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Predicting the risk of future depression among school-attending adolescents in Nigeria using a model developed in Brazil.

ABSTRACT: Depression commonly emerges in adolescence and is a major public health issue in low- and middle-income countries where 90% of the world's adolescents live. Thus efforts to prevent depression onset are crucial in countries like Nigeria, where two-thirds of the population are aged under 24. Therefore, we tested the ability of a prediction model developed in Brazil to predict future depression in a Nigerian adolescent sample. Data were obtained from school students aged 14-16 years in Lagos, who were assessed in 2016 and 2019 for depression using a self-completed version of the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview for Children and Adolescents. Only the 1,928 students free of depression at baseline were included. Penalized logistic regression was used to predict individualized risk of developing depression at follow-up for each adolescent based on the 7 matching baseline sociodemographic predictors from the Brazilian model. Discrimination between adolescents who did and did not develop depression was better than chance (area under the curve = 0.62 (bootstrap-corrected 95% CI: 0.58-0.66). However, the model was not well-calibrated even after adjustment of the intercept, indicating poorer overall performance compared to the original Brazilian cohort. Updating the model with context-specific factors may improve prediction of depression in this setting.

SUBMITTER: Brathwaite R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7732701 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting the risk of future depression among school-attending adolescents in Nigeria using a model developed in Brazil.

Brathwaite Rachel R Rocha Thiago Botter-Maio TB Kieling Christian C Kohrt Brandon A BA Mondelli Valeria V Adewuya Abiodun O AO Fisher Helen L HL

Psychiatry research 20201016

Depression commonly emerges in adolescence and is a major public health issue in low- and middle-income countries where 90% of the world's adolescents live. Thus efforts to prevent depression onset are crucial in countries like Nigeria, where two-thirds of the population are aged under 24. Therefore, we tested the ability of a prediction model developed in Brazil to predict future depression in a Nigerian adolescent sample. Data were obtained from school students aged 14-16 years in Lagos, who w ...[more]

PMID: 33113451

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Project description:IntroductionGlobally, depression is a leading cause of disability among adolescents, and suicide rates are increasing among youth. Treatment alone is insufficient to address the issue. Early identification and prevention efforts are necessary to reduce morbidity and mortality. The Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence (IDEA) consortium is developing risk detection strategies that incorporate biological, psychological and social factors that can be evaluated in diverse global populations. In addition to epidemiological and neuroscience research, the IDEA consortium is conducting a qualitative study to explore three domains of inquiry: (1) cultural heterogeneity of biopsychosocial risk factors and lived experience of adolescent depression in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC); (2) the feasibility, acceptability and ethics of a risk calculator tool for adolescent depression that can be used in LMIC and high-income countries and (3) capacity for biological research into biomarkers for depression risk among adolescents in LMIC. This is a multisite qualitative study being conducted in Brazil, Nepal, Nigeria and the UK.Methods and analysisA systematic set of qualitative methods will be used in this study. The Delphi method, Theory of Change (ToC) workshops, key-informant interviews and focus group discussions will be used to elicit perspectives on the study topics from a broad range of stakeholders (adolescents, parents, policy-makers, teachers, health service providers, social workers and experts). Delphi panellists will participate in three survey rounds to generate consensus through facilitated feedback. Stakeholders will create ToC models via facilitated workshops in the LMIC sites. The framework approach will be used to analyse data from the study.Ethics and disseminationEthical approvals were received from the Ethics Review Board of George Washington University and from site-specific institutions in Brazil, Nepal, Nigeria and the UK. The findings generated from this study will be reported in highly accessed, peer-reviewed, scientific and health policy journals.

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Predicting the risk of future depression among school-attending adolescents in Nigeria using a model developed in Brazil.

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Predicting the risk of future depression among school-attending adolescents in Nigeria using a model developed in Brazil.

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