), incomplete secondary (39%) and complete primary education (14%). In multivariate analysis, in rural areas, in 2018, the probability of a woman being in the complete primary, incomplete primary or no education groups was increased (adjusted relative risk ratio: 1.21, 1.40 and 1.59), compared to 2004 (0.73, 1.09, 1.12), respectively. From 2004-2018, the factor of no television watching reduced the probability of maternal education levels. Having a husband/partner who had no education increased the probability of a woman's education level. The probability of all maternal education levels decreased across all wealth index groups.ConclusionThe data suggest that average maternal education level in Bangladesh increased from 2004-2018. However, an integrated effort is required to improve factors associated with maternal education to both increase maternal education and Bangladesh's long-term sustainability.
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Project description:In 2004, the raccoon rabies virus variant emerged in Ohio beyond an area where oral rabies vaccine had been distributed to prevent westward spread of this variant. Our genetic investigation indicates that this outbreak may have begun several years before 2004 and may have originated within the vaccination zone.
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Project description:BackgroundHuman rabies is a significant public health concern in mainland China. However, the neglect of rabies expansion and scarce analyses of the dynamics have made the spatiotemporal spread pattern of human rabies and its determinants being poorly understood.MethodsWe collected geographic locations and timeline of reported human rabies cases, rabies sequences and socioeconomic variables for the years 2004-2013, and integrated multidisciplinary approaches, including epidemiological characterization, hotspots identification, risk factors analysis and phylogeographic inference, to explore the spread pattern of human rabies in mainland China during the last decade.ResultsThe results show that human rabies distribution and hotspots were expanding from southeastern regions to north or west regions, which could be associated with the evolution of the virus, especially the clade I-G. A Panel Poisson Regression analysis reveals that human rabies incidences had significant correlation with the education level, GDP per capita, temperature at one-month lag and canine rabies outbreak at two-month lag.ConclusionsThe reduction in the overall human rabies incidence was accompanied by a westward and northward expansion of the circulating region in mainland China. Higher risk of human rabies was associated with lower level of education and economic status. New clades of rabies, especial Clade I-G, played an important role in recent spread. Our findings provide valuable information for rabies control and prevention in the future.
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Project description:BackgroundAlthough visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a disease caused by parasites, is controlled in most provinces in China, it is still a serious public health problem and remains fundamentally uncontrolled in some northwest provinces and autonomous regions. The objective of this study is to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of VL in Sichuan Province, Gansu Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China from 2004 to 2018 and to identify the risk areas for VL transmission.MethodsSpatiotemporal models were applied to explore the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of VL and the association between VL and meteorological factors in western China from 2004 to 2018. Geographic information of patients from the National Diseases Reporting Information System operated by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention was defined according to the address code from the surveillance data.ResultsDuring our study period, nearly 90% of cases occurred in some counties in three western regions (Sichuan Province, Gansu Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region), and a significant spatial clustering pattern was observed. With our spatiotemporal model, the transmission risk, autoregressive risk and epidemic risk of these counties during our study period were also well predicted. The number of VL cases in three regions of western China concentrated on a few of counties. VL in Kashi Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is still serious prevalent, and integrated control measures must be taken in different endemic areas.ConclusionsThe number of VL cases in three regions of western China concentrated on a few of counties. VL in Kashi Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is still serious prevalent, and integrated control measures must be taken in different endemic areas. Our findings will strengthen the VL control programme in China.
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Project description:Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), caused by hantavirus, is a serious public health problem in China. Despite intensive countermeasures including Patriotic Health Campaign, rodent control and vaccination in affected areas, HFRS is still a potential public health threat in China, with more than 10,000 new cases per year. Previous epidemiological evidence suggested that meteorological factors could influence HFRS incidence, but the studies were mainly limited to a specific city or region in China. This study aims to evaluate the association between monthly HFRS cases and meteorological change at the country level using a multivariate distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) from 2004 to 2018. The results from both univariate and multivariate models showed a non-linear cumulative relative risk relationship between meteorological factors (with a lag of 0-6 months) such as mean temperature (Tmean), precipitation, relative humidity (RH), sunshine hour (SH), wind speed (WS) and HFRS incidence. The risk for HFRS cases increased steeply as the Tmean between - 23 and 14.79 °C, SH between 179.4 and 278.4 h and RH remaining above 69% with 50-95 mm precipitation and 1.70-2.00 m/s WS. In conclusion, meteorological factors such as Tmean and RH showed delayed-effects on the increased risk of HFRS in the study and the lag varies across climate factors. Temperature with a lag of 6 months (RR = 3.05) and precipitation with a lag of 0 months (RR = 2.08) had the greatest impact on the incidence of HFRS.
| S-EPMC9681842 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe long-term trend in cancer death in a rapidly developing country provides information for cancer prophylaxis. Here, we aimed to identify the trends in cancer mortality in China during the 2004-2018 period.MethodsUsing raw data from the national mortality surveillance system of China, we assessed the mortalities of all cancer and site-specific cancers during the 2004-2018 period. The participants were divided into three age groups: ≥65 years, 40-64 years, and ≤39 years. Changing trends in cancer death by gender, residency, and tumor location were estimated using fitting joinpoint models to log-transformed crude mortality rates (CMRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs).ResultsCancer death accounted for 24% of all-cause of death in China during 2014-2018. The CMR of all cancer was 150.0 per 100,000 persons. Cancer was the leading cause of death in the population <65 years. The six major cancer types (lung/bronchus cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer, esophagus cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer) accounted for 75.85% of all cancer deaths. The CMR of all cancer increased while the ASMR decreased during 2014-2018 (P < 0.001). Lung/bronchus cancer and liver cancer were the leading causes of cancer death in the population <65 years, accounting for 45.31% (CMR) and 44.35% (ASMR) of all cancer death, respectively. The ASMR of liver cancer was higher in the 40-64 years population than in the ≥65 years population, in contrast to the other five major cancers. The ASMRs of liver cancer, stomach cancer, and esophagus cancer decreased although they were higher in rural residents than in urban residents; the ASMRs of lung/bronchus cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer increased in rural residents although they were higher in urban residents than in rural residents during 2014-2018.ConclusionAlthough the ASMR of all cancer decreased in China during 2004-2018, lung/bronchus cancer and liver cancer remained the leading causes of cancer-related premature death. Lung/bronchus cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer increased in rural residents.
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Project description:BackgroundAn evaluation of postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) surveillance has not been conducted in over 10 years in the United States. An accurate assessment would be important to understand current rabies trends and inform public health preparedness and response to human rabies.Methodology/principle findingsTo understand PEP surveillance, we sent a survey to public health leads for rabies in 50 U.S. states, Puerto Rico, Washington DC, Philadelphia, and New York City. Of leads from 54 jurisdictions, 39 (72%) responded to the survey; 12 reported having PEP-specific surveillance, five had animal bite surveillance that included data about PEP, four had animal bite surveillance without data about PEP, and 18 (46%) had neither. Although 12 jurisdictions provided data about PEP use, poor data quality and lack of national representativeness prevented use of this data to derive a national-level PEP estimate. We used national-level and state specific data from the Healthcare Cost & Utilization Project (HCUP) to estimate the number of people who received PEP based on emergency department (ED) visits. The estimated annual average of initial ED visits for PEP administration during 2012-2017 in the United States was 46,814 (SE: 1,697), costing upwards of 165 million USD. State-level ED data for initial visits for administration of PEP for rabies exposure using HCUP data was compared to state-level surveillance data from Maryland, Vermont, and Georgia between 2012-2017. In all states, state-level surveillance data was consistently lower than estimates of initial ED visits, suggesting even states with robust PEP surveillance may not adequately capture individuals who receive PEP.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that making PEP a nationally reportable condition may not be feasible. Other methods of tracking administration of PEP such as syndromic surveillance or identification of sentinel states should be considered to obtain an accurate assessment.
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Project description:Evidence on the long-term influence of climatic variables on pertussis is limited. This study aims to explore the long-term quantitative relationship between weather variability and pertussis. Data on the monthly number of pertussis cases and weather parameters in Chongqing in the period of 2004-2018 were collected. Then, we used a negative binomial multivariable regression model and cointegration testing to examine the association of variations in monthly meteorological parameters and pertussis. Descriptive statistics exhibited that the pertussis incidence rose from 0.251 per 100,000 people in 2004 to 3.661 per 100,000 persons in 2018, and pertussis was a seasonal illness, peaked in spring and summer. The results from the regression model that allowed for the long-term trends, seasonality, autoregression, and delayed effects after correcting for overdispersion showed that a 1 hPa increment in the delayed one-month air pressure contributed to a 3.559% (95% CI 0.746-6.293%) reduction in the monthly number of pertussis cases; a 10 mm increment in the monthly aggregate precipitation, a 1 °C increment in the monthly average temperature, and a 1 m/s increment in the monthly average wind velocity resulted in 3.641% (95% CI 0.960-6.330%), 19.496% (95% CI 2.368-39.490%), and 3.812 (95% CI 1.243-11.690)-fold increases in the monthly number of pertussis cases, respectively. The roles of the mentioned weather parameters in the transmission of pertussis were also evidenced by a sensitivity analysis. The cointegration testing suggested a significant value among variables. Climatic factors, particularly monthly temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and wind velocity, play a role in the transmission of pertussis. This finding will be of great help in understanding the epidemic trends of pertussis in the future, and weather variability should be taken into account in the prevention and control of pertussis.
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