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A probabilistic approach to dispersal in spatially explicit meta-populations.

ABSTRACT: Meta-population and -community models have extended our understanding regarding the influence of habitat distribution, local patch dynamics, and dispersal on species distribution patterns. Currently, theoretical insights on spatial distribution patterns are limited by the dominant use of deterministic approaches for modeling species dispersal. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic, network-based framework to describe species dispersal by considering inter-patch connections as network-determined probabilistic events. We highlight important differences between a deterministic approach and our dispersal formalism. Exemplified for a meta-population, our results indicate that the proposed scheme provides a realistic relationship between dispersal rate and extinction thresholds. Furthermore, it enables us to investigate the influence of patch density on meta-population persistence and provides insight on the effects of probabilistic dispersal events on species persistence. Importantly, our formalism makes it possible to capture the transient nature of inter-patch connections, and can thereby provide short term predictions on species distribution, which might be highly relevant for projections on how climate and land use changes influence species distribution patterns.

SUBMITTER: Karnatak R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7747636 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A probabilistic approach to dispersal in spatially explicit meta-populations.

Karnatak Rajat R Wollrab Sabine S

Scientific reports 20201217 1

Meta-population and -community models have extended our understanding regarding the influence of habitat distribution, local patch dynamics, and dispersal on species distribution patterns. Currently, theoretical insights on spatial distribution patterns are limited by the dominant use of deterministic approaches for modeling species dispersal. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic, network-based framework to describe species dispersal by considering inter-patch connections as network-determ ...[more]

PMID: 33335189

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Project description:Camera traps are used increasingly to estimate population density for elusive and difficult to observe species. A standard practice for mammalian surveys is to place cameras on roads, trails, and paths to maximize detections and/or increase efficiency in the field. However, for many species it is unclear whether track-based camera surveys provide reliable estimates of population density.Understanding how the spatial arrangement of camera traps affects population density estimates is of key interest to contemporary conservationists and managers given the rapid increase in camera-based wildlife surveys.We evaluated the effect of camera-trap placement, using several survey designs, on density estimates of a widespread mesopredator, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, over a two-year period in a semi-arid conservation reserve in south-eastern Australia. Further, we used the certainty in the identity and whereabouts of individuals (via GPS collars) to assess how resighting rates of marked foxes affect density estimates using maximum likelihood spatially explicit mark-resight methods.Fox detection rates were much higher at cameras placed on tracks compared with off-track cameras, yet in the majority of sessions, camera placement had relatively little effect on point estimates of density. However, for each survey design, the precision of density estimates varied considerably across sessions, influenced heavily by the absolute number of marked foxes detected, the number of times marked foxes was resighted, and the number of detection events of unmarked foxes.Our research demonstrates that the precision of population density estimates using spatially explicit mark-resight models is sensitive to resighting rates of identifiable individuals. Nonetheless, camera surveys based either on- or off-track can provide reliable estimates of population density using spatially explicit mark-resight models. This underscores the importance of incorporating information on the spatial behavior of the subject species when planning camera-trap surveys.

Project description:BackgroundThe discovery of CRISPR-based gene editing and its application to homing-based gene drive systems has been greeted with excitement, for its potential to control mosquito-borne diseases on a wide scale, and concern, for the invasiveness and potential irreversibility of a release. Gene drive systems that display threshold-dependent behavior could potentially be used during the trial phase of this technology, or when localized control is otherwise desired, as simple models predict them to spread into partially isolated populations in a confineable manner, and to be reversible through releases of wild-type organisms. Here, we model hypothetical releases of two recently engineered threshold-dependent gene drive systems-reciprocal chromosomal translocations and a form of toxin-antidote-based underdominance known as UDMEL-to explore their ability to be confined and remediated.ResultsWe simulate releases of Aedes aegypti, the mosquito vector of dengue, Zika, and other arboviruses, in Yorkeys Knob, a suburb of Cairns, Australia, where previous biological control interventions have been undertaken on this species. We monitor spread to the neighboring suburb of Trinity Park to assess confinement. Results suggest that translocations could be introduced on a suburban scale, and remediated through releases of non-disease-transmitting male mosquitoes with release sizes on the scale of what has been previously implemented. UDMEL requires fewer releases to introduce, but more releases to remediate, including of females capable of disease transmission. Both systems are expected to be confineable to the release site; however, spillover of translocations into neighboring populations is less likely.ConclusionsOur analysis supports the use of translocations as a threshold-dependent drive system capable of spreading disease-refractory genes into Ae. aegypti populations in a confineable and reversible manner. It also highlights increased release requirements when incorporating life history and population structure into models. As the technology nears implementation, further ecological work will be essential to enhance model predictions in preparation for field trials.

Dataset Information

A probabilistic approach to dispersal in spatially explicit meta-populations.

Publications

A probabilistic approach to dispersal in spatially explicit meta-populations.

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