Dataset Information

High-Frequency Changes in Shopping Behaviours, Promotions and the Measurement of Inflation: Evidence from the Great Lockdown.

ABSTRACT: We use real-time scanner data in Great Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the drivers of the inflationary spike at the beginning of lockdown and to quantify the impact of high-frequency changes in shopping behaviours and promotions on inflation measurement. Although changes in product-level expenditure shares were unusually high during lockdown, we find that the induced bias in price indices that do not account for expenditure switching is not larger than in prior years. We also document substantial consumer switching towards online shopping and across retailers, but show this was not a key driver of the inflationary spike. In contrast, a reduction in price and quantity promotions was key to driving higher inflation, and lower use of promotions by low-income consumers explains why they experienced moderately lower inflation. Overall, changes in shopping behaviours played only a minor role in driving higher inflation during lockdown; higher prices were the main cause, in particular through a reduced frequency of promotions.

SUBMITTER: Jaravel X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7753338 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

High-Frequency Changes in Shopping Behaviours, Promotions and the Measurement of Inflation: Evidence from the Great Lockdown.

Jaravel Xavier X O'Connell Martin M

Fiscal studies 20200901 3

We use real-time scanner data in Great Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the drivers of the inflationary spike at the beginning of lockdown and to quantify the impact of high-frequency changes in shopping behaviours and promotions on inflation measurement. Although changes in product-level expenditure shares were unusually high during lockdown, we find that the induced bias in price indices that do not account for expenditure switching is not larger than in prior years. We also ...[more]

PMID: 33362316

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Project description:BackgroundThere is a growing concern, but limited evidence, that price promotions contribute to a poor diet and the social patterning of diet-related disease.ObjectiveWe examined the following questions: 1) Are less-healthy foods more likely to be promoted than healthier foods? 2) Are consumers more responsive to promotions on less-healthy products? 3) Are there socioeconomic differences in food purchases in response to price promotions?DesignWith the use of hierarchical regression, we analyzed data on purchases of 11,323 products within 135 food and beverage categories from 26,986 households in Great Britain during 2010. Major supermarkets operated the same price promotions in all branches. The number of stores that offered price promotions on each product for each week was used to measure the frequency of price promotions. We assessed the healthiness of each product by using a nutrient profiling (NP) model.ResultsA total of 6788 products (60%) were in healthier categories and 4535 products (40%) were in less-healthy categories. There was no significant gap in the frequency of promotion by the healthiness of products neither within nor between categories. However, after we controlled for the reference price, price discount rate, and brand-specific effects, the sales uplift arising from price promotions was larger in less-healthy than in healthier categories; a 1-SD point increase in the category mean NP score, implying the category becomes less healthy, was associated with an additional 7.7-percentage point increase in sales (from 27.3% to 35.0%; P < 0.01). The magnitude of the sales uplift from promotions was larger for higher-socioeconomic status (SES) groups than for lower ones (34.6% for the high-SES group, 28.1% for the middle-SES group, and 23.1% for the low-SES group). Finally, there was no significant SES gap in the absolute volume of purchases of less-healthy foods made on promotion.ConclusionAttempts to limit promotions on less-healthy foods could improve the population diet but would be unlikely to reduce health inequalities arising from poorer diets in low-socioeconomic groups.

Dataset Information

High-Frequency Changes in Shopping Behaviours, Promotions and the Measurement of Inflation: Evidence from the Great Lockdown.

Publications

High-Frequency Changes in Shopping Behaviours, Promotions and the Measurement of Inflation: Evidence from the Great Lockdown.

Similar Datasets

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