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Network meta-regression for ordinal outcomes: Applications in comparing Crohn's disease treatments.

ABSTRACT: Crohn's disease (CD) is a life-long condition associated with recurrent relapses characterized by abdominal pain, weight loss, anemia, and persistent diarrhea. In the US, there are approximately 780 000 CD patients and 33 000 new cases added each year. In this article, we propose a new network meta-regression approach for modeling ordinal outcomes in order to assess the efficacy of treatments for CD. Specifically, we develop regression models based on aggregate covariates for the underlying cut points of the ordinal outcomes as well as for the variances of the random effects to capture heterogeneity across trials. Our proposed models are particularly useful for indirect comparisons of multiple treatments that have not been compared head-to-head within the network meta-analysis framework. Moreover, we introduce Pearson residuals and construct an invariant test statistic to evaluate goodness-of-fit in the setting of ordinal outcome data. A detailed case study demonstrating the usefulness of the proposed methodology is carried out using aggregate ordinal outcome data from 16 clinical trials for treating CD.

SUBMITTER: Gwon Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7727029 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Network meta-regression for ordinal outcomes: Applications in comparing Crohn's disease treatments.

Gwon Yeongjin Y Mo May M Chen Ming-Hui MH Chi Zhiyi Z Li Juan J Xia Amy H AH Ibrahim Joseph G JG

Statistics in medicine 20200312

Crohn's disease (CD) is a life-long condition associated with recurrent relapses characterized by abdominal pain, weight loss, anemia, and persistent diarrhea. In the US, there are approximately 780 000 CD patients and 33 000 new cases added each year. In this article, we propose a new network meta-regression approach for modeling ordinal outcomes in order to assess the efficacy of treatments for CD. Specifically, we develop regression models based on aggregate covariates for the underlying cut ...[more]

PMID: 32166784

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Project description:Background No network meta-analysis has considered the relative efficacy of cilostazol, home exercise therapy, supervised exercise therapy (SET), endovascular revascularization (ER), and ER plus SET (ER+SET) in improving maximum walking distance (MWD) over short- (<1 year), moderate- (1 to <2 years), and long-term (≥2 years) follow-up in people with intermittent claudication. Methods and Results A systematic literature search was performed to identify randomized controlled trials testing 1 or more of these 5 treatments according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis guidelines. The primary outcome was improvement in MWD assessed by a standardized treadmill test. Secondary outcomes were adverse events and health-related quality of life. Network meta-analysis was performed using the gemtc R statistical package. The Cochrane collaborative tool was used to assess risk of bias. Forty-six trials involving 4256 patients were included. At short-term follow-up, home exercise therapy (mean difference [MD], 89.4 m; 95% credible interval [CrI], 20.9-157.7), SET (MD, 186.8 m; 95% CrI, 136.4-237.6), and ER+SET (MD, 326.3 m; 95% CrI, 222.6-430.6), but not ER (MD, 82.5 m; 95% CrI, -2.4 to 168.2) and cilostazol (MD, 71.1 m; 95% CrI, -24.6 to 167.9), significantly improved MWD (in meters) compared with controls. At moderate-term follow-up, SET (MD, 201.1; 95% CrI, 89.8-318.3) and ER+SET (MD, 368.5; 95% CrI, 195.3-546.9), but not home exercise therapy (MD, 99.4; 95% CrI, -174.0 to 374.9) or ER (MD, 84.2; 95% CrI, -35.3 to 206.4), significantly improved MWD (in meters) compared to controls. At long-term follow-up, none of the tested treatments significantly improved MWD compared to controls. Adverse events and quality of life were reported inconsistently and could not be meta-analyzed. Risk of bias was low, moderate, and high in 4, 24, and 18 trials respectively. Conclusions This network meta-analysis suggested that SET and ER+SET are effective at improving MWD over the moderate term (<2 year) but not beyond this. Durable treatments for intermittent claudication are needed.

Project description:BackgroundNetwork meta-analyses can be valuable for decision-makers in guiding clinical practice. However, for network meta-analysis results to be reliable, the assumptions of both transitivity and coherence must be met, and the methodology should adhere to current best practices. We aimed to assess whether network meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing interventions for proximal humerus fractures provide reliable estimates of intervention effects.MethodsWe searched PubMed, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, and Web of Science for network meta-analyses comparing interventions for proximal humerus fractures. We critically assessed the methodology regarding the development of a protocol, search strategy, trial inclusion, outcome extraction, and the methods used to conduct the network meta-analyses. We assessed the transitivity and coherence of the network graphs for the Constant score (CS), Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand score (DASH), and additional surgery. Transitivity was assessed by comparing probable effect modifiers (age, gender, fracture morphology, and comorbidities) across intervention comparisons. Coherence was assessed using Separating Indirect from Direct Evidence (SIDE) (Separating Indirect from Direct Evidence) and the design-by-treatment interaction test. We used CINeMA (Confidence in Network Meta-analyses) to assess the confidence in the results.ResultsNone of the three included network meta-analyses had a publicly available protocol or data-analysis plan, and they all had methodological flaws that could threaten the validity of their results. Although we did not detect incoherence for most comparisons, the transitivity assumption was violated for CS, DASH, and additional surgery in all three network meta-analyses. Additionally, the confidence in the results was 'very low' primarily due to within-study bias, reporting bias, intransitivity, imprecision, and heterogeneity.ConclusionsCurrent network meta-analyses of RCTs comparing interventions for proximal humerus fractures do not provide reliable estimates of intervention effects. We advise caution in using these network meta-analyses to guide clinical practice. To improve the utility of network meta-analyses to guide clinical practice, journal editors should require that network meta-analyses are done according to a predefined analysis plan in a publicly available protocol and that both coherence and transitivity have been adequately assessed and reported.

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Network meta-regression for ordinal outcomes: Applications in comparing Crohn's disease treatments.

Publications

Network meta-regression for ordinal outcomes: Applications in comparing Crohn's disease treatments.

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