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How to better communicate the exponential growth of infectious diseases.

ABSTRACT: Exponential growth bias is the phenomenon whereby humans underestimate exponential growth. In the context of infectious diseases, this bias may lead to a failure to understand the magnitude of the benefit of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Communicating the same scenario in different ways (framing) has been found to have a large impact on people's evaluations and behavior in the contexts of social behavior, risk taking and health care. We find that framing matters for people's assessment of the benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions. In two commonly used frames, most subjects in our experiment drastically underestimate the number of cases avoided by adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions. Framing growth in terms of doubling times rather than growth rates reduces the bias. When the scenario is framed in terms of time gained rather than cases avoided, the median subject assesses the benefit of non-pharmaceutical interventions correctly. These findings suggest changes that could be adopted to better communicate the exponential spread of infectious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Schonger M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7725369 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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How to better communicate the exponential growth of infectious diseases.

Schonger Martin M Sele Daniela D

PloS one 20201209 12

Exponential growth bias is the phenomenon whereby humans underestimate exponential growth. In the context of infectious diseases, this bias may lead to a failure to understand the magnitude of the benefit of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Communicating the same scenario in different ways (framing) has been found to have a large impact on people's evaluations and behavior in the contexts of social behavior, risk taking and health care. We find that framing matters for people's assessment of th ...[more]

PMID: 33296387

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Project description:BackgroundHumans struggle to grasp the extent of exponential growth, which is essential to comprehend the spread of an infectious disease. Exponential growth bias is the tendency to linearize exponential functions when assessing them intuitively. Effective public health communication about the nonlinear nature of infectious diseases has strong implications for the public's compliance with strict restrictions. However, there is a lack of synthesized knowledge on the communication of the exponential growth of infectious diseases and on the outcomes of exponential growth bias.ObjectiveThis systematic review identifies, evaluates, and synthesizes the findings of empirical studies on exponential growth bias of infectious diseases.MethodsA systematic review will be conducted using the PRISMA-P (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols) 2015 statement. Eligibility criteria include empirical studies of exponential growth bias of infectious diseases regardless of methodology. We include studies both with and without interventions/strategies. For information sources, we include the following five bibliographic databases: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, PsychINFO, and Web of Science Core Collection. The risk of bias will be assessed using RoB 2 (Risk of Bias 2) and STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology). Data synthesis will be achieved through a narrative synthesis.ResultsBy February 2022, we included 11 experimental studies and 1 cross-sectional survey study. Preliminary themes identified are the presence of exponential growth bias, the effect of exponential growth bias, and communication strategies to mitigate exponential growth bias. Data extraction, narrative synthesis, and the risk of bias assessment are to be completed by February 2023.ConclusionsWe anticipate that this systematic review will draw some lines related to how people comprehend and misperceive exponential growth and its consequences for infectious disease mitigation and communication. Furthermore, the study will conclude with the limitations of the research and suggestions for future research.International registered report identifier (irrid)DERR1-10.2196/37441.

Dataset Information

How to better communicate the exponential growth of infectious diseases.

Publications

How to better communicate the exponential growth of infectious diseases.

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