Dataset Information

Effect of liver fibrosis on survival in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a SEER population-based study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is a biliary tract malignancy with rising incidence in recent decades. While the causative role of cirrhosis in the development of iCCA is well established, the role of cirrhosis as a prognostic factor in iCCA is debatable.

Materials and methods

The study population consisted of 512 patients diagnosed with iCCA between 2004-2016 collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The impact of fibrosis on overall and cancer-specific survival 12, 36 and 60 months following diagnosis, was evaluated in the entire cohort and in sub-groups stratified according to treatment approach and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor stage using a Cox proportional-hazards model.

Results

After adjusting for age, sex, race, year of diagnosis, AJCC stage, and surgical treatment strategy, advanced fibrosis was associated with worse cancer-specific survival across follow up periods (HR 1.49 (1.13-1.96, p = 0.005); HR 1.44 (1.14-1.83, p = 0.002) and HR 1.45 (1.15-1.83, p = 0.002) for 12, 36 and 60 months, respectively). Similar effects were observed for overall survival. Among patients that underwent surgical resection, advanced fibrosis was associated with worse overall survival and cancer-specific survival across follow up periods. Fibrosis was associated with worse overall and cancer-specific survival in patients with a later stage (III-IV) at diagnosis but this effect was not demonstrated in early stages.

Conclusions

Patients with iCCA and advanced liver fibrosis have an increased risk of both overall and cancer-specific mortality compared to patients with earlier stages of fibrosis.

SUBMITTER: Levy NA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7720776 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Effect of liver fibrosis on survival in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a SEER population-based study.

Levy Nimrod Adatto NA Kern Guy G Shepshelovich Daniel D Shibolet Oren O Hershkoviz Rami R Isakov Ofer O

Oncotarget 20201124 47

<h4>Background</h4>Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is a biliary tract malignancy with rising incidence in recent decades. While the causative role of cirrhosis in the development of iCCA is well established, the role of cirrhosis as a prognostic factor in iCCA is debatable.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>The study population consisted of 512 patients diagnosed with iCCA between 2004-2016 collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The impact of fibrosis on ...[more]

PMID: 33315979

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Project description:BackgroundThe effectiveness of adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) after hepatectomy remains unclear. This study was performed to identify ICC patients who would benefit from adjuvant TACE.Patients and methodsThe study included 553 patients who underwent hepatectomy for ICC between January 2008 and February 2011 at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital and who were treated with or without TACE (122 with TACE and 431 without TACE). Survival risk stratification was performed using the established prognostic nomogram (ICC nomogram). The predictive performance was evaluated by concordance index and calibration. The tumor recurrence and overall survival (OS) rates were analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method before and after propensity score matching (PSM).ResultsThe predictive performance of the ICC nomogram was demonstrated by the well-fitted calibration curves and an optimal c-index of 0.71 for OS prediction. In the whole cohort, the 5-year recurrence and OS rates between the TACE and non-TACE groups were significantly different (5-year recurrence: 72.9% vs. 78.1%; OS: 38.4% vs. 29.7%). After 1:1 PSM, the TACE and non-TACE groups (122 patients each) had similar 5-year recurrence and OS rates (5-year recurrence: 72.9% vs. 74.2%; OS: 38.4% vs. 36.0%). By survival risk stratification based on ICC nomogram, only the patients in the lowest tertile (nomogram scores ?77) benefited from adjuvant TACE (TACE vs. non-TACE groups: 90.4% vs. 95.9% for 5-year recurrence; 21.3% vs. 6.2% for 5-year OS).ConclusionAdjuvant TACE following liver resection might be suitable for ICC patients with high ICC nomogram scores (?77).Implications for practiceThe accurate predictive performance of the established prognostic nomogram for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) following liver resection was reconfirmed in an independent cohort with 553 patients. Based on the survival risk stratification using the nomogram, adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization following liver resection might be suitable only for ICC patients with high scores from the nomogram.

Project description:BackgroundNomograms have been established to predict survival in postoperative or elderly intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) patients. There are no models to predict postoperative survival in elderly ICC patients. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) can adjust the errors generated by existing models. This retrospective cohort study aimed to develop and validate an XGBoost model to predict postoperative 5-year survival in elderly ICC patients.MethodsThe Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program provided data on elderly ICC patients aged 60 years or older and undergoing surgery. The median follow-up time was 20 months. Totally 1,055 patients were classified as training (n=738) and testing (n=317) sets at a ratio of 7:3. The outcome was postoperative 5-year survival. Demographic, tumor-related and treatment-related variables were collected. Variables were screened using the XGBoost model. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and Kaplan-Meier curve. Cox regression analysis was conducted to estimate the risk of death in the predicted populations. The predictive abilities of the XGBoost model and the American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC) system (7th edition) were compared.ResultsThe XGBoost model achieved an AUC of 0.811, a sensitivity of 0.573, a specificity of 0.890, and a PPV of 0.849 in the training set. In the testing set, the model had an AUC of 0.713, a sensitivity of 0.478, a specificity of 0.814, and a PPV of 0.726. The 5-year mortality risk of patients predicted to die was 2.91 times that of patients predicted to survive [hazard ratio (HR) =2.91, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.42-3.50]. The XGBoost model showed a better predictive performance than the AJCC staging system both in the training and testing sets. AJCC stage, multiple (satellite) tumors/nodules, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, more than one lobe invaded, direct invasion of adjacent organs, tumor size, and radiotherapy were relatively important features in survival prediction.ConclusionsThe XGBoost model exhibited some predictive capacity, which may be applied to predict postoperative 5-year survival for elderly ICC patients.

Dataset Information

Effect of liver fibrosis on survival in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a SEER population-based study.

Background

Materials and methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Effect of liver fibrosis on survival in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a SEER population-based study.

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