Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
Methods: We used data on daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, recovered cases and deaths from the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to build compartmental models for three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic. We incorporated the hospital-bed capacity of both designated and Fangcang shelter hospitals. We used the models to assess the success of the strategy adopted in Wuhan to control the COVID-19 epidemic.
Findings: Based on the 13?348 Fangcang shelter hospitals beds used in practice, our models show that if the Fangcang shelter hospitals had been opened on 6 February (a day after their actual opening), the total number of COVID-19 cases would have reached 7?413?798 (instead of 50?844) with 1?396?017 deaths (instead of 5003), and the epidemic would have lasted for 179 days (instead of 71).
Conclusion: While the designated hospitals saved lives of patients with severe COVID-19, it was the increased hospital-bed capacity of the large number of Fangcang shelter hospitals that helped slow and eventually stop the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan. Given the current global pandemic of COVID-19, our study suggests that increasing hospital-bed capacity, especially through temporary hospitals such as Fangcang shelter hospitals, to isolate groups of people with mild symptoms within an affected region could help curb and eventually stop COVID-19 outbreaks in communities where effective household isolation is not possible.
SUBMITTER: Li J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7716094 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Li Juan J Yuan Pei P Heffernan Jane J Zheng Tingting T Ogden Nick N Sander Beate B Li Jun J Li Qi Q Bélair Jacques J Kong Jude Dzevela JD Aruffo Elena E Tan Yi Y Jin Zhen Z Yu Yong Y Fan Meng M Cui Jingan J Teng Zhidong Z Zhu Huaiping H
Bulletin of the World Health Organization 20200929 12
<h4>Objective</h4>To design models of the spread of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals (rapidly-built temporary hospitals) on the control of the epidemic.<h4>Methods</h4>We used data on daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, recovered cases and deaths from the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to build compartmental models for three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic. We incorporated the hospital-bed capacity of bot ...[more]