Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission-Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Moss R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7706956 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Public health measures to reduce COVID-19 transmission include masking in public places, physical distancing, staying home when ill, avoiding high-risk locations, using a contact tracing app, and being willing to take a COVID-19 vaccine. However, adoption of these measures varies greatly. We aimed to improve health messaging to increase adherence to public health behaviours to reduce COVID-19 transmission by: 1) determining attitudes towards public health measures and current behaviours; 2) identifying barriers to following public health measures; and, 3) identifying public health communication strategies. We recruited participants from a random panel of 3000 phone numbers across Alberta to fill a predetermined quota: age (18-29; 30-59; 60+ years), geographic location (urban; rural), and whether they had school-age children. Two researchers coded and themed all transcripts. We performed content analysis and in-depth thematic analysis. Nine focus groups were conducted with 2-8 participants/group in August-September, 2020. Several themes were identified: 1) importance of public health measures; 2) compliance with public health measures; 3) critiques of public health messaging; and 4) suggestions for improving public health messaging. Physical distancing and masking were seen as more important than using a contact tracing app. There were mixed views around willingness to take COVID-19 vaccine. Current public health messaging was perceived as conflicting. Participants felt that consistent messaging and using social media to reach younger people would be helpful. In conclusion, these findings provide insights that can be used to inform targeted (e.g., by age, current behaviour) public health communications to encourage behaviors that reduce COVID-19 transmission.
| S-EPMC7895406 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Australia is canine rabies free but free-roaming, domestic dog populations in remote northern communities are at risk of an incursion due to proximity to rabies-endemic south-east Asia. Unrestricted contact between dogs could facilitate rabies spread following an incursion, and increase the impact on both dogs and people. Whilst dog vaccination is the foundation of rabies prevention, control strategies could be enhanced by understanding the temporal pattern of roaming and associated risk factors, so that movement restrictions can be targeted. Global positioning system datasets from 132 dogs in eight Indigenous communities in the Torres Strait and Northern Peninsula Area (NPA) of Australia were analysed using regression methods. The influence of risk factors (including age, sex, location, season and hour of day) on dogs' distance from their residences were assessed. Dogs roamed furthest in the NPA and during the dry season. Daily peaks in mean roaming distance were observed at 1000-1100?hrs and 1700-1800?hrs in the Torres Strait, and 1700-1800?hrs in the NPA. These findings demonstrate that understanding community-specific temporal roaming patterns can inform targeted movement restrictions during an outbreak of rabies in remote communities in northern Australia.
| S-EPMC6797733 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Social distancing is one of the community mitigation measures that may be recommended during influenza pandemics. Social distancing can reduce virus transmission by increasing physical distance or reducing frequency of congregation in socially dense community settings, such as schools or workplaces. We conducted a systematic review to assess the evidence that social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces reduces or slows influenza transmission. METHODS:Electronic searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, CINAHL, NIOSHTIC-2, and EconLit to identify studies published in English from January 1, 2000, through May 3, 2017. Data extraction was done by two reviewers independently. A narrative synthesis was performed. RESULTS:Fifteen studies, representing 12 modeling and three epidemiological, met the eligibility criteria. The epidemiological studies showed that social distancing was associated with a reduction in influenza-like illness and seroconversion to 2009 influenza A (H1N1). However, the overall risk of bias in the epidemiological studies was serious. The modeling studies estimated that workplace social distancing measures alone produced a median reduction of 23% in the cumulative influenza attack rate in the general population. It also delayed and reduced the peak influenza attack rate. The reduction in the cumulative attack rate was more pronounced when workplace social distancing was combined with other nonpharmaceutical or pharmaceutical interventions. However, the effectiveness was estimated to decline with higher basic reproduction number values, delayed triggering of workplace social distancing, or lower compliance. CONCLUSIONS:Modeling studies support social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces, but there is a paucity of well-designed epidemiological studies. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER:PROSPERO registration # CRD42017065310.
| S-EPMC5907354 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recent novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan City of Hubei province in China infected nearly 70,000 individuals and killed more than 1700 people within a short span of time leading to global pandemic. The disease is now spread to 26 countries in Asia, North America, Europe and Australasia. The virus is spreading rapidly to Asia-pacific and Southeast Asian countries. The disease is posing a serious threat to human population and has devastating impact on public health and economy. So far 3 Indians are infected and India is at risk of rapid spread of the disease because of its geographical location and other favorable conditions. With a poorer global health security index compared to China (India-57 and China-51), any such situation will have worse outcome. In near future there are also possibilities of similar kind of disease outbreak caused by new strains of coronaviruses due to factors like species jump of new viruses, high population density and inadequate medical facilities. In this short review we have highlighted the risk factors and transmission dynamics of coronaviruses that may pose a serious threat to India. We have also discussed about the possible preventive measure our country should take to control any such outbreak situation.
| S-EPMC7167493 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPublic support of public health measures including physical distancing, masking, staying home while sick, avoiding crowded indoor spaces and contact tracing/exposure notification applications remains critical for reducing spread of COVID-19. The aim of our work was to understand current behaviours and attitudes towards public health measures as well as barriers individuals face in following public health measures. We also sought to identify attitudes persons have regarding a COVID-19 vaccine and reasons why they may not accept a vaccine.MethodsA cross-sectional online survey was conducted in August 2020, in Alberta, Canada in persons 18 years and older. This survey evaluated current behaviours, barriers and attitudes towards public health measures and a COVID-19 vaccine. Cluster analysis was used to identify key patterns that summarize data variations among observations.ResultsOf the 60 total respondents, the majority of persons were always or often physically distancing (73%), masking (65%) and staying home while sick (67%). Bars/pubs/lounges or nightclubs were visited rarely or never by 63% of respondents. Persons identified staying home while sick to provide the highest benefit (83%) in reducing spread of COVID-19. There were a large proportion of persons who had not downloaded or used a contact tracing/exposure notification app (77%) and who would not receive a COVID-19 vaccine when available (20%) or were unsure (12%). Reporting health authorities as most trusted sources of health information was associated with greater percentage of potential uptake of vaccine but not related to contact tracing app download and use. Individuals with lower concern of getting and spreading COVID-19 showed the least uptake of public health measures except for avoiding public places such as bars. Lower concern regarding COVID-19 was also associated with more negative responses to taking a potential COVID-19 vaccine.ConclusionThese results suggest informational frames and themes focusing on individual risks, highlighting concern for COVID-19 and targeting improving trust for health authorities may be most effective in increasing public health measures. With the ultimate goal of preventing spread of COVID-19, understanding persons' attitudes towards both public health measures and a COVID-19 vaccine remains critical to addressing barriers and implementing targeted interventions and messaging to improve uptake.
| S-EPMC8058588 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We reviewed the timeline of key policies for control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and determined their impact on the epidemic and hospital burden in South Korea. Using a discrete stochastic transmission model, we estimated that multilevel policies, including extensive testing, contact tracing, and quarantine, reduced contact rates by 90% and rapidly decreased the epidemic in Daegu and nationwide during February‒March 2020. Absence of these prompt responses could have resulted in a >10-fold increase in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by May 15, 2020, relative to the status quo. The model suggests that reallocation of persons who have mild or asymptomatic cases to community treatment centers helped avoid overwhelming hospital capacity and enabled healthcare workers to provide care for more severely and critically ill patients in hospital beds and negative-pressure intensive care units. As small outbreaks continue to occur, contact tracing and maintenance of hospital capacity are needed.
| S-EPMC8544960 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We evaluated adverse drug events (ADEs) by chart review in a random national sample of 428 veterans with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who received tocilizumab (n = 173 of 428). ADEs (median time, 5 days) occurred in 51 of 173 (29%) and included hepatoxicity (n = 29) and infection (n = 13). Concomitant medication discontinuation occurred in 22% of ADE patients; mortality was 39%.
| S-EPMC8160489 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWashington, District of Columbia lowered severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission in its large jail while community incidence was still high.MethodsCoordinated clinical and operational interventions brought new cases to near zero.ResultsAggressive infection control and underlying jail architecture can promote correctional coronavirus disease 2019 management.ConclusionsMore intensive monitoring could help confirm that in-house transmission is truly zero.
| S-EPMC8661082 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe evaluated features of HIV transmission networks involving persons diagnosed during incident HIV infection (IHI) to assess network-based opportunities to curtail onward transmission.MethodsTransmission networks were constructed using partial pol sequences reported to North Carolina surveillance among persons with recent (2014-2018) and past (<2014) HIV diagnoses. IHI were defined as documented acute infections or seroconversion. Demographic and virologic features of HIV genetic clusters (<1.5% pairwise genetic distance) involving ≥ 1 IHI were assessed. Persons with viral genetic links and who had diagnoses >90 days prior to an IHI were further characterized. We assessed named partner outcomes among IHI index persons using contact tracing data.FindingsOf 4,405 HIV diagnoses 2014-2018 with sequences, there were 323 (7%) IHI index persons; most were male (88%), Black (65%), young (68% <30 years), and reported sex with men (MSM) risk (79%). Index persons were more likely to be cluster members compared to non-index persons diagnosed during the same period (72% vs. 49%). In total, 162 clusters were identified involving 233 IHI, 577 recent diagnoses, and 163 past diagnoses. Most IHI cases (53%) had viral linkages to ≥1 previously diagnosed person without evidence of HIV viral suppression in the year prior to the diagnosis of the IHI index. In contact tracing, only 53% IHI cases named an HIV-positive contact, resulting in 0.5 previously diagnosed persons detected per IHI investigated. When combined with viral analyses, the detection rate of viremic previously diagnosed persons increased to 1.3.InterpretationIntegrating public health with molecular epidemiology, revealed that more than half of IHI have viral links to persons with previously diagnosed unsuppressed HIV infection which was largely unrecognized by traditional contact tracing. Enhanced partner services to support engagement and retention in HIV care and improved case finding supported by rapid phylogenetic analysis are tools to substantially reduce onward HIV transmission.
| S-EPMC8225702 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundModelling COVID-19 transmission at live events and public gatherings is essential to controlling the probability of subsequent outbreaks and communicating to participants their personalized risk. Yet, despite the fast-growing body of literature on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, current risk models either neglect contextual information including vaccination rates or disease prevalence or do not attempt to quantitatively model transmission.ObjectiveThis paper attempted to bridge this gap by providing informative risk metrics for live public events, along with a measure of their uncertainty.MethodsBuilding upon existing models, our approach ties together 3 main components: (1) reliable modelling of the number of infectious cases at the time of the event, (2) evaluation of the efficiency of pre-event screening, and (3) modelling of the event's transmission dynamics and their uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulations.ResultsWe illustrated the application of our pipeline for a concert at the Royal Albert Hall and highlighted the risk's dependency on factors such as prevalence, mask wearing, and event duration. We demonstrate how this event held on 3 different dates (August 20, 2020; January 20, 2021; and March 20, 2021) would likely lead to transmission events that are similar to community transmission rates (0.06 vs 0.07, 2.38 vs 2.39, and 0.67 vs 0.60, respectively). However, differences between event and background transmissions substantially widened in the upper tails of the distribution of the number of infections (as denoted by their respective 99th quantiles: 1 vs 1, 19 vs 8, and 6 vs 3, respectively, for our 3 dates), further demonstrating that sole reliance on vaccination and antigen testing to gain entry would likely significantly underestimate the tail risk of the event.ConclusionsDespite the unknowns surrounding COVID-19 transmission, our estimation pipeline opens the discussion on contextualized risk assessment by combining the best tools at hand to assess the order of magnitude of the risk. Our model can be applied to any future event and is presented in a user-friendly RShiny interface. Finally, we discussed our model's limitations as well as avenues for model evaluation and improvement.
| S-EPMC8638785 | biostudies-literature