Dataset Information

Measuring the Benefits of Mass Vaccination Programs in the United States.

ABSTRACT: Since the late 1940s, mass vaccination programs in the USA have contributed to the significantly reduced morbidity and mortality of infectious diseases. To assist the evaluation of the benefits of mass vaccination programs, the number of individuals who would have suffered death or permanent disability in the USA in 2014, had mass vaccination never been implemented, was estimated for measles, mumps, rubella, tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis, polio, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), hepatitis B, varicella, and human papillomavirus (HPV). The estimates accounted for mortality and morbidity trends observed for these infections prior to mass vaccination and the impact of advances in standard of living and health care. The estimates also considered populations with and without known factors leading to an elevated risk of permanent injury from infection. Mass vaccination prevented an estimated 20 million infections and 12,000 deaths and permanent disabilities in 2014, including 10,800 deaths and permanent disabilities in persons at elevated risk. Though 9000 of the estimated prevented deaths were from liver cirrhosis and cancer, mass vaccination programs have not, at this point, shown empirical impacts on the prevalence of those conditions. Future studies can refine these estimates, assess the impact of adjusting estimation assumptions, and consider additional risk factors that lead to heightened risk of permanent harm from infection.

SUBMITTER: Magno H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7712487 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Measuring the Benefits of Mass Vaccination Programs in the United States.

Magno Hector H Golomb Beatrice B

Vaccines 20200929 4

Since the late 1940s, mass vaccination programs in the USA have contributed to the significantly reduced morbidity and mortality of infectious diseases. To assist the evaluation of the benefits of mass vaccination programs, the number of individuals who would have suffered death or permanent disability in the USA in 2014, had mass vaccination never been implemented, was estimated for measles, mumps, rubella, tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis, polio, <i>Haemophilus influenzae</i> type b (Hib), hepat ...[more]

PMID: 33003480

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Project description:BackgroundAs we continue the fourth year of the COVID-19 epidemic, SARS-CoV-2 infections still cause high morbidity and mortality in the United States. During 2020-2022, COVID-19 was one of the leading causes of death in the United States and by far the leading cause among infectious diseases. Vaccination uptake remains low despite this being an effective burden reducing intervention. The development of COVID-19 therapeutics provides hope for mitigating severe clinical outcomes. This modeling study examines combined strategies of vaccination and treatment to reduce the burden of COVID-19 epidemics over the next decade.MethodsWe use a validated mathematical model to evaluate the reduction of incident cases, hospitalized cases, and deaths in the United States through 2033 under various levels of vaccination and treatment coverage. We assume that future seasonal transmission patterns for COVID-19 will be similar to those of influenza virus and account for the waning of infection-induced immunity and vaccine-induced immunity in a future with stable COVID-19 dynamics. Due to uncertainty in the duration of immunity following vaccination or infection, we consider three exponentially distributed waning rates, with means of 365 days (1 year), 548 days (1.5 years), and 730 days (2 years). We also consider treatment failure, including rebound frequency, as a possible treatment outcome.ResultsAs expected, universal vaccination is projected to eliminate transmission and mortality. Under current treatment coverage (13.7%) and vaccination coverage (49%), averages of 81,000-164,600 annual reported deaths, depending on duration of immunity, are expected by the end of this decade. Annual mortality in the United States can be reduced below 50,000 per year with 52-80% annual vaccination coverage and below 10,000 annual deaths with 59-83% annual vaccination coverage, depending on duration of immunity. Universal treatment reduces hospitalizations by 88.6% and deaths by 93.1% under current vaccination coverage. A reduction in vaccination coverage requires a comparatively larger increase in treatment coverage in order for hospitalization and mortality levels to remain unchanged.ConclusionsAdopting universal vaccination and universal treatment goals in the United States will likely lead to a COVID-19 mortality burden below 50,000 deaths per year, a burden comparable to that of influenza virus.

Project description:BackgroundIn Australia in 2017, 89% of 15-year-old females and 86% of 15-year-old males had received at least one dose of the HPV vaccine. However, considerable variation in HPV vaccination initiation (dose one) across schools remains. It is important to understand the school-level characteristics most strongly associated with low initiation and their contribution to the overall between-school variation.MethodsA population-based ecological analysis was conducted using school-level data for 2016 on all adolescent students eligible for HPV vaccination in three Australian jurisdictions. We conducted logistic regression to determine school-level factors associated with lower HPV vaccination initiation (< 75% dose 1 uptake) and estimated the population attributable risk (PAR) and the proportion of schools with the factor (school-level prevalence).ResultsThe factors most strongly associated with lower initiation, and their prevalence were; small schools (OR = 9.3, 95%CI = 6.1-14.1; 33% of schools), special education schools (OR = 5.6,95%CI = 3.7-8.5; 8% of schools), higher Indigenous enrolments (OR = 2.7,95% CI:1.9-3.7; 31% of schools), lower attendance rates (OR = 2.6,95%CI = 1.7-3.7; 35% of schools), remote location (OR = 2.6,95%CI = 1.6-4.3; 6% of schools,) and lower socioeconomic area (OR = 1.8,95% CI = 1.3-2.5; 33% of schools). The highest PARs were small schools (PAR = 79%, 95%CI:76-82), higher Indigenous enrolments (PAR = 38%, 95%CI: 31-44) and lower attendance rate (PAR = 37%, 95%CI: 29-46).ConclusionThis analysis suggests that initiatives to support schools that are smaller, with a higher proportion of Indigenous adolescents and lower attendance rates may contribute most to reducing the variation of HPV vaccination uptake observed at a school-level in these jurisdictions. Estimating population-level coverage at the school-level is useful to guide policy and prioritise resourcing to support school-based vaccination programs.

Dataset Information

Measuring the Benefits of Mass Vaccination Programs in the United States.

Publications

Measuring the Benefits of Mass Vaccination Programs in the United States.

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