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Impacts of the meteorological condition versus emissions reduction on the PM2.5 concentration over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei during the COVID-19 lockdown

ABSTRACT: The impacts of the meteorological condition and emissions reduction on the aerosol concentration over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region during the COVID-19 lockdown were analyzed by conducting three numerical experiments, including one with the meteorological field in 2019 and MEIC-2019 (2019 monthly Multi-resolution Emissions Inventory for China), one with the meteorological field in 2020 and MEIC-2019, and one with the meteorological field in 2020 and MEIC-2020, via a WRF-Chem model. The numerical experiments were performed from 3 to 16 February in 2019 and in 2020, during which a severe fog–haze event (3–16 February 2020) occurred in the BTH region, with a simulated maximum daily PM2.5 of 245 μg m−3 in Tangshan and 175 μg m−3 in Beijing. The results indicate that the daily PM2.5 decreased by 5–150 μg m−3 due to the emissions reduction and increased by 10–175 μg m−3 due to the meteorological condition in Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Cangzhou, Handan, Hengshui, Chengde, Zhangjiakou, and Tangshan from 7 to 14 February. For the horizontal distribution, PM2.5 and different aerosol species concentrations from 7 to 14 February 2020 increased compared with those during the same period in 2019, indicating that the accumulation of pollutants caused by the unfavorable meteorological condition offset the decreases caused by the emissions reduction, leading to the high aerosol concentration during the COVID-19 lockdown. 摘要本研究从气象条件和减排两方面探讨了COVID-19封锁期间严重雾霾发生的原因[研究目的], 并定量的分析了气象条件和减排对PM2.5浓度的相对影响[创新点].使用WRF-Chem在2019年2月3日–16日和2020年2月3日–16日进行了三个数值模拟试验, 分别为2019年气象场与MEIC-2019 (2019年中国多分辨率月度排放清单) ,2020年气象场与MEIC-2019,2020年气象场与MEIC-2020[研究方法].结果表明COVID-19封锁期间严重雾霾的原因是不利气象条件增加的PM2.5浓度大于减排减少的PM2.5浓度[重要结论]. Graphical abstract Image, graphical abstract

SUBMITTER: Zhang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7734416 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:A direct and quantitative linkage of air pollution-related health effects to emissions from different sources is critically important for decision-making. While a number of studies have attributed the PM2.5-related health impacts to emission sources, they have seldom examined the complicated nonlinear relationships between them. Here we investigate the nonlinear relationships between PM2.5-related premature mortality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, one of the most polluted regions in the world, and emissions of different pollutants from multiple sectors and regions, through a combination of chemical transport model (CTM), extended response surface model (ERSM), and concentration-response functions (CRFs). The mortalities due to both long-term and short-term exposures to PM2.5 are most sensitive to the emission reductions of primary PM2.5, followed by NH3, nonmethane volatile organic compounds and intermediate volatility organic compounds (NMVOC+IVOC). The sensitivities of long-term mortality to emissions of primary organic aerosol (POA), NMVOC+IVOC and SO2 do not change much with reduction ratio, whereas the sensitivities to primary inorganic PM2.5 (defined as all chemical components of primary PM2.5 other than POA), NH3 and NOx increase significantly with the increase of reduction ratio. The emissions of primary PM2.5, especially those from the residential and commercial sectors, contribute a larger fraction of mortality in winter (57-70%) than in other seasons (28-42%). When emissions of multiple pollutants or those from both local and regional emissions are controlled simultaneously, the overall sensitivity of long-term mortality is much larger than the arithmetic sum of the sensitivities to emissions of individual pollutants or from individual regions. This implies that a multi-pollutant, multi-sector and regional joint control strategy should be implemented to maximize the marginal health benefits. For NOx emissions, we suggest a nationwide control strategy which significantly enhances the effectiveness for reducing mortality by avoiding possible side effects when only the emissions within the BTH region are reduced.

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Impacts of the meteorological condition versus emissions reduction on the PM2.5 concentration over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei during the COVID-19 lockdown

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