Project description:Background & aimsCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has placed a significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change in HCV liver-related deaths and liver cancer, following a 3-month, 6-month, or 1-year hiatus in hepatitis elimination programs.MethodsPreviously developed models were adapted for 110 countries to include a status quo or 'no delay' scenario and a '1-year delay' scenario assuming significant disruption in interventions (screening, diagnosis, and treatment) in the year 2020. Annual country-level model outcomes were extracted, and weighted averages were used to calculate regional (WHO and World Bank Income Group) and global estimates from 2020 to 2030. The incremental annual change in outcomes was calculated by subtracting the 'no-delay' estimates from the '1-year delay' estimates.ResultsThe '1-year delay' scenario resulted in 44,800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 43,800-49,300) excess hepatocellular carcinoma cases and 72,300 (95% UI: 70,600-79,400) excess liver-related deaths, relative to the 'no-delay' scenario globally, from 2020 to 2030. Most missed treatments would be in lower-middle income countries, whereas most excess hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related deaths would be among high-income countries.ConclusionsThe impact of COVID-19 extends beyond the direct morbidity and mortality associated with exposure and infection. To mitigate the impact on viral hepatitis programming and reduce excess mortality from delayed treatment, policy makers should prioritize hepatitis programs as soon as it becomes safe to do so.Lay summaryCOVID-19 has resulted in many hepatitis elimination programs slowing or stopping altogether. A 1-year delay in hepatitis diagnosis and treatment could result in an additional 44,800 liver cancers and 72,300 deaths from HCV globally by 2030. Countries have committed to hepatitis elimination by 2030, so attention should shift back to hepatitis programming as soon as it becomes appropriate to do so.
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic necessitates healthcare restrictions that also affected ongoing hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination efforts. We assessed the value of a physician-operated HCV hotline on treatment and cure rates throughout the pandemic. All HCV patients undergoing HCV therapy at the Vienna General Hospital from 2019 to 2021 were included. An HCV hotline was established in 2019 and provided services including phone calls, text messages and voicemails. Patients were stratified by date of HCV therapy: 2019 (pre-COVID) vs. 2020/2021 (during-COVID) and use of the HCV hotline: users vs. non-users. Overall, 220 patients were included (pre-COVID: n = 91 vs. during-COVID: n = 129). The prevalence of intravenous drug use (60.5%) and alcohol abuse (24.8%) was high during COVID. During COVID, the number of DAA treatment starts declined by 24.2% (n = 69) in 2020 and by 34.1% (n = 60) in 2021 vs. pre-COVID (n = 91, 100%). Significantly more patients used the HCV hotline during-COVID (95.3%) vs. pre-COVID (65.9%; p < .001). Sustained virologic response (SVR) was 84.6% pre-COVID and 86.0% during-COVID. HCV hotline users achieved higher SVR rates during-COVID (88.2% vs. 33.3%, p = .004), but also pre-COVID (96.7% vs. 61.3%, p < .001) compared with non-users. Considering only patients with completed DAA treatments, SVR rates remained similarly high during-COVID (96.9%) versus pre-COVID (98.1%). HCV treatment initiations decreased during-COVID but importantly, nearly all DAA-treated HCV patients used the HCV hotline during the COVID pandemic. Overall, the SVR rate remained at 88.2% during COVID and was particularly high in HCV phone users-most likely due to facilitation of adherence.
Project description:ObjectivesThe aim was to determine the direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Spain's health budget.MethodsBudget impact analyses based on retrospective data from patients with suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) admitted to a Spanish hospital between February 26 and May 21, 2020. Direct medical costs from the perspective of the hospital were calculated. We analyzed diagnostic tests, drugs, medical and nursing care, and isolation ward and ICU stays for three cohorts: patients seen in the emergency room only, hospitalized patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, and patients who tested negative.ResultsThe impact on the hospital's budget for the 3 months was calculated at €15,633,180, 97.4% of which was related to health care and hospitalization. ICU stays accounted for 5.3% of the total costs. The mean cost per patient was €10,744. The main costs were staffing costs (10,131 to 11,357 €/patient for physicians and 10,274 to 11,215 €/patient for nurses). Scenario analysis showed that the range of hospital expenditure was between €14,693,256 and €16,524,924. The median impact of the pandemic on the Spanish health budget in the sensitivity analysis using bootstrapped individual data was €9357 million (interquartile range [IQR], 9071 to 9689) for the conservative scenario (113,588 hospital admissions and 11,664 ICU admissions) and €10,385 million (IQR, 110,030 to 10,758) for the worst-case scenario (including suspected cases).ConclusionThe impact of COVID-19 on the Spanish public health budget (12.3% of total public health expenditure) is greater than multiple sclerosis, cancer and diabetes cost.
Project description:BackgroundThe impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis and management of tuberculosis (TB) patients is unknown.MethodsParticipating centres completed a structured web-based survey regarding changes to TB patient management during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study also included data from participating centres on patients aged ≥18 diagnosed with TB in 2 periods: March 15 to June 30, 2020 and March 15 to June 30, 2019. Clinical variables and information about patient household contacts were retrospectively collected.ResultsA total of 7 (70%) TB units reported changes in their usual TB team operations. Across both periods of study, 169 patients were diagnosed with active TB (90 in 2019, 79 in 2020). Patients diagnosed in 2020 showed more frequent bilateral lesions in chest X-ray than patients diagnosed in 2019 (P = 0.004). There was a higher percentage of latent TB infection and active TB among children in households of patients diagnosed in 2020, compared with 2019 (P = 0.001).ConclusionsThe COVID-19 pandemic has caused substantial changes in TB care. TB patients diagnosed during the COVID-19 pandemic showed more extended pulmonary forms. The increase in latent TB infection and active TB in children of patient households could reflect increased household transmission due to anti-COVID-19 measures.
Project description:The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused an unprecedented clinical situation. A retrospective cross-sectional study was designed with the aim to evaluate psychiatric emergencies from March 14 to May 1, 2020, coinciding with the start of the emergency state and the lockdown until the attenuation of the confinement. Data obtained during this period were compared with the emergencies attended in the same period of 2019. A total of 213 psychiatric emergencies were attended in 2020 compared with 367 in 2019. The mean number of emergencies per day was significantly lower during the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 (M=4.35, SD= 2.04) vs. the same period in 2019 (M=7.50, SD= 3.18). A higher percentage of patients with schizo/psychotic disorders (34.3% in 2020, vs. 24.3% in 2019), as well as a lower percentage of patients with anxiety/adaptive disorders (25.4% in 2020 vs. 35.4% in 2019) was observed during the outbreak. A significant lower mean discharge/emergency ratio (M=42.17, SD= 26.94 in 2020 vs. M=63.43, SD= 17.64 in 2019) and a higher referral to Internal Medicine/emergency ratio (M=20.55, SD= 22.16 in 2020 vs. M=3.32, SD= 6.63 in 2019) was observed. The results suggest important changes in psychiatric emergencies during the most critical period of the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain.
Project description:BackgroundAs of 2019, the United States (US) was not on track to achieve targets for elimination, due to increasing incidence and treatment barriers. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted HCV services globally and in the US. As healthcare services normalize, there is an urgent need to reassess progress and evaluate scenarios that restore a pathway toward HCV elimination.MethodsWe updated a validated Markov model to estimate HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the US. Five scenarios were developed to bookend possible HCV outcomes in the wake of the pandemic. These included 1) return to pre-COVID-19 treatment forecasts; 2) achieve elimination targets through treatment and harm reduction; 3) long-term treatment disruptions; 4/5) achieve elimination targets through increased treatment without increased harm reduction, starting in either 2022 or 2025.FindingsFrom 2014-2019, more than 1.2 million patients were treated for HCV in the US. Elimination targets in 2030 could be achieved in the US by treating an additional 3.2-3.3 million patients from 2020 to 2030, or by preventing new infections through expanded harm reduction programs and treating up to 2.7 million patients. Intervention scenarios could prevent over 30,000 HCC cases and over 29,000 liver-related deaths.InterpretationThe US has made strides toward HCV elimination, but gains could be lost in the wake of the pandemic. However, it is still possible to avert nearly 30,000 deaths through increased harm reduction and increased treatment rates. This requires a coordinated effort from the entire HCV community.
Project description:BackgroundYoung adult (18-30 years) people who inject drugs (PWID) face high hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence. In San Francisco, where >60% of PWID lack stable housing, barriers hinder HCV treatment access. We assessed progress towards the World Health Organization's (WHO) HCV elimination goal of an 80% reduction in incidence over 2015-2030, focusing on young (YPWID) and unstably housed PWID in San Francisco.MethodsWe developed a dynamic HCV transmission model among PWID, parameterized and calibrated using bio-behavioural survey datasets from San Francisco. This included 2018 estimates for the antibody-prevalence among PWID (77%) and care cascade estimates for HCV for YPWID (72% aware of their status and 33% ever initiating treatment). Based on programmatic data, we assumed a 53.8% reduction in testing and 40.7% decrease in treatment from 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which partially rebounded from April 2021 with testing rates then being 31.1% lower than pre-pandemic rates and treatment numbers being 19.5% lower. We simulated different scenarios of how services changed after the pandemic to project whether elimination goals would be met.ResultsContinuing post-pandemic rates of testing and treatment, the model projects an 83.3% (95% credibility interval [95% CrI]:60.6-96.9%) decrease in incidence among PWID over 2015-2030 to 1.5/100pyrs (95% CrI:0.3-4.4) in 2030. The probability of achieving the elimination goal by 2030 is 62.0%. Among YPWID and unstably housed PWID, the probability of achieving the elimination goal by 2030 is 54.8 and 67.6%, respectively. Importantly, further increasing testing and treatment rates to pre-pandemic levels by 2025 only results in a small increase in the probability (67.5%) of the elimination goal being achieved among all PWID by 2030, while increased coverage of medication for opioid use disorder among YPWID and/or housing interventions results in the probability of achieving elimination increasing to over 75%.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic impeded progress toward achieving HCV elimination. Our findings indicate that existing partial rebounds in HCV testing and treatment may achieve the elimination goal by 2030, with an additional scale-up of interventions aimed at YPWID or unstably housed PWID ensuring San Francisco is likely to achieve elimination by 2030.
Project description:BackgroundThe pandemic caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has substantially changed the activity in Spanish healthcare centers. Residents who face pandemics are vulnerable physicians with different knowledge and experience.ObjectivesThis study aimed to determine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the Anesthesia and Critical Care residents and to establish its formative and personal consequences.MethodsA 35-question digital survey was developed, and was distributed among Anesthesia and Critical Care residents in Spain. The quantitative variable "Objective Formative Impact Score" (PIOF) was defined, being proportional to the impact on formative routines.ResultsSeveral parameters were associated to a higher formative impact, such as the exposition to patients with COVID-19 (P = 0,020), an increase in the autonomy (P = 0,001), fear to contagion due to lack of protective equipment (P = 0,003), working in higher incidence areas (P < 0,001), being assigned to COVID-19 critical care units (P < 0,001), or to other departments different from Anesthesia and Critical Care. Residents experienced feelings of loneliness from the social distancing or ethical conflicts when working in suboptimal conditions.ConclusionsCOVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on Anesthesia and Critical Care residents both personally and formatively. The designed parameter PIOF brings an objective value about residents' formation.
Project description:BackgroundStudies evaluating the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on public healthcare systems are limited, particularly in cancer management. As no such studies have been carried out in Spain, our objective is to describe and quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer patients in Spanish hospitals during the first wave of the pandemic.Materials and methodsThis retrospective, multicenter, nationwide study collected information from hospital departments treating oncology patients. An electronic questionnaire comparing outcomes and management of oncohematological patients for the March-June 2019 and March-June 2020 periods was used.ResultsInformation from 78 departments (36 tertiary hospitals) was analyzed. Forty-four departments implemented adapted protocols during March 2020. Most of these (n = 38/44; 86.4%) carried out COVID-19 triage, while 26 of 44 (59.1%) carried out onsite polymerase chain reaction tests for clinically suspected cases. A shift from in-person to telephone visits was observed in 43 of 44 (97.7%) departments. Comparing the March-June 2019 and March-June 2020 periods, the number of new patients decreased by 20.8% (from 160.2 to 126.4). Decreases were also seen in the mean number of total (2858.2 versus 1686.1) and cancer (465.5 versus 367.2) biopsies, as well as the mean number of bone marrow biopsies (30.5 versus 18.6). Concerning the number of patients visiting specific cancer care departments, a decrease from 2019 to 2020 was seen for mean number of chemotherapy treatments (712.7 versus 643.8) and radiation therapy (2169.9 versus 2139.9). Finally, a reduction from 2019 to 2020 of 12.9% (from 8.6 to 7.4) in the mean number of patients included in clinical trials was noted.ConclusionsThis study provides the first comprehensive data concerning the impact of COVID-19 on cancer care in Spain. The pandemic caused a 20.8% decrease in newly diagnosed patients, which may impact future outcomes. Measures must be taken to ensure cancer management receives priority in times of healthcare emergencies.