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How to better communicate the exponential growth of infectious diseases.

ABSTRACT: Exponential growth bias is the phenomenon whereby humans underestimate exponential growth. In the context of infectious diseases, this bias may lead to a failure to understand the magnitude of the benefit of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Communicating the same scenario in different ways (framing) has been found to have a large impact on people's evaluations and behavior in the contexts of social behavior, risk taking and health care. We find that framing matters for people's assessment of the benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions. In two commonly used frames, most subjects in our experiment drastically underestimate the number of cases avoided by adopting non-pharmaceutical interventions. Framing growth in terms of doubling times rather than growth rates reduces the bias. When the scenario is framed in terms of time gained rather than cases avoided, the median subject assesses the benefit of non-pharmaceutical interventions correctly. These findings suggest changes that could be adopted to better communicate the exponential spread of infectious diseases.

SUBMITTER: Schonger M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7725369 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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How to better communicate the exponential growth of infectious diseases.

Schonger Martin M Sele Daniela D

PloS one 20201209 12

Exponential growth bias is the phenomenon whereby humans underestimate exponential growth. In the context of infectious diseases, this bias may lead to a failure to understand the magnitude of the benefit of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Communicating the same scenario in different ways (framing) has been found to have a large impact on people's evaluations and behavior in the contexts of social behavior, risk taking and health care. We find that framing matters for people's assessment of th ...[more]

PMID: 33296387

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Project description:The Immucillins are chemically stable analogues that mimic the ribocation and leaving-group features of N-ribosyltransferase transition states. Infectious disease agents often rely on ribosyltransferase chemistry in pathways involving precursor synthesis for nucleic acids, salvage of nucleic acid precursors, or synthetic pathways with nucleoside intermediates. Here, we review three infectious agents and the use of the Immucillins to taget enzymes essential to the parasites. First, DADMe-Immucillin-G is a purine nucleoside phosphorylase (PNP) inhibitor that blocks purine salvage and shows clinical potential for treatment for the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, a purine auxotroph requiring hypoxanthine for purine nucleotide synthesis. Inhibition of the PNPs in the host and in parasite cells leads to apurinic starvation and death. Second, Helicobacter pylori, a causative agent of human ulcers, synthesizes menaquinone, an essential electron transfer agent, in a pathway requiring aminofutalosine nucleoside hydrolysis. Inhibitors of the H. pylori methylthioadenosine nucleosidase (MTAN) are powerful antibiotics for this organism. Synthesis of menaquinone by the aminofutalosine pathway does not occur in most bacteria populating the human gut microbiome. Thus, MTAN inhibitors provide high-specificity antibiotics for H. pylori and are not expected to disrupt the normal gut bacterial flora. Third, Immucillin-A was designed as a transition state analogue of the atypical PNP from Trichomonas vaginalis. In antiviral screens, Immucillin-A was shown to act as a prodrug. It is active against filoviruses and flaviviruses. In virus-infected cells, Immucillin-A is converted to the triphosphate, is incorporated into the viral transcript, and functions as an atypical chain-terminator for RNA-dependent RNA polymerases. Immucillin-A has entered clinical trials for use as an antiviral. We also summarize other Immucillins that have been characterized in successful clinical trials for T-cell lymphoma and gout. The human trials support the potential development of the Immucillins in infectious diseases.

Dataset Information

How to better communicate the exponential growth of infectious diseases.

Publications

How to better communicate the exponential growth of infectious diseases.

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