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Global risk of invasion by Bactrocera zonata: Implications on horticultural crop production under changing climatic conditions.

ABSTRACT: The peach fruit fly Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is an important invasive species causing substantial losses to the horticulture industry worldwide. Despite the severe economic impact caused by this pest in its native and invaded range, information on its potential range expansion under changing climate remains largely unknown. In this study, we employed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach to predict the global potential climatic suitability of B. zonata under current climate and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the year 2050. Outputs from MaxEnt were merged with Spatial Production Allocation Model. A natural dispersal model using Gaussian dispersal kernel was developed. The Areas Under Curves generated by MaxEnt were greater than 0.92 for both current and future climate change scenarios, indicating satisfactory performances of the models. Mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of driest month and temperature seasonality significantly influenced the potential establishment of B. zonata. The models indicated high climatic suitability in tropical and subtropical areas in Asia and Africa, where the species has already been recorded. Suitable areas were predicted in West, East and Central Africa and to a lesser extent in Central and South America. Future climatic scenarios models, RCP 4.5 and 8.5 show significant potential range expansion of B. zonata in Western Sahara, while RCP 4.5 highlighted expansion in Southern Africa. Contrarily, RCP 2.6 showed considerable decrease in B. zonata range expansion in Central, East and West Africa. There was increased climatic suitability of B. zonata in Egypt and Middle East under RCP 6.0. The dispersal model revealed that B. zonata could spread widely within its vicinity with decreasing infestation rates away from the source points. Our findings can help to guide biosecurity agencies in decision-making and serve as an early warning tool to safeguard against the pest invasion into unaffected areas.

SUBMITTER: Zingore KM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7757907 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global risk of invasion by Bactrocera zonata: Implications on horticultural crop production under changing climatic conditions.

Zingore Kumbirai M KM Sithole George G Abdel-Rahman Elfatih M EM Mohamed Samira A SA Ekesi Sunday S Tanga Chrysantus M CM Mahmoud Mohammed E E MEE

PloS one 20201223 12

The peach fruit fly Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is an important invasive species causing substantial losses to the horticulture industry worldwide. Despite the severe economic impact caused by this pest in its native and invaded range, information on its potential range expansion under changing climate remains largely unknown. In this study, we employed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach to predict the global potential climatic suitability of B. zonata under curre ...[more]

PMID: 33362266

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Project description:Insects, similarly to other small terrestrial invertebrates, are particularly susceptible to climatic stress. Physiological adjustments to cope with the environment (i.e., acclimation) together with genetic makeup eventually determine the tolerance of a species to climatic extremes, and constrain its distribution. Temperature and desiccation resistance in insects are both conditioned by acclimation and may be interconnected, particularly for species inhabiting xeric environments. We determined the effect of temperature acclimation on desiccation resistance of the peach fruit fly (Bactrocera zonata, Tephritidae) - an invasive, polyphagous pest, currently spreading through both xeric and mesic environments in Africa and the Eurasian continent. Following acclimation at three constant temperatures (20, 25, and 30°C), the survival of adult flies deprived of food and water was monitored in extreme dry and humid conditions (<10 and >90% relative humidity, respectively). We found that flies acclimated at higher temperatures were significantly heavier, and contained more lipids and protein. Acclimation temperature significantly and similarly affected the survival of males and females at both high and low humidity conditions. In both cases, flies maintained at 30°C survived longer compared to 20 and 25°C - habituated counterparts. Regardless of the effect of acclimation temperature on survival, overall life expectancy was significantly shortened when flies were assayed under desiccating conditions. Additionally, our experiments indicate no significant difference in survival patterns between males and females, and that acclimation temperature had similar effects after both short (5-10 days) and long (11-20 days) acclimation periods. We conclude that acclimation at 30°C prolongs the survival of B. zonata, regardless of ambient humidity levels. Temperature probably affected survival through modulating feeding and metabolism, allowing for accumulation of larger energetic reserves, which in turn, promoted a greater ability to resist starvation, and possibly desiccation as well. Our study set the grounds for understanding the phenotypic plasticity of B. zonata from the hydric perspective, and for further evaluating the invasion potential of this pest.

Dataset Information

Global risk of invasion by Bactrocera zonata: Implications on horticultural crop production under changing climatic conditions.

Publications

Global risk of invasion by Bactrocera zonata: Implications on horticultural crop production under changing climatic conditions.

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