Project description:ImportanceProvisional records from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) through July 2020 indicate that overdose deaths spiked during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, yet more recent trends are not available, and the data are not disaggregated by month of occurrence, race/ethnicity, or other social categories. In contrast, data from emergency medical services (EMS) provide a source of information nearly in real time that may be useful for rapid and more granular surveillance of overdose mortality.ObjectiveTo describe racial/ethnic, social, and geographic trends in EMS-observed overdose-associated cardiac arrests during the COVID-19 pandemic through December 2020 and assess the concordance with CDC-reported provisional total overdose mortality through May 2020.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study included more than 11 000 EMS agencies in 49 US states that participate in the National EMS Information System and 83.7 million EMS activations in which patient contact was made.ExposuresYear and month of occurrence of overdose-associated cardiac arrest; patient race/ethnicity; census region and division; county-level urbanicity; and zip code-level racial/ethnic composition, poverty, and educational attainment.Main outcomes and measuresOverdose-associated cardiac arrests per 100 000 EMS activations with patient contact in 2020 were compared with a baseline of values from 2018 and 2019. Aggregate numbers of overdose-associated cardiac arrests and percentage increases were compared with provisional total mortality in CDC records from rolling 12-month windows with end months spanning January 2018 through July 2020.ResultsAmong 33.4 million EMS activations in 2020, 16.8 million (50.2%) involved female patients and 16.3 million (48.8%) involved non-Hispanic White individuals. Overdose-associated cardiac arrests were elevated by 42.1% nationally in 2020 (42.3 per 100 000 EMS activations at baseline vs 60.1 per 100 000 EMS activations in 2020). The highest percentage increases were seen among Latinx individuals (49.7%; 38.8 per 100 000 activations at baseline vs 58.1 per 100 000 activations in 2020) and Black or African American individuals (50.3%; 21.5 per 100 000 activations at baseline vs 32.3 per 100 000 activations in 2020), people living in more impoverished neighborhoods (46.4%; 42.0 per 100 000 activations at baseline vs 61.5 per 100 000 activations in 2020), and the Pacific states (63.8%; 33.1 per 100 000 activations at baseline vs 54.2 per 100 000 activations in 2020), despite lower rates at baseline for these groups. The EMS records were available 6 to 12 months ahead of CDC mortality figures and showed a high concordance (r = 0.98) for months in which both data sets were available. If the historical association between EMS-observed and total overdose mortality holds true, an expected total of approximately 90 632 (95% CI, 85 737-95 525) overdose deaths may eventually be reported by the CDC for 2020.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study, records from EMS agencies provided an effective manner to rapidly surveil shifts in US overdose mortality. Unprecedented overdose deaths during the pandemic necessitate investments in overdose prevention as an essential aspect of the COVID-19 response and postpandemic recovery. This is particularly urgent for more socioeconomically disadvantaged and racial/ethnic minority communities subjected to the compounded burden of disproportionate COVID-19 mortality and rising overdose deaths.
Project description:IntroductionThe annual rate of recreational overdose (OD)-related death is increasing exponentially, making unintentional overdose the leading cause of injury-related death in America. Unfortunately, little attention in the resuscitation community has focused on the post-arrest care of this rapidly growing population.MethodsWe included patients presenting between January 2009 and February 2014 after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and abstracted baseline clinical characteristics and neurological outcomes. We considered an arrest to be an OD OHCA if toxicology screens were positive and not explained by therapeutic medication administration or home medications; or if there was a history strongly suggestive of OD. We compared the baseline clinical characteristics and outcomes between the OD and non-OD cohorts.ResultsIn total, 591 OHCA patients were admitted, of which 85 (14%) arrests were OD-related. OD OHCA patients were significantly younger, had fewer medical comorbidities, were more likely to present with non-shockable rhythms and had worse baseline neurological function. However, overall survival, neurological outcomes and length of stay did not vary between groups. OD OHCA patients who survived to discharge had a significantly higher rate of favorable discharge dispositions (83% of OD OHCA survivors discharged to home or acute rehabilitation vs 62% of non-OD OHCA (P=0.03)).ConclusionPatients who have suffered an OD OHCA make up a significant proportion of the overall OHCA population. Despite poor baseline prognostic factors, survival after OD OHCA was no worse than after non-OD OHCA, and among survivors a majority had a good neurological outcome.
Project description:The goal of this study is to develop and validate a lightweight, interpretable machine learning (ML) classifier to identify opioid overdoses in emergency medical services (EMS) records. We conducted a comparative assessment of three feature engineering approaches designed for use with unstructured narrative data. Opioid overdose annotations were provided by two harm reduction paramedics and two supporting annotators trained to reliably match expert annotations. Candidate feature engineering techniques included term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF), a highly performant approach to concept vectorization, and a custom approach based on the count of empirically-identified keywords. Each feature set was trained using four model architectures: generalized linear model (GLM), Naïve Bayes, neural network, and Extreme Gradient Boost (XGBoost). Ensembles of trained models were also evaluated. The custom feature models were also assessed for variable importance to aid interpretation. Models trained using TF-IDF feature engineering ranged from AUROC = 0.59 (95% CI: 0.53-0.66) for the Naïve Bayes to AUROC = 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71-0.81) for the neural network. Models trained using concept vectorization features ranged from AUROC = 0.83 (95% 0.78-0.88)for the Naïve Bayes to AUROC = 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85-0.94) for the ensemble. Models trained using custom features were the most performant, with benchmarks ranging from AUROC = 0.92 (95% CI: 0.88-0.95) with the GLM to 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.96) for the ensemble. The custom features model achieved positive predictive values (PPV) ranging for 80 to 100%, which represent substantial improvements over previously published EMS encounter opioid overdose classifiers. The application of this approach to county EMS data can productively inform local and targeted harm reduction initiatives.
Project description:Study objective: Prehospital use of naloxone for presumed opioid overdose has increased markedly in recent years because of the current opioid overdose epidemic. In this study, we determine the 1-year mortality of suspected opioid overdose patients who were treated with naloxone by EMS and initially survived. Methods: This was a retrospective observational study of patients using three linked statewide datasets in Massachusetts: emergency medical services (EMS), a master demographics file, and death records. We included all suspected opioid overdose patients who were treated with naloxone by EMS. The primary outcome measures were death within 3 days of treatment and between 4 days and 1 year of treatment. Results: Between July 1, 2013 and December 31, 2015, there were 9734 individuals who met inclusion criteria and were included for analysis. Of these, 807 (8.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.7-8.8%)) died in the first 3 days, 668 (6.9% (95% CI 6.4-7.4%)) died between 4 days and 1 year, and 8259 (84.8% (95% CI 84.1-85.6%)) were still alive at 1 year. Excluding those who died within 3 days, 668 of the remaining 8927 individuals (7.5% (95% CI 6.9-8.0%)) died within 1 year. Conclusion: The 1-year mortality of those who are treated with naloxone for opioid overdose by EMS is high. Communities should focus both on primary prevention and interventions for this patient population, including strengthening regional treatment centers and expanding access to medication for opioid use disorder.
Project description:(1) Background: During the COVID-19 outbreak in the Lazio region, a surge in emergency medical service (EMS) calls has been observed. The objective of present study is to investigate if there is any correlation between the variation in numbers of daily EMS calls, and the short-term evolution of the epidemic wave. (2) Methods: Data from the COVID-19 outbreak has been retrieved in order to draw the epidemic curve in the Lazio region. Data from EMS calls has been used in order to determine Excess of Calls (ExCa) in the 2020-2021 years, compared to the year 2019 (baseline). Multiple linear regression models have been run between ExCa and the first-order derivative (D') of the epidemic wave in time, each regression model anticipating the epidemic progression (up to 14 days), in order to probe a correlation between the variables. (3) Results: EMS calls variation from baseline is correlated with the slope of the curve of ICU admissions, with the most fitting value found at 7 days (R2 0.33, p < 0.001). (4) Conclusions: EMS calls deviation from baseline allows public health services to predict short-term epidemic trends in COVID-19 outbreaks, and can be used as validation of current data, or as an independent estimator of future trends.
Project description:BackgroundSince 2015, the international resuscitation guidelines recommend the implementation of specialized hospitals (so-called cardiac arrest centers, CAC) for patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA).ObjectivesThe aim was to investigate the potential influence of hospital certification as a CAC on the decision of emergency medical service staff (EMS, including out-of-hospital emergency physicians and paramedics) when transporting OHCA patients to a hospital.Materials and methodsA web-based, anonymous questionnaire with 20 items was performed from 15 May 2018 to 15 June 2018 in Germany. Target groups were out-of-hospital emergency physicians and paramedics.ResultsOf 437 respondents, 378 responses (n = 292 emergency physicians, n = 86 paramedics) were included in the statistical analysis. In all, 75.1% (n = 284) indicated that CAC certification of hospitals would matter in their own transportation decisions for OHCA patients in future transportations, 78.3% (n = 296) expected that CAC certification will result in an improvement in patient care, and 78.8% (n = 298) were in favor of implementing the CAC certification. Respondents would accept an additional 16.3 min (95% confidence interval 15.2-17.3) of transportation time to reach a CAC.ConclusionsCertification of hospitals as CAC has the potential to influence emergency medical personnel decisions about which hospital to transport OHCA patients to. Due to the limited additional acceptable transport time to reach a CAC, a close network of certified hospitals is needed nationwide.
Project description:ObjectivesTo describe the demand for emergency medical assistance during the largest outbreak of thunderstorm asthma reported globally, which occurred on 21 November 2016.DesignA time series analysis was conducted of emergency medical service caseload between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2016. Demand during the thunderstorm asthma event was compared to historical trends for the overall population and across specific subgroups.SettingVictoria, Australia.Main outcome measuresNumber of overall cases attended by emergency medical services, and within patient subgroups.ResultsOn 21 November 2016, the emergency medical service received calls for 2954 cases, which was 1014 more cases than the average over the historical period. Between 6 pm and midnight, calls for 1326 cases were received, which was 2.5 times higher than expected. A total of 332 patients were assessed by paramedics as having acute respiratory distress on 21 November, compared with a daily average of 52 during the historical period. After adjustment for temporal trends, thunderstorm asthma was associated with a 42% (95% confidence interval 40% to 44%) increase in overall caseload for the emergency medical service and a 432% increase in emergency medical attendances for acute respiratory distress symptoms. Emergency transports to hospital increased by 17% (16% to 19%) and time critical referrals from general practitioners increased by 47% (21% to 80%). Large increases in demand were seen among patients with a history of asthma and bronchodilator use. The incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest increased by 82% (67% to 99%) and pre-hospital deaths by 41% (29% to 55%).ConclusionsAn unprecedented outbreak of thunderstorm asthma was associated with substantial increase in demand for emergency medical services and pre-hospital cardiac arrest. The health impact of future events may be minimised through use of preventive measures by patients and predictive early warning systems.
Project description:IntroductionCanada and the United States continue to experience increasing overdose deaths attributed to highly toxic illicit substances, driven by fentanyl and its analogues. Many bystanders report being hesitant to call 9-1-1 at an overdose due to fears around police presence and arrests. In Canada, a federal law was enacted in 2017, the Good Samaritan Drug Overdose Act (GSDOA), to provide protection from simple drug possession and related charges when 9-1-1 is called to an overdose. There is limited evidence, however, that the GSDOA has improved rates of intention to call 9-1-1 at overdose events. We therefore sought to examine intent to call 9-1-1 among persons who received GSDOA education and were at risk of witnessing an overdose.MethodsA cross-sectional survey was conducted with people at risk of witnessing an overdose recruited at 19 Take Home Naloxone (THN) program sites across British Columbia as well as online through Foundry from October 2020 to April 2021. Descriptive statistics were used to examine intention to call 9-1-1 at future overdoses. Multivariable logistic regression models were built in hierarchical fashion to examine factors associated with intention to call 9-1-1.ResultsOverall, 89.6% (n = 404) of the eligible sample reported intention to call 9-1-1. In the multivariable model, factors positively associated with intention to call 9-1-1 included identifying as a cisgender woman (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 3.37; 95% CI: 1.19-9.50) and having previous GSDOA awareness ([AOR]: 4.16; 95% CI: 1.62-10.70). Having experienced a stimulant overdose in the past 6 months was negatively associated with intention to call 9-1-1 ([AOR]: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.09-0.65).ConclusionA small proportion of the respondents reported that, despite the enactment of GSDOA, they did not intend to call 9-1-1 and those who were aware of the act were more likely to report an intention to call at future overdose events. Increasing GSDOA awareness and/or additional interventions to support the aims of the GSDOA could address ongoing reluctance to seek emergency medical care by people who use drugs.
Project description:BACKGROUND:Variation in the incidence, survival rate and factors associated with survival after cardiac arrest in Europe is reported. Some studies have tried to fill the knowledge gap regarding the epidemiology of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Europe but were unable to identify reasons for the reported differences. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to describe European Emergency Medical Systems, particularly from the perspective of country and ambulance service characteristics, cardiac arrest identification, dispatch, treatment, and monitoring. METHODS:An online questionnaire with 51 questions about ambulance and dispatch characteristics, on-scene management of cardiac arrest and the availability and dataset in cardiac arrest registries, was sent to all national coordinators who participated in the European Registry of Cardiac Arrest studies. In addition, individual invitations were sent to the remaining European countries. RESULTS:Participants from 28 European countries responded to the questionnaire. Results were combined with official information on population density. Overall, the number of Emergency Medical Service missions, level of training of personnel, availability of Helicopter Emergency Medical Services and the involvement of first responders varied across and within countries. There were similarities in team training, availability of key resuscitation equipment and permission for ongoing performance of cardiopulmonary resuscitation during transported. The quality of reporting to cardiac arrest registries varied, as well as the data availability in the registries. CONCLUSIONS:Throughout Europe there are important differences in Emergency Medical Service systems and the response to out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Explaining these differences is complicated due to significant variation in how variables are reported to and used in registries.