Dataset Information

Evolutionary model discovery of causal factors behind the socio-agricultural behavior of the Ancestral Pueblo.

ABSTRACT: Agent-based modeling of artificial societies allows for the validation and analysis of human-interpretable, causal explanations of human behavior that generate society-scale phenomena. However, parameter calibration is insufficient to conduct data-driven explorations that are adequate in evaluating the importance of causal factors that constitute agent rules that match real-world individual-scale generative behaviors. We introduce evolutionary model discovery, a framework that combines genetic programming and random forest regression to evaluate the importance of a set of causal factors hypothesized to affect the individual's decision-making process. With evolutionary model discovery, we investigated the farm plot seeking behavior of the Ancestral Pueblo of the Long House Valley simulated in the Artificial Anasazi model. We evaluated the importance of causal factors unconsidered in the original model, which we hypothesized to have affected the decision-making process. Our findings, concur with other archaeological studies on the Ancestral Pueblo communities during the Pueblo II period, which indicate the existence of cross-village polities, hierarchical organization, and dependence on the viability of the agricultural niche. Contrary to the original Artificial Anasazi model, where closeness was the sole factor driving farm plot selection, selection of higher quality land, distancing from failed farm plots, and desire for social presence are found to be more important. Finally, models updated with farm selection strategies designed by incorporating these insights showed significant improvements in accuracy and robustness over the original Artificial Anasazi model.

SUBMITTER: Gunaratne C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7748155 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evolutionary model discovery of causal factors behind the socio-agricultural behavior of the Ancestral Pueblo.

Gunaratne Chathika C Garibay Ivan I

PloS one 20201218 12

Agent-based modeling of artificial societies allows for the validation and analysis of human-interpretable, causal explanations of human behavior that generate society-scale phenomena. However, parameter calibration is insufficient to conduct data-driven explorations that are adequate in evaluating the importance of causal factors that constitute agent rules that match real-world individual-scale generative behaviors. We introduce evolutionary model discovery, a framework that combines genetic p ...[more]

PMID: 33338054

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Project description:BackgroundThe United States of America (USA), European Union (EU), Brazil and China are four of the largest agricultural producers and users of agricultural pesticides in the world. Comparing the inclination and ability of different regulatory agencies to ban or eliminate pesticides that have the most potential for harm to humans and the environment can provide a glimpse into the effectiveness of each nation's pesticide regulatory laws and oversight.MethodsThe approval status of more than 500 agricultural pesticides was identified in the USA, EU, Brazil and China and compared between nations. The amount of pesticides that were used in the USA and banned in these other nations was compiled and linear regression was used to identify trends in use.ResultsThere are 72, 17, and 11 pesticides approved for outdoor agricultural applications in the USA that are banned or in the process of complete phase out in the EU, Brazil, and China, respectively. Of the pesticides used in USA agriculture in 2016, 322 million pounds were of pesticides banned in the EU, 26 million pounds were of pesticides banned in Brazil and 40 million pounds were of pesticides banned in China. Pesticides banned in the EU account for more than a quarter of all agricultural pesticide use in the USA. The majority of pesticides banned in at least two of these three nations have not appreciably decreased in the USA over the last 25 years and almost all have stayed constant or increased over the last 10 years.ConclusionsMany pesticides still widely used in the USA, at the level of tens to hundreds of millions of pounds annually, have been banned or are being phased out in the EU, China and Brazil. Of the pesticides banned in at least two of these nations, many have been implicated in acute pesticide poisonings in the USA and some are further restricted by individual states. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) has all but abandoned its use of non-voluntary cancellations in recent years, making pesticide cancellation in the USA largely an exercise that requires consent by the regulated industry.

Project description:Diverse agricultural land uses are a typical feature of multifunctional landscapes. The uncertain change in the drivers of global land use, such as climate, market and policy technology and demography, challenges the long-term management of agricultural diversification. As these global drivers also affect smaller scales, it is important to capture the traits of regionally specific farm activities to facilitate adaptation to change. By downscaling European shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for agricultural and food systems, combined with representative concentration pathways (RCP) to regionally specific, alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios, the present study explores the major impacts of the drivers of global land use on regional agriculture by simulating farm-level decisions and identifies the socio-ecological implications for promoting diverse agricultural landscapes in 2050. A hilly orchard region in northern Switzerland was chosen as a case study to represent the multifunctional nature of Swiss agriculture. Results show that the different regionalised pathways lead to contrasting impacts on orchard meadows, production levels and biodiversity. Increased financial support for ecological measures, adequate farm labour supplies for more labour-intensive farming and consumer preferences that favour local farm produce can offset the negative impacts of climate change and commodity prices and contribute to agricultural diversification and farmland biodiversity. However, these conditions also caused a significant decline in farm production levels. This study suggests that considering a broader set of land use drivers beyond direct payments, while acknowledging potential trade-offs and diverse impacts across different farm types, is required to effectively manage and sustain diversified agricultural landscapes in the long run.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02092-5.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Few studies have specifically focused on demographic and socio-economic characteristics associated with snacking in adults, whereas their identification could be useful for defining effective public health measures. The aim of our study was to assess the associations of these factors with daily snacking behavior and its dietary quality. METHODS:This cross-sectional study included 84,692 women and 23,491 men from the NutriNet-Santé cohort study. Occurrence of snacking, energy intake from snacks, snack nutrient, and energy densities were assessed using 24-h dietary records of weekdays at baseline. Associations between socio-economic and demographic factors (age, presence of children in the household, education, income, occupation), and snacking behavior were examined using multivariable logistic regression and analysis of covariance, stratified by sex and adjusted for total daily energy intake. RESULTS:Older individuals were more likely to snack during the day in both sexes while individuals with primary education (OR = 0.79 (0.71;0.87) in women; OR = 0.71 (0.60;0.83) in men), female employees (OR = 0.94 (0.89;0.99), and self-employed women were less likely to snack during the day. Older individuals, in particular middle-aged subjects, had higher snack nutrient density, and lower energy intake and density from snacks compared with younger adults. Presence of a child in the household was associated with higher energy density, lower nutrient density (in women), and lower energy intake from snacks (in men), compared with those who lived without a child in household. In low income individuals and manual workers, snacks had lower nutrient density and higher energy content than in higher socioeconomic categories. At last, energy intake from daily snacking occasions was higher in women with low education level. CONCLUSIONS:Although snacking was less prevalent in low socioeconomic categories and young adults, their snacks had higher energy content and were of poorer nutrient density. Such findings provide useful information on mechanisms of social disparities in dietary behavior. TRIAL REGISTRATION:This study was conducted according to the guidelines laid down in the Declaration of Helsinki. All procedures were approved by the Institutional Review Board of the French Institute for Health and Medical Research (IRB Inserm No0000388FWA00005831) and the French Data Protection Authority (Commission Nationale Informatique et Libertés No.908450 and No.909216). Clinical Trial no. NCT03335644.

Dataset Information

Evolutionary model discovery of causal factors behind the socio-agricultural behavior of the Ancestral Pueblo.

Publications

Evolutionary model discovery of causal factors behind the socio-agricultural behavior of the Ancestral Pueblo.

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