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Prediction of the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes based on short-term changes in multiple risk markers.

ABSTRACT: A recent phase II clinical trial (Reducing Residual Albuminuria in Subjects with Diabetes and Nephropathy with AtRasentan trial and an identical trial in Japan (RADAR/JAPAN)) showed that the endothelin A receptor antagonist atrasentan lowers albuminuria, blood pressure, cholesterol, hemoglobin, and increases body weight in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. We previously developed an algorithm, the Parameter Response Efficacy (PRE) score, which translates short-term drug effects into predictions of long-term effects on clinical outcomes.We used the PRE score on data from the RADAR/JAPAN study to predict the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes.We performed a post-hoc analysis of the RADAR/JAPAN randomized clinical trials in which 211 patients with type-2 diabetes and nephropathy were randomly assigned to atrasentan 0.75?mg/day, 1.25?mg/day, or placebo. A PRE score was developed in a background set of completed clinical trials using multivariate Cox models. The score was applied to baseline and week-12 risk marker levels of RADAR/JAPAN participants, to predict atrasentan effects on clinical outcomes. Outcomes were defined as doubling serum creatinine or end-stage renal disease and hospitalization for heart failure.The PRE score predicted renal risk changes of -23% and -30% for atrasentan 0.75 and 1.25?mg/day, respectively. PRE scores also predicted a small non-significant increase in heart failure risk for atrasentan 0.75 and 1.25?mg/day (+2% vs. +7%). Selecting patients with >30% albuminuria reduction from baseline (responders) improved renal outcome to almost 50% risk reduction, whereas non-responders showed no renal benefit.Based on the RADAR/JAPAN study, with short-term changes in risk markers, atrasentan is expected to decrease renal risk without increased risk of heart failure. Within this population albuminuria responders appear to contribute to the predicted improvements, whereas non-responders showed no benefit. The ongoing hard outcome trial (SONAR) in type 2 diabetic patients with >30% albuminuria reduction to atrasentan will allow us to assess the validity of these predictions.

SUBMITTER: Schievink B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7735387 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes based on short-term changes in multiple risk markers.

Schievink Bauke B de Zeeuw Dick D Smink Paul A PA Andress Dennis D Brennan John J JJ Coll Blai B Correa-Rotter Ricardo R Hou Fan Fan FF Kohan Donald D Kitzman Dalane W DW Makino Hirofumi H Parving Hans-Henrik HH Perkovic Vlado V Remuzzi Giuseppe G Tobe Sheldon S Toto Robert R Hoekman Jarno J Lambers Heerspink Hiddo J HJ

European journal of preventive cardiology 20150730 7

<h4>Background</h4>A recent phase II clinical trial (Reducing Residual Albuminuria in Subjects with Diabetes and Nephropathy with AtRasentan trial and an identical trial in Japan (RADAR/JAPAN)) showed that the endothelin A receptor antagonist atrasentan lowers albuminuria, blood pressure, cholesterol, hemoglobin, and increases body weight in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. We previously developed an algorithm, the Parameter Response Efficacy (PRE) score, which translates short-ter ...[more]

PMID: 26229089

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Project description:BackgroundBesides improving glucose control, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibition with dapagliflozin reduces blood pressure, body weight and urinary albumin:creatinine ratio (UACR) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The parameter response efficacy (PRE) score was developed to predict how short-term drug effects on cardiovascular risk markers translate into long-term changes in clinical outcomes. We applied the PRE score to clinical trials of dapagliflozin to model the effect of the drug on kidney and heart failure (HF) outcomes in patients with T2DM and impaired kidney function.MethodsThe relationships between multiple risk markers and long-term outcome were determined in a background population of patients with T2DM with a multivariable Cox model. These relationships were then applied to short-term changes in risk markers observed in a pooled database of dapagliflozin trials (n?=?7) that recruited patients with albuminuria to predict the drug-induced changes to kidney and HF outcomes.ResultsA total of 132 and 350 patients had UACR?>200?mg/g and >30?mg/g at baseline, respectively, and were selected for analysis. The PRE score predicted a risk change for kidney events of -40.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) -51.7 to -29.4) and -40.4% (95% CI -48.4 to -31.1) with dapagliflozin 10?mg compared with placebo for the UACR?>200?mg/g and >30?mg/g subgroups. The predicted change in risk for HF events was -27.3% (95% CI -47.7 to -5.1) and -21.2% (95% CI -35.0 to -7.8), respectively. Simulation analyses showed that even with a smaller albuminuria-lowering effect of dapagliflozin (10% instead of the observed 35% in both groups), the estimated kidney risk reduction was still 26.5 and 26.8%, respectively.ConclusionsThe PRE score predicted clinically meaningful reductions in kidney and HF events associated with dapagliflozin therapy in patients with diabetic kidney disease. These results support a large long-term outcome trial in this population to confirm the benefits of the drug on these endpoints.

Project description:Aims: The LEADER trial demonstrated that the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP1-RA) liraglutide reduces kidney and cardiovascular (CV) risk in patients with type 2 diabetes. We previously developed a Parameter Response Efficacy (PRE) score that translates multiple short-term risk marker changes, from baseline to first available follow-up measurement, into a predicted long-term drug effect on clinical outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of the PRE score in predicting the efficacy of liraglutide in reducing the risk of kidney and CV outcomes. Methods: Short-term changes in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (BP), urinary-albumin-creatinine-ratio (UACR), hemoglobin, body weight, high-density-lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, low-density-lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and potassium were monitored in the LEADER trial. Associations between risk markers and kidney or CV outcomes were established using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model in a separate pooled database of 6,355 patients with type 2 diabetes. The regression coefficients were then applied to the short-term risk markers in the LEADER trial to predict the effects of liraglutide on kidney (defined as a composite of doubling of serum creatinine or end-stage kidney disease) and CV (defined as a composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and CV death) outcomes. Results: Liraglutide compared to placebo reduced HbA1c (1.4%), systolic BP (3.0 mmHg), UACR (13.2%), body weight (2.3 kg), hemoglobin (2.6 g/L), and increased HDL-cholesterol (0.01 mmol/L) (all p-values <0.01). Integrating multiple risk marker changes in the PRE score resulted in a predicted relative risk reduction (RRR) of 16.2% (95% CI 13.7-18.6) on kidney outcomes which was close to the observed RRR of 15.5% (95% CI -9.0-34.6). For the CV outcome, the PRE score predicted a 7.6% (95% CI 6.8-8.3) RRR, which was less than the observed 13.2% (95% CI 3.2-22.2) RRR. Conclusion: Integrating multiple short-term risk markers using the PRE score adequately predicted the effect of liraglutide on the composite kidney outcome. However, the PRE score underestimated the effect of liraglutide for the composite CV outcome, suggesting that the risk markers included in the PRE score do not fully capture the CV benefit of liraglutide.

Project description:Aims: The EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial demonstrated that the sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2) empagliflozin reduces the risk of cardiovascular (CV) and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. We previously developed the parameter response efficacy (PRE) score, which translates drug effects on multiple short-term risk markers into a predicted long-term treatment effect on clinical outcomes. The main objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of the PRE score in predicting the efficacy of empagliflozin in reducing the risk of CV and kidney outcomes. Methods: Short-term (baseline to 6-months) changes in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), urinary-albumin-creatinine-ratio (UACR), hemoglobin, body weight, high-density-lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, low-density-lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, uric acid, and potassium were determined among 7020 patients with type 2 diabetes and established CV disease in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial. The beta-coefficients, derived from a Cox proportional hazards model in a pooled database consisting of 6355 patients with type 2 diabetes, were applied to the short-term risk markers in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial to predict the empagliflozin-induced impact on CV (defined as a composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or CV death) and kidney (defined as a composite of doubling of serum creatinine or end-stage kidney disease) outcomes. Results: Empagliflozin compared to placebo reduced HbA1c (0.6%), SBP (4.2 mmHg), UACR (13.0%), body weight (2.1 kg), uric acid (20.4 μmol/L), and increased hemoglobin (6.6 g/L), LDL-cholesterol (0.1 mmol/L) and HDL-cholesterol (0.04 mmol/L) (all p<0.01). Integrating these effects in the PRE score resulted in a predicted relative risk reduction (RRR) for the CV outcome of 6.4% (95% CI 1.4-11.7), which was less than the observed 14.7% (95% CI 1.3-26.4%) RRR. For the kidney outcome, the PRE score predicted a RRR of 33.4% (95% CI 26.2-39.8); the observed RRR was 46.9% (95% CI 26.8-61.5). In a subgroup of 2,811 patients with UACR ≥30 mg/g at baseline, the PRE score predicted RRR was 40.8% (95% CI 31.2-49.1) vs. the observed RRR of 40.8% (95% CI 12.4-60.0) for the kidney outcome. Conclusions: Integrating multiple short-term risk marker changes in the PRE score underestimated the effect of empagliflozin on CV and kidney outcomes, suggesting that the currently used risk markers do not fully capture the effect of empagliflozin. In patients with increased albuminuria, the PRE score adequately predicted the effect of empagliflozin on kidney outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundAcute heart failure (AHF) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Effective patient risk stratification is essential to guiding hospitalization decisions and the clinical management of AHF. Clinical decision support systems can be used to improve predictions of mortality made in emergency care settings for the purpose of AHF risk stratification. In this study, several models for the prediction of seven-day mortality among AHF patients were developed by applying machine learning techniques to retrospective patient data from 236,275 total emergency department (ED) encounters, 1881 of which were considered positive for AHF and were used for model training and testing. The models used varying subsets of age, sex, vital signs, and laboratory values. Model performance was compared to the Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) model, a commonly used system for prediction of seven-day mortality in the ED with similar (or, in some cases, more extensive) inputs. Model performance was assessed in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, and specificity.ResultsWhen trained and tested on a large academic dataset, the best-performing model and EHMRG demonstrated test set AUROCs of 0.84 and 0.78, respectively, for prediction of seven-day mortality. Given only measurements of respiratory rate, temperature, mean arterial pressure, and FiO2, one model produced a test set AUROC of 0.83. Neither a logistic regression comparator nor a simple decision tree outperformed EHMRG.ConclusionsA model using only the measurements of four clinical variables outperforms EHMRG in the prediction of seven-day mortality in AHF. With these inputs, the model could not be replaced by logistic regression or reduced to a simple decision tree without significant performance loss. In ED settings, this minimal-input risk stratification tool may assist clinicians in making critical decisions about patient disposition by providing early and accurate insights into individual patient's risk profiles.

Project description:Combined heart and renal failure is associated with high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Anti-oxidant and anti-inflammatory, non-hematopoietic effects of erythropoietin (EPO) treatment have been proposed. Monocytes may act as biosensors of the systemic environment. We hypothesized that monocyte transcriptomes of patients with cardiorenal syndrome (CRS) reflect the pathophysiology of the CRS and respond to short-term EPO treatment at a recommended dose for treatment of renal anemia.Patients with CRS and anemia (n = 18) included in the EPOCARES trial were matched to healthy controls (n = 12). Patients were randomized to receive 50 IU/kg/week EPO or not. RNA from CD14(+)-monocytes was subjected to genome wide expression analysis (Illumina) at baseline and 18 days (3 EPO injections) after enrolment. Transcriptomes from patients were compared to healthy controls and effect of EPO treatment was evaluated within patients.In CRS patients, expression of 471 genes, including inflammation and oxidative stress related genes was different from healthy controls. Cluster analysis did not separate patients from healthy controls. The 6 patients with the highest hsCRP levels had more differentially expressed genes than the 6 patients with the lowest hsCRP levels. Analysis of the variation in log(2) ratios of all individual 18 patients indicated that 4 of the 18 patients were different from the controls, whereas the other 14 were quite similar. After short-term EPO treatment, every patient clustered to his or her own baseline transcriptome. Two week EPO administration only marginally affected expression profiles on average, however, individual gene responses were variable.In stable, treated CRS patients with mild anemia, monocyte transcriptomes were modestly altered, and indicated imprints of inflammation and oxidative stress. EPO treatment with a fixed dose has hematopoietic effects, had no appreciable beneficial actions on monocyte transcription profiles, however, could also not be associated with undesirable transcriptional responses.

Dataset Information

Prediction of the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes based on short-term changes in multiple risk markers.

Publications

Prediction of the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes based on short-term changes in multiple risk markers.

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